BEST PICTURE
	Picture -	Studio	Director	Award Poss Stars	Comment
1	Flags of Our Fathers / Red Sun, Black Sand	WB/DW	Eastwood	ensemble	The front runner... one reason is 2 films in 2 months... but that also creates problems too
2	Dreamgirls	DW/Par	Condon	Knowles Murphy	A period musical with well-liked actors and a quality director/writer... but it is a black lead film, which is a real issue.
3	The Good German	WB	Soderbergh	Clooney Blanchett Maguire	Stinks of Oscar, the next generation's muscle
4	The History Boys	FoxS	Hytner	Richard Griffiths	The feel good Brit film with depth
5	All The King's Men	Sony	Zaillian	Penn	Built for an awards race, though launching too early
6	Little Children	NL	Field	Winslet Connelly	Fighting a sophomore slump
7	Goya's Ghosts	none	Forman	Bardem	Which Milos? Mr Oscar or just a great artist at work?
8	Youth Without Youth	none	FF Coppola	Tim Roth	Hello, Francis! Well, hello, Francis! It's so nice to have you back where you belong
9	Breaking & Entering	TWC	Minghella	Binoche Winstone Penn, Law	Great cast, wonderful filmmaker
10	The Good Shepherd	U	DeNiro	Damon DeNiro Jolie Pesci	Lots of good puzzle pieces
11	A Good Year	Fox	R. Scott	Crowe	Could move up if it feels like the great foreign film in English
12	Babel	ParC	Inarritu	Pitt	Expect great reviews... and a real challenge for senior voters
13	Bobby	TWC	Estevez	ensemble	Will it be good enough?
14	Notes On A Scandal	FoxS	Eyre	Blanchett Dench	Probably too small for Best Pic, but good for other nods
15	Hotstuff/Untitled Noyce	Focus	Noyce	Robbins	Powerful idea, terrific team, but maybe a little too challenging
16	Stranger Than Fiction	Sony	Forster	Ferrell	Is this the Woody Allen/ Charlie Kaufman film that makes it this year?
17	Margaret	FoxS	Lonergan	Paqiun Ruffalo	More likely a performance, screenplay film, but ya never know...
18	Volver	SPC	Almodovar	Cruz	He's a great, but it's still in Spanish
19	The Departed	WB	Scorsese	DiCaprio Nicholson	More commercial than awards oriented? Might be the best Scorsese since GoodFellas
20	Apocalypto	Dis	Gibson	No Speakie Englishx	He knows how to make people feel... can't write him off
	Zodiac	Par	Fincher	Gyllenhaal Downey	Too blackhearted?
x	The Painted Veil	WIP	Curran	Norton	Is it muscular enough?
x	The Last King of Scotland	FoxS	MacDonald	Whitaker	A performance film?
x	The Pursuit of Happyness	Sony	Muccino	Will Smith	Intriguing
x	The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford	WB	Dominick	Pitt	Seems like a possible cult classic, but the lovers of Chopper are not Oscar voters
x	The Da Vinci Code	Sony	Howard	Hanks	A loooong run
x	Running With Scissors	Sony	Murphy	Bening Clayburgh	Arch... could win an actress award though
x	The Holiday	Sony	Meyers	Diaz Winslet	Meyers does great things for her actors
x	Marie Antoinette	Sony	S Coppola		We'll know soon, via Cannes
x	The Black Dahlia	U	DePalma	Eckhart Swank	If it works, seems commercial and very dark... unless it's Silence of The Lambs
x	Fur	PictH	Shainberg	Kidman	Maybe an acting nod
x	Rescue Dawn	none	Herzog	Bale	x
x	The Proposition	FLook	Hillcoat	Winstone Huston	x
x	The Illusionist	Yari	Burger	Norton Giamatti	x
x	Factory Girl	TWC	Hickenlooper	Sienna Miller	x
x	Fast Food Nation	FoxS	Linklater	ensemble	x
x	For Your Consideration	WB	Guest	ensemble	x
x	Southland Tales	U	Kelly	ensemble	x

May 15 , 2006
- by David Poland

(Edited on 5/16 to add Margaret, which was mistakenly left off.)