..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Michael Wilmington

WEEK THIRTEEN
Genre Check

As we float, mid-dive into the second half of summer, let's take a look at the genre breakdown one more time.

ANIMATED
Cars
Monster House
Over The Hedge
The Ant Bully
The Barnyard
Garfield's A Tale Of 2 Kitties

Also For The Kids: Zoom, Hoot, How To Eat Fried Worms

Shrek 2's $441 million a couple of summer's ago was not only the second highest grossing domestic film ever but, aside from mid-August's release of Yu-Gi-Oh! The Movie, it was the only animated film all summer long. Cars, this summer's current leader, isn't so lucky. Still, with three (including Garfield 2) animated films, the category is already at $372 million. And we still have three more animated kids' films to come.

This group of films also represents a change in the overall industry with each of the six coming from another studio (DiXar, Sony, DreamWorks Animation, WB, Paramount, and Fox).

The category is so strong that the perception of each of the three entries so far has been that they are weak sisters, but we are still looking at a record breaker. This year is looking pretty sure to beat 2004's record-setting animated haul, which combined Shrek 2, The Incredibles, and The Polar Express to gross $877 million overall. Beyond the three films to come this summer, add in spring's Ice Age: The Meltdown ($194 million) and then we have Fox's Everyone's Hero, WB's Happy Feet, DWA's Flushed Away and Sony's Open Season due in the fall. The 2004 record, facing 11 films to its 3, is pretty sure to fall. But it will be fascinating to see whether - or really by how much - animated titles can generate $1 billion domestic all on their own. If I were forced to bet it, I would take the over on a breathtaking estimate of $1.4 billion.

BLOCKBUSTERS
Mission: Impossible IIII
Poseidon
Superman Returns
X-Men: The Last Stand
Lady in the Water
Pirates of the Caribbean II

The four traditional blockbusters (DVC is in another group) that have opened so far have managed $540 million domestic, but the news is not all good. They cost about $900 million to produce and around $500 million to market worldwide. All of these films were counting on big international support and huge DVD sales when they were greenlit.

But the Summer of 2006 should remind every studio that it just isn't worth the risk. Amazingly, with all that money on the table, the only movie stars getting paid are Tom Cruise and Johnny Depp. And still, it's insanely expensive.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest seems likely to change the blockbuster economics of the summer, and the industry would love Lady In the Water to be a surprise smash. But still, right now, the only blockbuster in this group that still has a real chance to generate more than $100 million in profit is Pirates. And that's bad news.

COMEDIES
The Break Up
Click
The Devil Wears Prada
Just My Luck
Nacho Libre
Accepted
Beerfest
Clerks II: The Passion Of The Clerks
John Tucker Must Die
Little Man
Little Miss Sunshine
My Super Ex-Girlfriend
Talladega Nights
You, Me & Dupree

Five summer comedies have opened so far… one was a flop… one is doing as expected… and three have exceeded reasonable expectations. That's a pretty good reason to be in the comedy business. Six more are due this month with three more cleaning up in August. A couple of flops, a couple of them doing as expected and five exceeding expectations would make a lot of people happy.

None of the comedies on this list cost as much as $100 million to produce, but they all have the same big picture concern… will they play overseas? Most of them know that they won't and have kept costs down with that in mind. The biggest of these films, Fox's Ivan Reitman comedy My Super Ex-Girlfriend, is likely hoping that they will find a place at the blockbuster table in the rest of the world, even if the numbers here are just solid.

ADULT FARE
The Da Vinci Code
An Inconvenient Truth
The Lake House
A Prairie Home Companion
The Proposition
Miami Vice
World Trade Center

For all the complaining about a lack of films for adults, this summer has the first adult blockbuster in a while and a pretty fair line-up aside from it. True, some of these titles are pretty small, but they are out there, and they all hoped to find a wave to surf.

Miami Vice is probably the least traditionally "adult" film, but it will be R-rated and it surely will look to attract adults much as Collateral did… only with hopes of doubling that gross. Closing out the season is World Trade Center, which hopes to cross over to a broad audience. But it's a pretty serious subject matter.

The success of Da Vinci aside, the three other films that got reasonably wide releases all surprised in a positive way… and continue to. The only question mark is The Lake House, as we wonder how much it actually cost. But on its way to about $50 million, it has done better than most expected it to and seems to have hit what has become a consistent spot for WB in the summer chasing women only.

BALLBUSTERS
An American Haunting
The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift
The Omen
Waist Deep
DOA: Dead or Alive
Fearless
Pulse
A Scanner Darkly
Snakes On A Plane

That's my smart aleck name for action movies hoping to break out, but that are made with much lower expectations. So far, so mediocre.

The third Fast & Furious sequel had the highest budget in this group, at $75 million. But in spite of domestic numbers about half of previous franchise entries, Universal will be waiting to see how it plays in Asia before giving up hope on some nice profits.

The most talked about title here is Snakes on a Plane, which is unlikely to fulfill the wet box office dreams of some who are obsessing on the internet fascination with the project. That is to say, the film grossing enough domestically alone to cover the cost of production, leaving a lot of opportunity for profit in foreign and DVD… not enough. (That number would be about $65 million.)

Thanks to a very focused opening day strategy and minimal TV advertising, The Omen, which basically died by 6-16-06, will still be profitable for Fox.

None of these movies are likely to lose money. But there has been no great break-out here this summer. But who knows? Summer ain't over yet.

UNCLASSIFIABLE
Idlewild

The Outkast musical will either be a small write-off or a shocking surprise cash cow. Sing out, Louise.

This Week's Box Office Chart

THE COLUMN Week 12 - 6/29 Week 11 - 6/22 Week Ten - 6/15 Week Nine - 6/8 Week Eight - 6/1 Week Seven - 5/25 Week Six - 5/18 Week Five- 5/11 Week Four - 5/4 Week Three - 4/27 Week Two - 4/20 Week One - 4/13

THE BOX OFFICE CHARTS Week 12 - 6/29 Week 11 - 6/22 Week Ten - 6/15 Week Nine - 6/8 Week Seven - 5/25 Week Six- 5/18 Week Five - 5/11 Week Four - 5/4 Week Two - 4/20 Week One - 4/13

- Email David Poland