..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

Week Eighteen - 17 Days to Go
Driving In Neutral

Oh, we're getting close.

Oh, nothing seems to be changing very much.

I am having this weird feeling that the movie no one is talking about is the movie that might shock them all. Explaining it logically, there is one comedy and four dramas. Of the four dramas, the one with the most muscle is Letters from Iwo Jima. Yes, some Academy voters do hate it. Yes, it doesn't play as well on DVD as it does on a big screen. Yes, it is in a foreign language.

But if you are going to pick one of the four dramas to vote for, which one has a strong universal theme, a major league pedigree, and undeniable serious intent? Iwo Jima.

Of course, that begs the musical question, doesn't Little Miss Sunshine have a big advantage in a tight race as the only comedy?

Answer: Maybe.

Doesn't The Departed have a huge advantage by being the film with the highest domestic gross by more than double?

Answer: Maybe.

Isn't The Queen in pretty great shape as the only movie of the five that really doesn't have any haters fighting against it?

Answer: Maybe.

Is Babel the BP nominee most like last year's upset winner, Crash, a series of stories on a theme of communication, featuring strong performances as characters overcome their seeming limitations?

Answer: Maybe.

What we do know is that it is very, very rare for a film to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination.

What we do know is that the last film that was more than about 10% foreign language to win Best Picture was… well… never.

What we do know is that no remake of another movie has ever won Best Picture.

What we do know is that no film has ever won Best Picture with its only acting nomination being for Best Actress.

So that eliminates all five nominees… so start again…

Or not.

There has been a lot of baby kissing and group hugs in the last week, but aside from a bunch of hype that Little Miss Sunshine had taken some dominant position - hype that might have killed its chances - and Eddie Murphy's big momma belly in Norbit, nothing much has happened. Everyone keeps talking to their circle of Academy friends and each person seems to get a different answer. A wave of positivity from one person is followed by a list of negatives from another.

And the answer is… we just don't know.

So why say more when there is so little to say?

(ADDED - The discussion actually does continue on the blog...)

Look for a wave of Oscar profiles on MCN over the weekend. And Lunch With David will feature another Oscar nominee this week and a chat with some very special Oscar envisioning guests.

The Charts
Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Screenplay
Best Director

Week Sixteen: And Now For Something You'll Really Like .. Again
Week Fifteen: Pow!!(er)
Week Fouteen: Everything Old Is Neew Again
Week Thirteen: Outside Looking In
Week Eleven The Great Settling
Week Ten: The Search For Meaning
Week Nine: Inside Out
Week Eight: The Season That Couldn't Shoot Straight
Week Six: Dreamgirls Wake
Week Five: Isn't It Romantic?
Week Four: The Rules - Episode One
Week Three: Channel #2
Week Two: Hope Floats
Week One: Ready, Steady ... Gold, Cat, Gold!
The August 11 Preview

- Email David Poland