..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Michael Wilmington

WEEK FOURTEEN
It Takes Two, Baby

"Go 'way from my window,
Leave at your own chosen speed."

What will the summer of 2006 be best remembered for?

Well, some will remember the record breaking numbers for the launch of Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest. Others will remember the run of big, financially disappointing movies (Mission: Impossible 3, Poseidon, Superman Returns) and the rest that just weren't very good.

Some people will remember all the movies that didn't screen, but still opened big… but then, they wouldn't be remembering the Summer of 2006 because the only movie that didn't screen this summer was Just My Luck and the film didn't get nearly as lucky as any of Ms. Lohan's dates.

But what I will remember about Summer of 2006 is the emergence of the 3-week marketing window, heading fast towards the 2-week marketing window.

The basic principles haven't changed. You can't start chasing awareness two or three weeks out. If you have a product than develops interest from a distance, it's all the better. And a trailer that gets love every time it is seen for months is still money in the bank.

But…

The Omen… ran a relatively cheap outdoor campaign for months and didn't kick in with TV carpet bombing until Memorial Day weekend.

X-Men: The Last Stand… had a six month long outdoor campaign… and a very brief TV push, on top of the 2-week post-M:I3 campaign for The Da Vinci Code.

The Devil Wears Prada… turned its ad campaign upside down when after a Meryl Streep loaded trailer reached fashionistas, but not young girls. About 3 weeks out, the campaign turned dramatically to an Anne Hathaway-heavy theme, the princess overcoming the evil witch. Money.

Superman Returns… tried to turn the corner on the bad buzz coming out of the media long before seeing the movie. But there was not a sharp enough contrast to be found. If there was a third act twist to give away, it wasn't approved by Bryan Singer, who had approval on all marketing.

My Super Ex-Girlfriend… we're in the middle of it now. Fox launched its trailer on The Break-Up on June 2. More than half the trailer passed before Uma went super. There were a couple of effects shots, but mostly, they used camera stunts of simple things like laser eyes. It was a month before the first "Look Up In The Sky" spots launched, over July 4 weekend, less than three weeks before release, where potential audiences got the first real look at the "super" in Super Ex. If the movie takes off (hardy har har), it will be from a hard sell of under three weeks.

Lady In The Water - Warner Bros, clearly anxious, broke out of the "it's a fairy tale" sell and started selling the mysterious wolf-like creature in the film over the weekend, aka 2 weeks out from release.

Miami Vice - Have you seen a TV spot for Miami Vice yet? They are rare. Between not wanting to fight with the Pirates and not wanting to spend more than necessary for an R-rated movie that is not 4-quadrant, the engines are revving, but not much more. I expect that CSI and Grey's Anatomy will get an eyeful of the boats and guns and, on Grey's, more than a little multi-cultural romance tonight.

And by the way, the motivation for ABC to move Grey's Anatomy to Thursday has a LOT to do with the movie business. Thursday night is the most competitive night for movie ad buys and the networks take full advantage of that. Grey's is a huge hit on Sunday, but it plays better to men than Desperate Housewives, so it is happy to get out of Sunday Night Football's way on NBC. But more so, it can pump up its ad prices by more than 10% over Sunday rates by delivering similar ratings on Thursday.

This month will be the great determiner of whether what range of films can be launched or jump started in a hurry.

Little Man has actually been running spots in earnest for a while, but Monster House just seems to be ramping up, aside from many promotional screenings, great outdoor, a trailer, and some TV.

You, Me & Dupree just switched over to TV spots that verbally feature Owen Wilson's Wedding Crashers credentials.

In longer term planning, a World Trade Center spot turned up over July 4 weekend, but seems to have subsided. New Line has been grabbing kitsch moments to sell Snakes on a Plane, playing off of Pirates and Superman with wit, knowing that they will have to go to a straight campaign in another couple of weeks. And Talladega Nights has been making some sports buys. But aside from these sidelights, August isn't on the ad buy table yet… all of 18 days away.

The landmarks leading to all of this were the first Pirates of the Caribbean, years ago, which turned around its entire profile in about six weeks with a then-late trailer that built a lot of interest. More recently, Paramount was able to turn the corner on Failure To Launch in just two or three weeks, converting their campaign to appeal to adult women, focusing on Kathy Bates and Terry Bradshaw more than stars McConaughey and Parker. It worked and $89 million later…

Like the urge of the conglomerates to shorten the theatrical window more so they can get to the more highly profitable DVD segment, studios are realizing that they don't have to spend for 6 weeks to get the same results. It won't work for everyone. But it does put more weight on publicity, a form that has been under siege from dominating ad dollars for years now. And it raises the pressure level when a release is coming. Very few movies will come on to tracking 3 or 4 weeks out now with great numbers.

And in this era of dense, short-term events, how many things can really live in your brain pan for months on end anyway?

I suspect that there will be buyers for Super Bowl spots next January, but the simple habitual buy of them… that is over. The only big summer movie next year that really needs a Super Bowl spot is Transformers, which needs something to charge up the non-geek audience. If Spider-Man 3 or Pirates 3 or even Shrek 3 buys a spot, it will only be because of someone's ego.

So next time someone asks you what you are looking forward to at the movies, just tell them, "I'll let you know a week before it opens…"

This Week's Box Office Chart

THE COLUMN Week 14: Miami Vice Review Week 13 - 7/6 Week 12 - 6/29 Week 11 - 6/22 Week Ten - 6/15 Week Nine - 6/8 Week Eight - 6/1 Week Seven - 5/25 Week Six - 5/18 Week Five- 5/11 Week Four - 5/4 Week Three - 4/27 Week Two - 4/20 Week One - 4/13

THE BOX OFFICE CHARTS Week 13 - 7/6 Week 12 - 6/29 Week 11 - 6/22 Week Ten - 6/15 Week Nine - 6/8 Week Seven - 5/25 Week Six- 5/18 Week Five - 5/11 Week Four - 5/4 Week Two - 4/20 Week One - 4/13

- Email David Poland