April 28, 2003

Commentary
by David Poland
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The New Oscar Schedule For 2004
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It's a doozy, folks!

The good folks at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences did pretty much exactly what I expected going into this Oscar season. They figured out where they thought the Golden Globes would be and closed their nominating process... not the week before the Globes... not a few days before The Globes... but precisely one day before the presumed date of the 2004 Golden Globes.

Now if the Hollywood Foreign Press wants to be seen as the most influential pre-Oscar "primary," they are going to have to move their awards ceremony to an insanely early January 11 date. (I did a story on the possible awards date movement proliferation back on January 23.)

Already, Oscar consultants are tugging at their hair, realizing that they have only two full weekends between the end of the year and the close of nominations to get Academy members to see their movies so that they have a shot at nominations.

Specifically, studios now have only 15 days between the shipping of nomination ballots on January 2 and the close of voting on January 17 to get their movies set. Worse, the holiday vacation period will actually end on the January 5, meaning that for vacationing voters, the studios have only one full weekend to get potential voters into theaters. January 9, 10 and 11 are suddenly the most significant Oscar days of the year, leaving little room for error... or thought.

Last year, such a close shave would have probably pushed the eventual winner of three of the six top awards, The Pianist, right out of the race. How? The early Academy screenings of The Pianist were not particularly well attended. But the film gained late momentum and got a bunch of nominations and, with more time, three major upset wins.

Oscar pros will tell you that getting voters to see their movies is the greatest challenge. Oscar voters too. And that effort has now gotten exponentially harder.

For every major tool removed for the better by the date shift (see: The Globes as primary), another good tool is lost (see: lots of talent screenings at the guilds). The next huge announcement from the Academy will be its rules for studios regarding shipping "For Your Consideration" DVDs. The hum out there is that we are looking at mid-October.

The biggest winners in this change will be:

1. Studio Oscar Budgets - Spending may be hotter and heavier earlier in the season this year. But by taking a month out of the Oscar Phase One marketing period (pre-nominations), studios should be able to save millions. Besides time issues, the strategy of piling up Christmas week releases should be all but forgotten by everyone except Miramax this year. This will save marketing money - December releasing is very expensive - and give studio execs a good excuse to push late finishing films into the next year instead of working overtime to make the Oscar cut.

2. The Toronto International Film Festival - The launching pad for films that need help from the press will become more important than ever.

3. The Critics Groups - With The Golden Globes presumably taken back in value a bit, December critics awards will become more significant than they've been in years.

4. The Hollywood Film Festival - A really lame, commercially driven event that was used to launch a few titles this year could become a major, major industry event. Scheduled for October 15-20, 2003, this event could become the launch pad for 10 or more serious Oscar contenders.

5. The consultant who figures out a workable strategy for the new dates - If Lord of the Rings: Return of the King does dominate this year's Oscars, this whole year will be seen as a practice run. But if someone can figure out how to break through, even if it is just to grab a bunch of nominations against the odds, the latest style fad in chasing Oscar will be set.

The Whole Schedule From The Academy