..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Michael Wilmington

Nothing New, Nothing Old...
A Whole Lot of Nothing

We’re getting well into the month of October, and nothing of note has popped up on the 2005 Oscar radar to produce shock and awe.

All the way back in February you could easily observe Brokeback Mountain, Memoirs of a Geisha, The New World, Walk the Line, Jarhead, All the King’s Men, King Kong, In Her Shoes, Match Point, A History of Violence, Syriana, and North Country (then under the title Class Action) as likely awards contenders come year’s end. Now, eight months later, it’s still the same films.

Last year, Million Dollar Baby came from out of nowhere, wrapping a summer shoot, stirring some vague murmurs at the beginning of the fall, then exploding as the frontrunner by the end of the year. This year’s comparison study (release-wise) - Steven Spielberg’s Munich - has been a known factor ever since the director expressed interest in making the film some years back. The moment Universal announced it at the beginning of summer that it was slated a December release, the film zipped to the top of everyone’s Oscar predictions. Spielberg began shooting the day War of the Worlds was released, and filming wrapped on October 4. It’s been out there, observed, anticipated.

Some might consider the recent swell of critical applause regarding Philip Seymour Hoffman and Capote to be something of an unexpected turn of events, but most prognosticators who glance at the race as far out as a year in advance had their eye on Hoffman in this, an obvious Oscar-bait role. Perhaps Clifton Collins, Jr.’s endearing supporting turn as Perry Smith was unexpected in some regard, but it isn’t a level of surprise equivalent to a true “out of the blue” contender.

Cannes stirred a frenzy over The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada – and that was perhaps the last “new” addition to the awards season – but with Sony Pictures Classics’ adamantly fighting for Capote, which fell from the UA treasure chest into their lap in the Sony/MGM takeover, it seems Tommy Lee Jones’ late-sprouter might become a non-issue.

The Family Stone, were it to be handled correctly and with the prestige it deserves, would be quite applicable as a “surprise” in this year of Oscar. But it’s yet to be seen whether the film ends up positioned as a formidable contender or merely a holiday family film-going event – or even that, to be truthful.

A surprise could still be lurking, obviously. But then, it’s October, and most of the cards are being placed on the table. It may be a bit too late to consider the likelihood of a new contender springing onto the scene, or even the likelihood of a 2006 hopeful being tossed into this year’s ring.

No matter what happens, doom is in order for many of the sixteen titles above. Very few people, if any, have seen Memoirs of a Geisha, All the King’s Men, or Jarhead. We already saw the downfall of Elizabethtown, but perhaps one of these films could follow.

At this point, most chalk Munich up as the frontrunner for wins across the board, but the reality of the situation is that we just don’t know. Who takes the Best Picture prize if it’s not Munich? Who takes Best Director if not Steven Spielberg? Things really get exciting when imagined on those terms.

Once the National Board of Review stirs the pot, things will be under way. That group – despite typically giving awards to “best catered” rather than best in show – generally sets the stage for the awards season in some way, shape or form. Brokeback Mountain seems their cup of tea this year. For whatever reason, they tend to skew sexual and, at many times, homosexual. But what happens if they go the route of Woody Allen and Match Point for the top of their list? No one’s giving Allen’s film much awards credence beyond screenplay at the moment, but all it takes is one or two major precursor notices like that to push it further into the race.

And where will the New York Film Critics Circle rally? Good Night, and Good Luck obviously looks like a flick they’d fancy. And George Clooney’s film is already becoming one of the most critically acclaimed of the year, making some take notice of its Best Picture potential. But then, didn’t the same thing occur two years ago when those in the journalistic fraternity offered award after award Peter Sarsgaard’s way for his integrity-filled performance in Shattered Glass?

Journalists love films about journalism. And they love characters like Edward R. Murrow and Chuck Lane. David Straithairn could take nearly every critical award in the book and still not be seen as a lock by any stretch, given the givens.

That would provide some excitement, no? Frontrunners proving to be otherwise leaves the potential for dark horses to rise up in their midst.

Obscurity reigning supreme would be the toast of the season at this point. Neil Jordan, Gus Van Sant, Tommy Lee Jones, and Andrew Niccol all have films in play that aren’t typical Academy fodder. How about random recognition of the fringe?

On the other hand, if the marginal stories are out of the question, how about some recognition of popcorn excellence – something brilliant and wholly commercial staking a huge claim with AMPAS? Batman Begins taking down anything in the major categories would be an exhilarating and commendable gesture.

And what about the notion of indie success stories filling up the Best Picture line-up like we saw in 1996? Imagine a (deserving) final ballot that included Hustle & Flow, March of the Penguins, Good Night, and Good Luck, The Family Stone, and Crash (this one not being so far-fetched as the season progresses).

Perhaps, in the end, the long, slow haul to this year’s nominations announcement will be the set-up for a valiant and exhaustive month of awards fever. Maybe the story this year will be in the Academy’s balloting decisions in February as opposed to their balloting decisions in January. Or, perhaps Munich will sweep the majors, Memoirs of a Geisha will sweep the techs, and we’ll all sleep through the ceremony. In either case, this year is part of a continuing state of flux for the Academy. The stage is set for either a break from convention or an adherence to it.

I’ll be here every week until then, trying to figure it all out.

October 18, 2005

Previous Oscartown Columns
9/01/05 - A Brave New 'Wood?

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