..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Michael Wilmington

WEEK ELEVEN
N.K.A.

If there is one primer for a life in Hollywood, it is not Syd Field and it is certainly not Hackster McKee. The first read for anyone who wants to get it has to be William Goldman's Adventures In The Screen Trade. And that is where the most used and probably most overused phrase in Hollywood comes from… "Nobody Knows Anything."

This summer, there has been a lot of discussion about film critics not knowing anything in the form of being out of touch with the public. But for one thing, critics are not supposed to be trying to figure out how the public will react. They are supposed to be using their experience and interest and opinion to offer their perspective on a given film. Civilians can choose critics to connect with or not, but chasing your audience's whims is as insane for a critic as it is for a studio exec.

Critics are not alone in being unable to predict the whims of the ticket buyers. Every time a film does not meet the studio's internal expectations, a bunch of someones didn't know anything. Every time a major news outlet goes on the early attack on a film because they foresee a certain kind of trouble and it turns out to be a non-event, someone didn't know anything.

Right now, we are chasing a wave of "journalists" who are fixating on tracking. (This has turned into my top pet peeve of 2006.) They are proving that a small amount of information is truly a dangerous thing. It's real simple. If someone tells you that tracking shows a movie will have the biggest opening ever, they are proving, factually, that they don't know anything about tracking.

And further complicating the analysis of tracking (which none of these "journalists" is doing… they are just repeating what has been told to them, which last I recall was called "gossip," not journalism) on the studio side is the new trend of shorter marketing windows. I can't speak for everyone, but it seems that the failure of Warner Bros' experiment with Dukes of Hazzard last summer, which started ads and cross-promotion in May and kept a steady stream up all through the summer until the August release date, has had a strong effect on the studios. In addition, with summers more loaded with new and expensive product than ever, the urge to fight through massive marketing for six weeks seems a futile one. That's why you are just getting the first real hint of Little Man and You, Me & Dupree right now.

These days, when a movie comes on tracking three weeks out, there is a real chance - a likelihood on smaller films - that the ad campaign really hasn't gone into full force. That's a part of what happened on The Break-Up. Tracking showed trouble, but picked up significantly as they went along. And while critics were right about the film being a dud, what was missed was that it was the only film anywhere near the romantic comedy (read: women) category until this weekend.

Critics were too late to have any effect, other than to inspire more buzz, on The Da Vinci Code. Three days before a movie with a lot of audience interest opens, someone knows something… the audience knows whether it is going to the theater that weekend.

The flip side of that is DiXar's Cars which, you may remember, was moved out of last November after The Incredibles made a terrific, but not quite terrific enough, $261 million domestic, about $80 million less than Finding Nemo. Monsters, Inc. seemed to be under the same green glass ceiling in its November $226 million release. Summer offered longer legs. But lo and behold, Cars - inferior or not - came into a marketplace that had already been hit by DWA's Over The Hedge (not to mention Fox's Ice Age 2), and the result was their weakest wide opening 3-day since the first Toy Story in 1995.

Suddenly, second slot in an overloaded animation summer doesn't look like the best way to top a November release date. (There is a major animated film in November, but what would WB have done if DiXar put Cars in early November or even right on top of their animated Happy Feet's November 17 date? Probably blink.) Nobody knows anything.

There are other things people don't know during a summer season. Neither WB nor Fox knew that their superhero movies would go tens of millions over budget. But they did.

Who knew that Tom Cruise Gone Wild would be so badly received while Jen & Vince's oversold affair would find box office success just about the same time the love child of Mr & Mrs Smith was arriving in a foreign land? No one.

Sky High grossed about the same as Herbie: Fully Lindsay. Lords of Dogtown, Dark Water, House of Wax, and Stealth combined grossed less here than The 40 Year Old Virgin.

Of course, some things that seem like they aren't known are known. For instance, no one knew that Fahrenheit 9/11 would gross $119 million domestic. But even though most imagined that it would be a very profitable film to own or distribute, no one wanted to do it. And, give the chance again… no one would want to do it. They want money. They don't want trouble.

Who knows something? Well, we all know what we like. We know when a movie feels wrong. We know when a movie feels right. We know what kind of soda and candy we like. We know that having the back of your seat kicked sucks. We know what makes us laugh and what makes us cry.

Ya know?

This Week's Box Office Chart

THE BOX OFFICE CHARTS
Week Ten - 6/15
Week Nine - 6/8
Week Seven - 5/25
Week Six- 5/18
Week Five - 5/11
Week Four - 5/4
Week Two - 4/20
Week One - 4/13

THE COLUMN
Week Ten - 6/15
Week Nine - 6/8
Week Eight - 6/1
Week Seven - 5/25
Week Six - 5/18
Week Five- 5/11
Week Four - 5/4
Week Three - 4/27
Week Two - 4/20
Week One - 4/13

- Email David Poland