..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Michael Wilmington

July 7, 2004

 

To: MoveOn PAC
From: Stan Greenberg and Anna Greenberg
RE: Viewership of Fahrenheit 9/11

Fahrenheit 9/11 is garnering wide attention nationally with almost half of all voters saying they have seen it (6 percent) or saying they intend to see it (38 percent). Just over half of voters say that they do not intend to see the movie. Potential moviegoers represent a broad and diverse slice of the electorate and are spread across the country including in the battleground states. Clearly, as the movie expands to more screens, the reach of the movie will grow.

Viewers of Fahrenheit 9/11 are strongly supporting John Kerry (86 percent) over George Bush (13 percent), but the audience for the movie is broader. Fully 23 percent of voters who intend to see the movie are Bush voters and 10 percent are either supporting Nader or are undecided. And, one-fifth of those who self-identify as Bush voters say they have seen (2 percent) or intend to see the film (18 percent). Potential moviegoers trend Democratic (57 percent versus 66 percent among actual viewers), but 26 percent call themselves Independent and 16 percent call themselves Republican. In fact, 42 percent of Independents say they have seen (5 percent) or intend on seeing (37 percent) Fahrenheit 9/11.

The following results are based on a national survey of 1,000 likely voters fielded between June 28 and July 1, 2004. There is a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
This represents 38 percent of those who have not yet seen the movie.

FAHRENHEIT 9/11 AND VOTE CHOICE (percentage responding)
	Total	Saw Movie	Intend To See
Kerry	44	86	68
Bush	47	13	23
Nader	4	-	5
Undecided	5	-	5

 

FAHRENHEIT 9/11 AND PARTISANSHIP (percentage responding)
	Total	Democrats	Independents	Republicans
Saw Movie	6	4	5	2
Intend To See	38	61	37	17

Actual and potential Fahrenheit 9/11 viewers are geographically dispersed and represent a broad range of voters. For example, 40 percent of all voters are found in battleground states; 35 percent of actual viewers and 41 percent of all potential viewers are also found in battleground states.

Moviegoers and potential viewers of the movie are diverse. Actual attendees tend to be younger (32 percent under 30 years) than potential viewers (19 percent under 30 years) and better educated (51 percent college graduates versus 45 percent college graduates). But potential viewers are not that distinct from the overall electorate and fully a quarter is older women (23 percent) or women without a college education (28 percent), some of the most important swing voters in the electorate.

FAHRENHEIT 9/11 AND GEOGRAPHY (percentage responding)
	Total	Saw Movie	Intend To See
Battleground State	40	35	41
Red State	33	33	29
Blue State	27	32	29

 

FAHRENHEIT 9/11 AND AGE (percentage responding)
	Total	Saw Movie	Intend To See
18 to 29 years old	13	32	19
30 to 39 years old	16	10	16
40 to 49 years old	22	24	22
50 to 64 years old	27	22	29
Over 64 years old	21	11	14

FAHRENHEIT 9/11 AND EDUCATION (percentage responding)
	Total	Saw Movie	Intend To See
High school or less	30	18	26
Some college	29	30	28
College graduate	41	51	45