..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Michael Wilmington

WEEK SEVEN
Seasons Change

Every time you think there is a rule about summer, it gets broken.

The May Kickoff seemed to be the magic spot for a few years there, with The Mummy Returns, Spider-Man, and X2: X-Men United all doing more than $200 million from that slot, building consistently from 1998's Deep Impact, which was the movie that started the trend. And then last year, we had Kingdom of Heaven open to $19.6 million and gross $47.4 million domestic. This year, Mission: Impossible II more than doubled that opening and still was seen as a flop, its numbers almost right in line with the first Mummy, circa 1999.

Memorial Day Weekend used to be The Spot, until Fox decided to take Star Wars: Episode One to the box office the weekend before Memorial Day 1999, to get some free space and then also get the box office benefit of the long holiday weekend. The result was a summer win. In those seven years until this summer, three Star Wars were slotted there and two won the summer (the third came in number two to Spider-Man), and both Shrek and Shrek II took the top summer slot from there. Bruce Almighty came in fourth from that slot and Dinosaur scared Mission Impossible II into a pre-memorial Day Wednesday opening… M:I2 won the summer and Dinosaur ended up in the seventh spot. Neither The Da Vinci Code nor X-Men: The Last Stand is likely to win the summer this year, though both or either could make the top five.

In spite of all the slump talk, last summer was the first in history to have seven $185 million-plus movies, the previous record being five. A big part of that was the pleasant surprise of Batman Begins and Mr & Mrs Smith joining July 4 targeted War of the Worlds as three films over that figure in June. Until Spider-Man 2 and Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban both did it in 2004, Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me was the only June release in history to crack that mark. (EDIT, 1:06p, 5/25/06 - I stand corrected... the first Batman did it in 1989.)

This summer, Cars, Superman Returns and Click all have a shot at the target. Some tough talk about the first two have some people questioning them and Adam Sandler seems to have a glass ceiling at $180 million, so all three could come up short just as easily - though all three are pretty sure bets to come close in even the worst case scenario.

July 4 is another one that is hard to make assumptions about. There was a strong run of Independence Day, Men In Black and Armageddon, Then in 1999, the same year Star Wars started a week before Memorial Day, Wild Wild West took the new tack of breaking out the week before July 4 weekend. The film broke alright, but since then, the only $100 million grosser to open on July 4 weekend was Terminator 3, which disappointed with a $150 million domestic total. This summer, that pre-slot - now the standard - is held by Superman Returns. But that is no guarantee either. Spider-Man 2 and War of the Worlds are the only two films to have cracked $200 million from that slot.

Well, what about the rest of July? Only four films this decade have grossed more than $200 million domestic after opening in July after the July 4 weekend. But all four were in the last 3 years. So suddenly, post-July 4 July is as strong a place to open a movie as any time except for that Memorial Day period.

Also, the theory that you need open space if you don't have a holiday weekend to play off of was also challenged last year, as Charlie & The Chocolate Factory and Wedding Crashers opened on the same day and both went on to gross more than $200 million.

There is still a glass box office ceiling in August, though it's hard to say that there is a ceiling when there have been three $200 million domestic grossers in the last six Augusts. The Sixth Sense almost cracked $300 million. Still, there have been sixteen $100 million-plus grossers that launched in August, compared to fifty in July… and sixteen of those were $200 million-plus grossers. A glass ceiling.

The lesson of August is that you can have a mega-hit there, but if you are looking to gross more than $150 million, the odds are against you and if you open past the first weekend of the month, history has no examples of it happening. But just when you think that makes August look bad, you see that Freaky Friday and SWAT both opened in the second August weekend of 2003 and both grossed more than $100 million, as did American Wedding, which opened on the first weekend of the month that year.

So what does this summer's trajectory look like?

Well, as we now know, the start was decent, but not sensational.

As the month goes, the boost of X-Men: The Last Stand and a good hold for Over The Hedge should help M:I3 and The Da Vinci Code match or surpass last year's Star Wars: Episode 3, Madagascar, and The Longest Yard May combo.

Superman Returns, Cars, Click, and perhaps Nacho Libre could help June match up to last summer's scorcher.

July's Pirates of the Caribbean 2 should be the one 4-quadrant smash of the summer, as I have been writing for months now. But there is potential muscle in Monster House, Miami Vice, You, Me & Dupree and even Lady In The Water and Little Man.

August could be the weak sister this year with only The Any Bully, World Trade Center, Talladega Nights, and Snakes On A Plane as contenders and none of them a sure $100 million domestic bet.

But for the next seven weekends, it should feel like a hot summer. There will be some disappointments along the way. If The Break-Up was really the movie they are selling, it would be huge… but it's not. It's hard to see 3 Fast 3 Furious: Next Ethnicity Drift doing a huge number. But who knows… might be more fun than other summer choices. And Lady In the Water will or will not be as self-indulgent as it appears to be.

But there should be enough to put a smile on the face of most curmudgeons, with Pirates as the cherry on top. And if Miami Vice or World Trade Center is great, perhaps we will even be in a good enough mood to focus on the movies, not just the money.

Things are looking up… or at least a 3-day weekend makes it look better…

This Week's Box Office Chart

THE BOX OFFICE CHARTS
Week Six- 5/18
Week Five - 5/11
Week Four - 5/4
Week Two - 4/20
Week One - 4/13

THE COLUMN
Week Six - 5/18
Week Five- 5/11
Week Four - 5/4
Week Three - 4/27
Week Two - 4/20
Week One - 4/13

- Email David Poland