..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

17 Weeks To Go:
Four Months Suddenly Seems Like A Short Race

And now… awards season begins in earnest.

Tick, tick, tick, tick… the last load of films will all be rolled out for media and awards voters within the next 4 weeks.  And really, we’re down to five films already. 

Four of the “Five To Watch” are Oscar Insider movies.  Two Kate Winslets (5 noms), one Leo DiCaprio (3 noms), a Daldry (2 noms), a Nicole (2 noms, 1 win), a Luhrmann (Moulin Rogue, 8 noms, but no Best Director for Baz), and an Eastwood (10 noms, 4 wins, 4 BPs. 1 honorary Oscar).

Ironically, the current conceptual frontrunner, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, is comparatively Oscar impoverished.  Up front you have David Fincher (no Oscar nothing) and Brad Pitt (1 Supporting Actor nod, for 12 Monkeys, 13 years ago).  Beyond that, you have big bait in Eric Roth (3 noms, 1 win), Cate Blanchett (5 noms, 1 win), and Tilda Swinton (1 nom, 1 win). 

Of course, Fincher is a f-ing genius.  Pitt was a great young actor who got caught up in being a movie star and tabloid celebrity.  And the material is an epic tale of time, so…

The question of the politics of movies already out are still unclear.  Milk may have gotten a bit lost in the wake of gay marriage being safe in California.  That’s not a problem today.  The embrace of the almost nostalgic Frost/Nixon is still a question, though the “ripping good yarn” element is in its favor.  In fact, both of these films are likely to make it in on merit, beyond politics.

And a film like Slumdog Millionaire – well, actually… a film exactly like Slumdog Millionaire – is likely to get a further boost from the Obama win.  Underdog.  Young.  Exotic.  Brave.  Winner.  If I had to pick a movie to win the Oscar today – and I don’t… and I’m not – it would be Slumdog. 

Of course, it is certainly possible that Forrest-Gump-without-the-slowness-and-with-backwards-aging, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, could have the feel great kick of Forrest Gump and win the day going away.  We’ll see. 

Australia is beginning to roll out the big ads and it looks… well… uneven… but of epic size.  We’ll see.

And Kate Winslet vs Kate Winslet is getting seriously interesting, as The Reader looks more like a classic Oscar-bait film than Revolutionary Road does.  But… we’ll see.

This season is actually looking quite a bit like last season, actually.  The top three films at this point last year had already been seen and/or released.  Personally, I was still resisting Juno and There Will Be Blood.  There were just a couple of unseen films at this point last year… none of which made it.  And most of the films that were competing for the last couple of slots all had problems that they might or might not overcome. 

I do think, this year, that the last couple of slots will be filled by two of the five films we haven’t seen yet. 

But still…how can we top Tuesday night?  How can we care quite the same way over these quibbles that are awards?

What if there are actually five films that we all can get excited about?  No gimmes for smaller constituencies that just luuuuuuv the particular narrow audience film?  I mean, not everyone will ever love everything, but we could well be just a few films away from a loaded deck of simply, truly terrific, solid films up for awards.

Yes we can.

 

This Week's Charts
Best Picture | Director
Best Actor/Supporting Actor | Best Actress/Supporting Actress
Best Original/Adapted Screenply

Past Columns
October 23, 2008
October 16, 2008
September 25, 2008
July 31, 2008

2008 Oscars | 2007 Oscars | 2006 Oscars | 2005 Oscars

- Email David Poland