..Gary Dretzka
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..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
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8 WEEKS TO GO
"My Sister... My Daughter... My Sister... My Daughter... She's My Sister AND My Daughter!!!!"

You know the teacups at Disneyland? They look tame, but there isn't a ride in the park more likely to make you (or your mom) throw up?

Welcome (yet again) to Oscar season 2005/6.

With Brokeback as pretty much the only lock for a Best Picture nomination right now, the mountain that I'm thinking most about is Cold Mountain. As in, will Munich be this year's Cold Mountain?

I still believe in my gut that if Munich gets nominated, the month following nominations will see enough people lining up behind the film in this good-not-Oscar-great season for it to win the Oscar. However, I am now appropriately unsure about whether the film will have the opportunity to fight that fight.

What happened? Well, the film was shown to critics for the first time on Dec 5… two weeks later in the season than the first screenings of Million Dollar Baby. When the negativity started, the studio and Spielberg didn't have enough time to react… and they were already positioned to not react, which slowed things even more. I still feel it is fair to say that the movie has been "Swift Boated," though if that makes you bristle, consider this: I also believe that the only reason the Swift Boat attack was effective was that people believed John Kerry capable of that behavior, true or not. Likewise, people are not shocked by the notion of Spielberg missing the mark, Tony Kushner (who I think did some brilliant work) makes for a nearly indefensible target (though no artist should be a target based on their personal politics), and the movie does not milk the audience emotionally and state its position unequivocally, which usually gets foreign films praised and American-made films shredded.

But if I had to pick one word to describe the backlash, it's "arrogance." Even though media types got themselves in a tizzy about Spielberg's interview schedule, we are not the defining emotion on a movie. But the "let the movie speak for itself" approach came off as arrogant… especially on a movie that requires conversation before it starts to find its balance. And the two prominent places where Spielberg did speak did not deliver pieces that were emotionally or intellectually compelling. There is very little memorable about the Time or the LA Times pieces.

And the DVD thing is real. The Academy members should be okay, but not getting them the DVD before Christmas was a disaster. It's not that they won't watch the movie, but the experience is already tainted in this way, that way, and the other. It's a terrific movie in many ways… but it is not the kind of terrific that overcomes that deep a hole. And if it does, it will be fortunate… very fortunate.

Anyway… enough about Munich. Some of the broken pieces may be picked up by the DGA. And to be harsh… if the DGA doesn't go for a Spielberg nomination, the movie really is dead.

Besides those two, I still count another seven films that are legitimate Best Picture contenders. In alphabetical order: Capote, The Constant Gardener, Crash, Good Night, And Good Luck, A History Of Violence, Match Point, and Walk The Line. You can make good arguments for all or any of them… much as you could have for the last few months.

And now we will separate the Oscar (wo)men from the Oscar (wo)mice.

Capote has already launched its most stylistically aggressive TV ad campaign for their film. And Match Point, as it rolls out, will keep advertising nationally.

But the rest of you… uh, them… it's time to muscle up or walk away, Renee. Fox desperately needs to get Johnny Cash into the public conscience. It's time to start using the "Hurt" song and video. New Line needs to launch their video campaign prematurely with a heavy emphasis on History of Violence being about more than guns. Lions Gate needs to do something shocking, like doing a special, one-time showing of the film on television or to find launch a bus bench campaign in L.A. and N.Y. with each of the characters at a moment of impact. Good Night, And Good Luck needs help from PBS, NPR, Walter Cronkite, and other Murrow lovers. (George Clooney will get 27 honorary awards in the next 6 weeks… but as well liked as Clooney is, Murrow is the key, not Clooney.) If Focus is ready to have two contenders get nominated, it's time to get Fernando Meirelles to come to town for weeks, not days.

Really, it's almost too late to do anything. But this could be a season where the #3-#5 nominees are separated by just hundreds or even just scores of votes.

It's not because there aren't any good movies. It's because there are a bunch of very good movies.

And it seems to me that if you look at the last few years of Academy choices, the idea of slotting has died. Finding Neverland, Ray and Sideways? Lost in Translation and Mystic River? Go back to 2003 to find a traditional Academy line-up. Big movies. Four dramas and a musical. The Holocaust, Unhappy Women, Scorsese History, and the Cash Cow Epic.

This year, there is not a single true Oscar movie in the game. This is why some people still believe in Cinderella Man… because it smells like "one of those." Munich felt like "one of those" but, unlike the attacks on the historical accuracy of A Beautiful Mind or the euthanasia of Million Dollar Baby, these attacks have struck harder and more personally within the Academy.

2002: Three small movies, the first Rings and the winner, the non-action true-story high grosser, A Beautiful Mind.

So Walk The Line wins, right?

2001: Soderbergh's two $100 million grossing "art house" films, the first foreign language nominee in forever, a Miramax sweetie, and the winner, the high-grossing studio film, Gladiator.

So King Kong wins, huh?

2000: An intimate drama based on a true story, a heavy drama based on a legendary novel, the year's big surprise hit drama, and a big overwrought studio drama… all beat by a first-time director's version of a first-time screenwriter's personal drama with gay undertones.

So it's Brokeback.

1999: Five period movies, only one without a foreign accent, though it too took place mostly on foreign soil, two well known directors, but the film that wins is from a TV director stepping up with young up and coming actors.

So, it's gotta be Capote, right?

Titanic in 1998. LOTR: Return of The King in 2004. Locks. Big gross, big love, big awards night.

2006. It's anybody's game.

Racers, re-start your engines!

This Week's Oscar Charts
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2004 Oscar Columns

- Email David Poland