..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

18 Weeks To Go
The Golden Undies

This year’s season is slooooowly rolling out… which is ironic, given that all but four of the major contenders have been seen… and one of them, Nine, rolls out for junketeers this Friday.

But already, journalists already are screaming endlessly about their favorites, one even going as far (as crazy?) as guessing at the winners. But the tough part about that is that many of the people and films that should be under serious consideration in first season of 10 Best Picture nominees are being overlooked… though many crazy notions - like This Is It for Best Picture (it would completely deserve sound and editing nods) - are getting attention.

And so, even at this very late date, I find myself compelled to point out some longshots that should not be or may not be so long.

The Newbies

Last minute entries by Sony Classics and Fox Searchlight are no jokes in terms of nominations. Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart is looking like a strong bet to push to the top of what looks to be one of the weaker Best Actor races in years. But he is less likely, in my opinion, to go there than Christopher Plummer, who is ready for his career achievement nomination for a beautiful, nuanced, loveable turn as Tolstoy in Michael Hoffman’s The Last Station.

And The Last Station is not likely to stop there. Not only is Helen Mirren an easy choice for a Best Actress nomination, but Best Picture, in a group of ten, is not too much of a reach. SPC’s big dog in the race is An Education and it has the very real chance at 7 or 8 nominations. But The Last Station, which will never be a big commercial film for teens, is practically precision-measured for success with the only audience that matters in this situation… Oscar voters. It’s not a film that feels like it’s begging for it… but two older legendary thespians in surprisingly fun and frisky roles in a movie about real ideas.

By the way, Crazy Heart is probably not a one nod movie either. Best Song, assuming that at least some of the T Bone Burnett songs are new for the film, could be hit by 2 or 3 from this film, with one from The Princess & the Frog and the new song from Nine.

The Actors

Jeremy Renner is being talked about, but the lack of aggression by Summit for his turn in The Hurt Locker keeps him a major underdog.

Michael Stuhlbarg, likewise, has some buzz, but the understated nature of his turn combined with the ensemble feel of the film, is a danger signal.

Peter Saarsgard is the lead male of An Education. His performance makes the movie work, giving Carey Mulligan’s sweet vulnerability and sexy willfulness work.

Matt Damon in The Informant! gives the kind of turn that turns his movie star status upside down. He is truly brilliant. But audiences couldn’t quite figure out what the movie is meant to be.

Sam Rockwell is one of those actors who never quite gets his due. In Moon, he manages to make multiple characters – all the same guy, in theory, but different – feel real. It’s another great small performance and one of these days, Rockwell will get his due.

Viggo Mortensen seems to find challenges for himself. And The Road is a big one. Most of the film is just him and a young actor, playing his son, traveling together. He has to show love and fear and hope and vulnerability and violent strength, all while hiding behind a big, bushy beard. I think it’s his best work yet and it would be a shame if a movie that intimidates some viewers is not viewed enough to put him right in the center of the race.

The Actresses

Rachel Weisz lets it all hang out in The Brothers Bloom. She shows all kinds of crazy skills, but mostly, she charms the viewer in a way reminiscent of young Elaine May, but with the beauty of a movie star.

Shohreh Agdashloo is the rock, so to speak, in the very hard-to-watch, powerful The Stoning of Soraya M. Agdashloo is well known to awards voters, but this movie may be too hard for voters to keep in the DVD player long enough to seriously consider her weighty turn… not because of the quality of the film, but the content.

The Supporting Actresses

Catherine O’Hara plays, perhaps, the most difficult role in the brilliant and underappreciated Where The Wild Things Are. Judith is a tough, tough lady. And O’Hara never lets up. It’s a fearless performance, even if she never stepped a foot on the set, recording her performance in the comfort of a sound booth. Quite brilliant.

Julianne Moore is no longer considered a long shot here, but to my eye, she still is… but man, is she a joy to watch. She is the one element in Tom Ford’s work here to be let loose to be BIG. And she relishes every minute of it.

The Supporting Actors

Tobey Maguire may not be seen as an underdog, but with all the attention at Lionsgate on Precious, his startling turn as the brother who they think was killed in action will have to fight to get traction, but is as worthy as any performance this year and in Maguire’s career. When Maguire is at his best, there seems to be no space at all between his soul and his eyes. That’s what Jim Sheridan got from him here.

