..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Michael Wilmington

WEEK FOUR
Do E-Journalists Dream
Of Text Messaging Sheep?

Every year, the media seems to become more predictable in its coverage of the movie business. Last year was "The Year Of The Slump." This year, there are already fools spinning the upswing in box office as reflective of better films or films that somehow are not trouble for word of mouth or some other such bullshit. Apparently, they haven't looked at the films that are leading the box office. The Top Ten Of 2006 To Date?

10. Underworld: Evolution
9. Madea's Family Reunion
8. V For Vendetta
7. Big Momma's House 2
6. Scary Movie 4
5. Eight Below
4. The Pink Panther
3. Inside Man
2. Failure To Launch
1. Ice Age: The Meltdown

What is the only quality these 10 films have in common? Quality marketing.

Here is the hard reality... five of ten are sequels... one is a franchise relaunch... one is a pure action films... one is a kid's film with animals. The two films that are not pure genre plays aimed at the under-20 set are the uniques. Inside Man is a sophisticated thriller for adults with two major stars and one growing star that opened big and did 3 times opening. Failure To Launch is a romantic comedy that ended up shifting its advertising away from its younger appeal stars (though younger women still turned up for Sarah Jessica Parker) and towards adults who wanted to laugh at the silly behavior of "the kids today." Of course, only Ice Age 2 has cracked $100 million.

In any case, there hasn't been that much coverage of the upswing in box office this year because writing the story almost forces the writer - 90% of them who hysterically went chicken little for months last year - to acknowledge that nothing has really changed... they were just wrong last year. "Wrong," in degree, of course. Yes, the audience going to the movies is getting smaller every year, by a small percentage, because of other entertainment options. But if you include DVD purchases in the last few years, the audience for movies is significantly bigger than at any time since the pre-television era.

Was 2006 a down year? Well, you can't argue numbers... except to say that The Passion of The Christ and Fahrenheit 9/11 were extraordinary anomalies that put hundreds of millions more box office dollars into the independent sector than have even been there before and will likely ever be there again. Last year was, in fact, a perfect storm of negative energy in the indie and the Dependent sectors, with Miramax shuttering and dumping and Searchlight in near hibernation. Even the penquins and the saw could not make it alright. The studio side was a mixed bag, with massive surprise successes like Hitch, Wedding Crashers, Mr & Mrs Smith and Fantastic Four, but a few key flops in Kingdom of Heaven, Stealth, and The Island. The media forgot the former and keyed in on the latter.

In any case... it is now time to preview what you might expect from the media this summer.

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE 3
What Opening Will Be Called A Flop?: Anything under $80 million
The Headline: Money: Impossible
The Story: "Tom Cruise's new movie dominated the world box office last weekend, but the combination of Cruise's controversies in the last year and teen aged boys playing video games kept the Daddy Tom from breaking through as big as expected."
What They'll Leave Out: Mission: Impossible II opened to just $58 million and War of the Worlds, Cruise's biggest opening ever, opened to "just" $65 million.

What Opening Will Be Called A Surprise Success?: Anything over $100 million
The Headline: Nothing Impossible For Cruise
The Story: "Tom Cruise scored the biggest opening of his career and the biggest opening ever for Paramount. Cruise couldn't capture the all-time crown from Spider-Man. But some industry watchers are already talking about the film out-grossing Titanic."
What They'll Leave Out: Harry Potter & The Goblet of Fire opened to more than $100 million and still didn't gross $300 million domestic.

THE DA VINCI CODE
What Opening Will Be Called A Flop?: Anything under $60 million
The Headline: Code Dead
The Story: "The Da Vinci Code was as popular as meat on opening Friday, as Christians stayed away from the theaters in droves (and fishes). The opening of the film of the massive best-seller is now being compared to The Name Of The Rose."
What They'll Leave Out: Ron Howard's biggest opening ever was $55 million for The Grinch over Thanksgiving Weekend 2000. Tom Hanks biggest opening was $31 million for Saving Private Ryan.

What Opening Will Be Called A Surprise Success?: Anything over $70 million
The Headline: Christ, That's A Lot Of Money!
The Story: "Sony's seduction of the Christian right has finally paid off after years of futility. Christians everywhere showed up with pitchforks and torches, threatening to burn multiplexes down if they couldn't get opening day seats."
What They'll Leave Out: Sony's biggest non-Spider-Man opening was Men In Black II's $52 million start in 2002.

