Gary Dretzka
Noah Forrest
Leonard Klady
David Poland
Douglas Pratt
Ray Pride

24 Weeks To Go
You Know You Don't Know

The Oscar season has started, not with a bang, but with a whimper.

It's not that there aren't a lot of terrific movies out there.  It's just that there is nothing either screening at festivals now or in the near future that suggests that any movie is a lock for a Best Picture nomination.

You can make arguments on either side of almost every contending movie.  New Line is going to fight to get Hairspray nominated.  Was it a big enough hit?  Will it fill the need for a light movie?

Elizabeth 2: The Golden Age has all the pedigree you could ask for, but it is a sequel and some doubt the director.

Voices inside of Universal are telling people that Charlie Wilson's War is a comedy and will have a hard time on that basis?  Or is that just spin?

Fox Searchlight and Paramount Vantage and Miramax have loads of movies of quality ... but will any one of them do the trick?

Are Academy members of an age to be nostalgic for Bob Dylan or aware enough of their parents' aging to go for The Savages?

These are just a few of the dozens and dozens of questions that are floating around this season.  Ask me for the five strongest candidates right now and I can't even begin to feel good about it.  And it has nothing to do with being cautious.  Anyone who tells you they know whether Atonement is going to play better, worse, or equally with No Country For Old Men is reaching ... and whether either film will get in is a question about which quality alone is not enough to establish a close-to-certain answer. 

I am doing this pre-Toronto look for the sake of creating a landmark.  Perhaps we will know more in a week.  But the truth is, we are more likely to knock some titles out than we are to be feeling 90% sure that some film is in.

And for all the Toronto Launching Pad chatter, there is a boatload of stuff that is scheduled for release before Thanksgiving, but isn't here, including The Darjeeling Limited, The Kite Runner, Lions For Lambs, American Gangster, There Will Be Blood, Things We Lost In The Fire, Grace Is Gone, We Own The Night, La Misma Luna, Love In the Time Of Cholera.  And yet, we have a few titles here that are December releases and still showing themselves here. 

I have broken the films in play into six categories in this week's chart ... but that's not much help either.  It is as easy to imagine three of the films from the "Serious Studio Muscle" category making it to nominations as it is for three to come from the "The Arty Battlers."  It's as easy to imagine "The Departed Slot Hopefuls"; being shut out as quickly as "The Political Dramas."

And what will Toronto sort out?  Not much.  Michael Clayton, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Rendition, Eastern Promises, and Reservation Road are probably in make-or-break play this week.   But even then, there are no guarantees.  It is convenient to forget how soft the support of Crash was when it was here ... so you probably shouldn't assume that In The Valley of Elah is in a life or death game here.  Cate Blanchett can leave here with two nominations, lead and supporting, seeming likely, but both movies (E2 and I'm Not There) still will have a long way to go before anything is for sure.  And could The Savages, which snuck up on Telluride as it did in Sundance, become a dominant title by the end of the fest?

We shall see.  There is just no way to know.  It's that kind of year.  Everyone is going to have to play to the end if they expect to play at all.

The Chart
The First Chart - June 21, 2007

- Email David Poland