..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Michael Wilmington

24 Days To Go

Somehow, this may be the first Oscar season in memory without The Great Settling. 

It’s not really clear whether it’s because of the films themselves or because of the WGA strike or the fact that the latest entry into the race – in Hollywood showings, not theatrical release date – was There Will Be Blood, first shown widely to critics the first week of November.

The field this year was narrower earlier.  Speculation after movies had been shown never really went deeper than 10 films at a time.  And by the time that the pre-Oscar nomination season ended on December 13, there were really seven or eight films in play.

The settling happened before Oscar ballots were sent out… and it wasn’t great and  Academy members weren’t really party to it. 

As it’s worked out, the constituencies have been served.

The Lady’s Choice is Atonement.

The Hip & Light Crowd luvs Juno.

Old School Hollywood is there for Michael Clayton.

Quality Lovers Who Like An Edge, But Not too Much Edge are there for No Country For Old Men.

The Manly Lovers Of Big Show Filmmaking adore There Will Be Blood. 

Interestingly, this list, in alphabetical order, gets more masculine in taste as it moves from A to T.  And is it a coincidence that the movie right in the middle is Michael Clayton, the one pure consensus film on the list?

The core principle of Academy voting is, “I don’t want to waste my vote.”  And this becomes even more significant in the final voting than in the nomination voting.

Also, the hard question of, “Do we want this film to represent the Academy forever and ever?” becomes more pronounced.

There is a reason why only five comedies have won Best Picture in the 79 years of Oscar.  And there are bigger reasons for each of those… Shakespeare In Love was about show biz and had a Brit acccent… Annie Hall was a Woody Allen career moment… Tom Jones was fronting the British Invasion… You Can’t Take It With You was Capra, Kaufman & Hart… It Happened One Night was Capra, Gable, Colbert and famously changed American industry by killing the undershirt for a while).

It’s also been 20 years since a film grossing less than $50 million domestic won the Oscar.  And that is before the win.  Going back 30 years, there is no film with a gross under $40 million at the winner’s gate.

Both of these stats scream No Country For Old Men will win. 

Michael Clayton added $2.2 million this last weekend, talking its total to almost $42 million, but $50 million is probably out of reach.

Of course, stats aren’t everything.  Every time someone reaches for a stat that proves a point, fate seems to shoot it down. 

On the other hand, there is that editing stat… which again points to No Country For Old Men.

But you know what the most powerful tool in getting No Country into the winner’s circle is?  Repeating over and over that it is going to win.

Academy voters, like all voters, in all elections from elementary school to President of the United States, want to vote for the winner.  So if the inevitability of No Country is said enough, it will become a self-fulfilling prophesy.

And that is why you see round-the-clock television ads for There Will Be Blood, demanding that we pay attention and take it seriously.  They think they have a chance to win, so they are going to keep telling you that they have a chance to win. 

The trouble is, if every Academy voter who really wants to vote for TWBB does so, it still will likely come up a bit short.  It is not, in the end, a consensus movie.  This does not make its place in history any more suspect.  It is the nature of the awards beast, not the love of movies.  (Though I must laugh at those who claimed that PTA didn’t care about awards and was not chasing them earlier in the season… hee hee.  Just like Clint doesn’t care.)

It's an odd line to walk, between letting them know you want it and not begging for it. As a result, year after year, the geniuses of Phase One seem to wilt in Phase Two, much more likely to allow the winds to carry them to their fates.

And maybe that is better for everyone...

The Charts

January 22, 2007
January 10, 2007
January 3, 2007
December 20, 2007
December 13, 2007
December 6, 2007
November 29, 2007
November 15, 2007
November 8, 2007
November 1, 2007
October 25, 2007
October 18, 2007
The Post-Toronto Chart - September 21, 2007
The Pre-Toronto Chart - September 6, 2007
The First Chart - June 21, 2007

- Email David Poland