..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Michael Wilmington

13 Weeks To Go
Love: A Four Letter Word

It's funny what turns your head.

The notion of prognosticating, which is often attacked by those who have no skill at doing it, is not a science.  It is an artistic endeavor.  And like all art, there is good and bad ... and taste involved. 

Oscar prognostication is particularly odd, since we are already well into the period of weaning out the likelies and unlikelies even though a significant percentage of the films that are "in play" have still not been seen by as much as 20% of the Academy membership.  Yet here we are, both reading and influencing the process ... all the while both blind to statistically significant input from voters and irrelevant to their decision-making in the long run.

There is a reason we, in this field, are all encouraged to attend premieres and events at the Academy and other situations that create a sense of enthusiasm.  Some of us can get a real read of the room just by sitting there ... others not so much.  Sometimes, the answer can be found at an afterparty ... sometimes not.  Some of us can separate our personal preferences from our objective ideas ... others just can't.

What never quite makes sense is that we - most of us - really do know what's going on out there, even though there should be no clear answers and even though we all come to it from different directions.

Certain trends seem to repeat reliably.  There has, in recent years, been a few nominations that The Media decides are fated sometime in September and just don't let go.  This year, it's Atonement with a side of Juno.  Amy Ryan became The Thing in October.  And lately, there has been a wave of American Gangster talk ... which seems to coincide with some heavy ad spending by Universal.  But as we get closer to some nominations from groups before the Academy, people are kicking their beloveds to the curb and looking for the "right" answers. 

It's also fascinating on the publicists side.  Many of the consultants, studio publicists, and personal publicists will be quite honest about where the feel they are.  And early in the season, they all think they have a chance ... because they have to ... so they can work.  The same is true on the media side.  We all need copy.  And the more machines that get started up to try to capitalize on award season advertising, the more copy we need ... inventory, in ad parlance.

Meanwhile, on the specific front of The Internet, things seem to be maturing ... or is that just slowing?  Traditional Media, after spending the last few years whining about the web, has been on a binge, trying to steal every idea, acquire the less expensive but ambitious talent, and find ways to become must-reads.  So far, the most effective move was bringing David Carr on the beat, who has become the Twain of Oscar blogging by force of his experience in real reporting and his natural personality.

Of course, with all the intensity of the LA Times and Variety especially, but also with so many outlets and so many individuals focusing so intensely on Oscar, it begins to feel like a shooting gallery with 100 people shooting at one target, all for some 50 cent piece of plush. 

Me, I like the people.  I like the films ... sometimes love.  I like the puzzle.  And I love the passion that swirls about.

Yet there is an odd disconnect between the passion and the effort to be objective.  And isn't enthusiasm the whole point?  Isn't the idea behind all of this the love of film?  And that is when it feels magical, if only for minutes or hours ... when it feels like we all have the same shared passions, as manifested in one particular piece of art or the overall idea of a months long celebration of the form. 

Objectivity, for most people, seems to be about agreement, rather than objectivity.  If you disagree, there must be some reason ... and it cannot be rational or then one must admit that another answer is possible.  Horrors ... especially when discussing art. 

Crunch time is here.  Over the next two weeks, pretty much every award that can be nominated for or given, aside from Oscar, will have been given announced.  Deep breaths will be taken.  New strategies for the next round will emerge.  And thousands of awards voters will settle down with a dozen of everyone else's favorite DVDs and start getting serious about where their passions will take them.   

And I ... I started writing this column with the thought in my mind that Sweeney Todd, which had yet another premiere here in L.A. last night, drawing talent, studio chiefs, and corporate bosses alike, is beginning to feel like it is a clear nominee.  I haven't surveyed 20% of the Academy.  In fact, there are still plenty of people who just can't see a nomination.  But the scope of the film ... the sheer size of it ... even greater in that Paramount Theater ... is something that has been dearly missing from The Season.  And Sweeney delivers that. 

But still, it's a feeling ... not a fact.  And if it turns out not to be the case, it will still be valid as a feeling, the facts not ever fully in evidence in this game, rendering 20/20 hindsight just another form of prognostication.

The Charts

November 15, 2007
November 8, 2007
November 1, 2007
October 25, 2007
October 18, 2007
The Post-Toronto Chart - September 21, 2007
The Pre-Toronto Chart - September 6, 2007
The First Chart - June 21, 2007

- Email David Poland