..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Michael Wilmington

WEEK TWELVE
B.O. Intermission

At about the half way mark in the season, I figured that since almost no one was writing a word about the box office, I should do something.

And here is the news… Mr. Anti-Slump 2006 is here to tell you that the first seven weeks of this summer is the worst of the last five years.

That may be deceiving. With the exception of the remarkably front-loaded 2003, this summer's first seven weeks are off no more than 4% any of the other three years (of the five in this survey).

In another quirky stat, 2006 is only the second summer in history to have five straight $200 million-plus box office weeks within these first seven weeks.

The seven $100 million-plus movies so far (projecting Click as one, though it's not there yet) ties the 2003 record for that stat but still is pretty much average for early summer, since we haven't seen the heights in the top titles.

While I expected to see an upswing in the worldwide numbers, as that market continues to grow, the reality is that at this point of this summer, overall business is off hundreds of millions among the top titles when compared to the last five years. (Yes, I am taking the fact that not all the domestic releases have rolled out in all markets yet.) Huzzah for The Da Vinci Code doing over $700 million worldwide, but that summer leading number is more than $100 million behind previous years' leaders, Star Wars III, Shrek 2, Finding Nemo and Spider-Man. And the #2, X-Men: The Last Stand, is between $100 million and $300 million off of the #2s of summers past.

But let's get down to the real nitty gritty. 2006 will be the first year since 1998 and Saving Private Ryan in which the top summer film didn't launch in May. Even in the first Pirates year (2003), Pirates came in second to Finding Nemo.

In fact, it seems likely that the #1 and the #2 picture of Summer 2006 will be launched this week and next. There really is no modern precedent for this. There were summer #2s like Spider-Man 2, Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl, and War of the Worlds.

In the last five years, the "worst" performance by a top summer film domestically was Finding Nemo's $340 million. Neither of our current leaders, X-Men: The Last Stand and The Da Vinci Code, appears ready to come within $100 million of that number.

So now, it's up to Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest and Superman Returns to lead the way. But don't get too dependent on those two titles alone. Films that open in the next two months, combined with holdover from the first two months, are still about $2 billion away from an average summer.

The two big movies alone could account for $650 million. (Remember, this is domestic.) But these 11 titles - The Devil Wears Prada, You, Me & Dupree, Little Man, Monster House, Lady In The Water, My Super Ex-Girlfriend, Miami Vice, The Ant Bully, Talladega Nights, Snakes on a Plane, World Trade Center - really need to kick in at least $900 million between them to make the summer stay strong.

Truth is, for all the bitching and moaning about the quality of the films this summer, the box office picture has been pretty boring. The Break-Up & The Da Vinci Code defied critics. It will take Cars and Over The Hedge to match Shrek 2 or Finding Nemo… but they will pass Nemo and come close to Shrek 2, so not worth screaming. X-Men: The Last Stand will not live up to its opening, but it will be the best performer of the three films in the franchise. Even Mission:Impossible III, while a disappointment, is not the disaster that reports here at home suggested at first. Really, only Poseidon stands out now as an unmitigated disaster.

Of course, there is also this to consider… this is the most expensive summer in the history of the movie business. If reports are accurate, Click and The Break-Up will be the two $100 million grosser of this summer to cost less than $100 million to produce. And I count at least three $150 million production budgets so far this summer with Superman: The MEFE and a $200 million-plus Pirates 2 about to launch. That will be a minimum of five $150 million-plus budgets entering the market in just nine weekends. Insane, really. (paragraph edited to included The Break-Up at 1:31p, 6/29)

Next summer, May starts with Spider-Man 3, Shrek 3 two weeks later, and Pirates 3 a week after that. Are you scared of monsters?

The parade of sequels to $100 million hits continue in June with Ocean's Thirteen (a fourth third), Fantastic Four Two, and Evan "Not Bruce" Almighty.

Transformers shoots for July 4 while Harry Potter V returns to summer for the second time and The Simpsons hit the big screen.

But August makes July look a little slow with Bourne 3, AVP2 and Rush Hour 3 all arriving, along with Oscar nominee Amy Adams playing purebred to the Underdog.

Holy Moley!

That's eight sequels to films that opened to more than $50 million. The record for $50 million summer openings is also eight (2003). And there are still Oceans (the past two opened in the high 30s), Simpsons, and Transformers chasing the big opening, plus animated contenders Surf's Up and Ratatouille.

The most muscular set of three or more May openings was 2003's X2: X-Men United, The Matrix Reloaded, Finding Nemo, and Bruce Almighty. 92, 86, 70, 68. Expect next year's May trio to be chasing that $315 million in openings from those four films.

But the good news is that next summer, albeit the most crowded ever, will also be a lot cheaper than this year.

And the answer to this summer… it's all ahead of us.

This Week's Box Office Chart

THE BOX OFFICE CHARTS
Week 11 - 6/22
Week Ten - 6/15
Week Nine - 6/8
Week Seven - 5/25
Week Six- 5/18
Week Five - 5/11
Week Four - 5/4
Week Two - 4/20
Week One - 4/13

THE COLUMN
Week 11 - 6/22
Week Ten - 6/15
Week Nine - 6/8
Week Eight - 6/1
Week Seven - 5/25
Week Six - 5/18
Week Five- 5/11
Week Four - 5/4
Week Three - 4/27
Week Two - 4/20
Week One - 4/13

- Email David Poland