BEST PICTURE
Picture - Studio	Comment
World Trade Center	Could still fall if the box office turns spotty.... FOUF is its real threat... how much America can people embrace at once?
Dreamgirls	I'm telling you... it's not goin'
Flags of Our Fathers	How good is the film...how much Eastwood/ Haggis fatigue is there?
The History Boys	The easy accent film
Little Children	Will fight it out with Babel for "Critic's Movie" status... only one likely to get a slot
Babel	Will fight it out with Little Children for "Critic's Movie" status... only one likely to get a slot
The Queen	The NY Film Fest has escaped its history of being an Oscar dead zone... but the two escapees had Clint Eastwood and George Clooney... could easily be too good for Oscar
The Good German	Will it be accessible Soderbergh or distant Soderbergh... not really worried about the B&W
Catch A Fire	An uphill fight for what is surely a quality film from a quality filmmaker... but a lot of serious stuff in play
The Pursuit of Happyness	Potential feel-good candidate
Goya's Ghosts	Can't be Top Ten until it has a distributor
The Good Shepherd	CIA fun directed by DeNiro... hoping for the best
Home of the Brave	Iraq war drama
All The King's Men	Are people in an old school political mood?
Little Miss Sunshine	Your likely Indie Spirit leader... unless Babel claims a low enough budget
A Good Year	Fox doesn't seem to want to worry about Oscar, but if Dreamgirls doesn't feel good enough...
Bobby	Emilio Estevez takes another shot at it
Stranger Than Fiction	If Adaptation couldn't make it, can this Pirandello homage
The Departed	Scorsese... maybe great Scorsese.. but probably too many guns for Oscar
Moving Out Of The Season
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford	It'll turn up sometime...
Dreamworks
Margaret	90% likely to move to 2007
MGM/UA
Paramount Classics
Red Sun, Black Sand	Look for a mid-January release in support of the Flags of Our Fathers Oscar push
Youth Without Youth	Coppola not ready
Zodiac	Fincher not ready... commercial priority
Other Possibles - By Studio
Columbia/Tri-Star
The Da Vinci Code	You saw those reviews...
The Holiday	Commerical... but sometimes Nancy Meyers gets those actors somethin' somethin'
Marie Antoinette	Lucky to get Oscar voters past the 20 minute mark
Running With Scissors	Maybe great... but probably young
Disney
Apocalypto	Oh, those Jews!
The Prestige	The great Chris Nolan... hopefully a great magic movie... but probably not for Oscar
Focus
Hollywoodland	It's a Turd... It's a Pain... It's...
Scoop	Woody goes back to his crypt
Fox
Borat	Sheer genius... but just too raw for Oscar mianstream
Fox Searchlight
Fast Food Nation	Fried by the French fest
The Last King of Scotland	Who's your Dada?
Notes On A Scandal	An actor's movie, apparently
Miramax
The Hoax	Word is not good.
Venus	Looks like a nice movie
New Line
The Nativity Story	Thank God
Picturehouse
Fur	Kidman as Arbus... arrrrrrrrrbus
Sony Pictures Classics
Volver	Si, es magnifico, pero es en Espanol
Universal
The Black Dahlia	Goodbye, Dahlia
The Children of Men	The Great Cuaron... but if it was for critics, wouldn't it be at Focus... and if it was commercial, wouldn't it have a better date?
United 93	Too early... too chilly... would need a lot of critics group support to revive
Warner Bros
The Fountain	Good, quality film... but not Oscar bait
Warner Indie
For Your Consideration	Funny... they don't reward funny.
The Painted Veil	Uh huh... we'll believe it when we see it
The Weinstein Company
Breaking & Entering	Distancing & Abandoning (I can only hope that "they" are wrong and it is uber-smart Minghella)
The Yari Film Group
The Illusionist	Poof.

 

August 11, 2006
- by David Poland