Quinton Aaron gives an understated, but remarkably emotional performance into The Blind Side. It’s not nearly as easy as it looks. For the most part, he gives a silent performance, but he manages to let you into his character’s experience with just his eyes. The comparison, for better or for worse, is Michael Clarke Duncan in The Green Mile. Duncan, who turned out to be a deft comedian in a giant body, had a showier role as a character who could not hide his emotions. But Aaron’s gift for withholding emotion to those around him while letting us feel him pain… and the thrill in the film when we see his joys… should put him in contention against all expectations.

Peter Capaldi blisters as Malcolm Tucker in In The Loop. He can take on any comer, from the loudest, toughest adversary to a moment of silence that demands a vicious response. In a truly great movie that itself deserves a nomination for Best Picture, full of great performances that take advantage of great writing, Capaldi takes the crown.

Clifton Collins, Jr. gives another great, understated performance in the otherwise forgettable Sunshine Cleaning… and he does it with one hand tied behind his back.

James Gandolfini as Carol in Where The Wild Things Are gives a performance of remarkable emotional range. Given that all he has is his voice and the visuals of the performance are being created by others, it is still true that his voice is what brings Carol the full range from joy to deep pain and everything in between. What Gandolfini brings off with a little crack in his voice when he speaks… fuggeddaboudit.

Jackie Earle Haley really deserves a nomination for his work in Watchmen. With everything going on around him, Haley created an indelible character, even with a mask on for most of the movie. Really spectacular work and WB should not forget to remind people just how great he was in a film most Academy members will not have seen.

Tom Waits as The Devil (though not in title) in The Imaginarium of Dr Parnasus gives one of those performances that leaves audiences twinkling while watching a movie that twinkles you to within an inch of your life. Perfect casting. Wonderful performance.

Fred Melamed is Sy Abelman in A Serious Man, playing the kind of role you would normally see the Coens give John Turturro. He’s odd, quotable, and unforgettable. This is a film of great performances, including supporting actor Richard Kind. But people will be doing Sy Abelman imitations for a long time to come.

Benoît Poelvoorde is tremendous as the aggressor/cuckold of Coco Before Chanel. He is a natural charmer, but he also has to do bad things and still feel real and likeable… and he does it without ever breaking a sweat.

Anthony Mackie/Brian Geraghty – The two great supporting performances of The Hurt Locker may have a hard time getting above the clutter. The two roles couldn’t be more different, but both guys felt raw and real and like you knew them in just minutes of on-screen time.

Karl Urban as Bones McCoy may have been channeling DeForrest Kelley, but he just did it so very well that he pretty much stole the very big and fast moving show from anyone

Daryl Sabara is best known as the kid from the Spy Kids movies. But opposite a very strong performance by Robin Williams, Sabara creates the ultimate teen ass in the performance that people seem to remember first from this pitch black comedy.

Best Picture

There are plenty of great movies out there that will not be nominated for Best Picture this year even with a count of ten. But there are only a few pictures that I think really could make their way in the race that will probably be lost in the sauce.

The Hurt Locker looks like its safe… but I don’t know that it’s actually safe. If Academy members see it, there will be plenty of votes to nominate. But if the DVD, which still isn’t in Academy members’ hands, gets there and goes on the big pile… well, Summit could be playing with dynamite. Clearly one of the best films of the year, but they need voters to see it.

In The Loop is Armando Ianucci’s political comedy masterpiece went the VOD route, but wow, what a glorious, old-school, performance-heavy, chatty, funny, dead-ion smart film experience. If five movies of the eventual ten nominees are nearly as good, we will be lucky.

Where The Wild Things Are is a tough get, but I keep hearing from people who LOVE this movie. There are plenty who hated it too, but you can’t vote against a film. And the passion of the supporters is palpable. This is one of those films that will be watched for decade after decade, long after discussions of its costs or the time or production are forgotten. But with Invictus coming, will WB make a serious push for this one?

The Road is The Weinstein Company’s #3 film, after Nine and A Single Man. Why? Because it is a movie that demands the audience be awake, alert, and willing to go somewhere dark before they get close to the light. The film will get a real release, unlike the director’s first masterpiece, The Proposition. There is a reason why Hillcoat is not a commercial smash. He’s unwilling to compromise. As a result, he’s one of the world’s finest up-and-coming feature directors.

The Charts
Best Picture
Actor | Supporting Actor
Actress | Supporting Actress

- Email David Poland