SUPERMAN
What Opening Will Be Called A Flop?: Anything under $85 million
The Headline: You Will Believe A Film Can Bomb
The Story: "Bryan Singer & The Man With The Super Bulge were unable to attract teen aged boys, who were busy playing video games and text messaging one another, and failed to break through as big as expected."
What EW'll Leave Out: Superman: The MEFE. (Most Expensive Film Ever)

What Opening Will Be Called A Surprise Success?: Anything Over $125 million
The Headline: I'm Super, Thanks For Asking
The Story: "Bryan Singer sucked more out of teen boys this weekend than industry experts previously thought possible. While they showed up this weekend, they are expected to go back to their video games and text messaging very soon. Experts expect the second weekend gross to drop more than 50%."
What They'll Leave Out: The highest gross for any previous Superman film was $134 million for the first of the series.

MIAMI VICE
What Opening Will Be Called A Flop?: Anything under $25 million
The Headline: My Hammy Mess
The Story: "'This is why new Paramount President Stacey Snider left Universal,' said someone at Universal looking for a way to get someone else to hold the bag for the film. Michael Mann may never work in this town again."
What They'll Leave Out: Many quality films in recent years have gone on to gross more than $100 million despite opening to less than $25 million.

What Opening Will Be Called A Surprise Success? Anything over $40 million
The Headline: Miami Nice
The Story: "Real life battles with sex, drugs, and rock-n-roll did nothing to slow down Jamie Foxx and Colin Farrell's fans from coming out to see them work their sexy magic."
What They'll Leave Out: Michael Mann is a genius.

NACHO LIBRE
What Opening Will Be Called A Flop?: Anything under $15 million
The Headline: Belly Flop
The Story: "Jack Black's hold on teenaged boys has been overwhelmed by video games and text messaging. Between this and King Kong's tragic failure, Black has proven to be the star least likely. And if you haven't noticed, he needs to go on a diet!"
What They'll Leave Out: King Kong grossed $550 million worldwide, one of only 42 films ever to pass $500 million worldwide.

What Opening Will Be Called A Surprise Success? Anything over $15 million
The Headline: Black In The Green
The Story: "Jack Black got teen boys way from their X-Boxes with an assist from Paris Hilton, who was caught performing a live sex act with Brett Ratner on the Dodger Stadium Jumbo-Tron while wearing a Mexican wrestler's mask, starting a trend. In other news, X:Men 4 has started preproduction and will feature Hilton as a new mutant character named Vacuum."
What They'll Leave Out: The pictures.

SNAKES ON A PLANE
What Opening Will Be Called A Flop?: $20 million
The Headline: New Line Fails To Capitalize On Internet Buzz
The Story: "The teen boys who spent months talking about Snakes On A Plane online apparently decided to stay home and download the movie off the internet while text messaging one another and watching episodes of Desperate Housewives on their iPods."
What They'll Leave Out: Only two films in movie history have opened to more than $18.1 million after August 15.

What Opening Will Be Called A Surprise Success? $20 million
The Headline: Snakes Gross Anything But Plain
The Story: "The teen boys who spent months talking about Snakes On A Plane online apparently decided to go to the theater before downloading the movie off the internet while text messaging one another and watching episodes of Desperate Housewives on their iPods."
What They'll Leave Out: This will be one of the cheapest studio releases of the summer.

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 2
What Opening Will Be Called A Flop?: Anything under $100 million
The Headline: Pirates Fall To Unexpected Depps
The Story: "It may seem like a lot to you, but Hollywood is depressed as Pirates 2 failed to become the fifth film in all time to open to more than $100 million. Expectations were high after Superman set the high bar for this summer with an $82.6 million opening."
What They'll Leave Out: No summer movie after June has ever opened to more than $73 million.

What Opening Will Be Called A Surprise Success?: Anything over $115 million
The Headline: Pirates Chart New Box Office Territory
The Story: "POTC:DMC beat the opening weekend record set by Spider-Man in 2002. Still, there are questions about whether teen boys showed up to see the movie. Girls were seen text messaging one another through the film, establishing the kind of word of mouth that traditional occurrences, like more than 16 million people seeing and loving a movie in one weekend, no longer can.
What They'll Leave Out: Any positive comments on the success of exhibition this year.

This Week's Box Office Chart

THE BOX OFFICE CHART
Week Two - 4/20
Week One - 4/13

THE COLUMN
Week Three - 4/27
Week Two - 4/20
Week One - 4/13

- Email David Poland