..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

15 WEEKS TO GO
Turn, Turn, Turn

Things change.

There is turmoil in every Oscar season. There is also the curse of actually seeing movies, as opposed to forming hopes and dreams from a distance.

Some people look at it like a science project. I look at it like painting. Stroke by stroke, color by color, the canvas becomes the work of art it is meant to be.

All of us who develop opinions about this season prioritize the signals that mean the most to us. For me, September and October media proclamations mean almost nothing. Last year, as it turned out, Team Miramax positioned Finding Neverland early and often and quite brilliantly set it up for late success. Of course, a few votes going in a different direction and they wouldn't have been so brilliant. (See: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind) To the victor go the spoils.

For me, the biggest key to the season since Toronto has arrived in the last 10 days. Last week was defined by the Munich trailer. This week was the arrival of Memoirs of a Geisha.

And somehow, the mixed bag that is Geisha not only affects, in my view, the placement of that film, but it has also had a rather profound effect on my perspective on Brokeback Mountain. The media obsession with Brokeback - which is really all that there is at this point - doesn't hold a lot of sway with me. I still feel that the reception for the film is going to be more mixed - quietly - at the Academy than it has been in the press. And I still believe that the critics awards groups will be all over the spectrum this year, including Brokeback, but also Capote, History of Violence, Constant Gardener, Good Night, And Good Luck, The Squid & The Whale, Breakfast On Pluto and Munich. There are a lot of films to support that need support.

What drew me onto the Brokeback bandwagon at this moment was that I don't think Geisha will draw 80% of the "romantic saga" voters at the Academy. Moreover, in direct comparison, Geisha suffers from its limitations. Brokeback has the dryness and love of inaction that pushed me away from it… but it is still more passionate than the overripe Memoirs… or as I have taken to calling it, Cold Mountin' (Or Geisha Mountain or Cold Memoir), in honor of its question mark of a predecessor, Cold Mountain (which, by the way, I also prefer to Geisha).

Yet, with very strong players in most of the tech areas, I still expect Geisha to rack up 7 nominations without even counting a Director or Picture nod. That should be enough momentum to get the picture to one of those top five slots this year. But then again, Cold Mountain… 7 nominations… no director… no screenplay… no picture.

The performance getting all the buzz in Memoirs is Gong Li's… but I would say that quality of performance has little to do with it. She is Memoir's Renee Zellweger… the one performance that has any energy or exuberance, so therefore, it is confused with being very good. Zellweger won, I think, on Chicago guilt. The Academy doesn't owe Gong Li anything.

But the real problem with Geisha is its obsession with style at the cost of real emotion. The classic moment in the film is when Zhang Ziyi's character has her geisha debut. Rob Marshall dresses her magnificently, puts her in these amazing giant shoes, and then lights her, shoots her, and surrounds her with fake snow in a remarkably dramatic sequence. But the problem is, it wasn't about the geisha. It was about Rob Marshall. We don't really connect with her emotionally. We don't really believe she can dance or perform. In fact, if you think about it, the only reason we know this was a huge success is because we are told that it is. We don't feel it in our guts.

I give Mr. Marshall some room here because he had a real problem that few directors could get over. His leads are communicating in broken English most of the way and while it makes sense to us, since we know they are (mostly) actual Asian-born actors, it means that their ability to communicate doesn't have the fluidity that their native languages would have. And just like watching a performer who can't sing or dance try to find their comfort zone so they can actually act well while doing what they are uncomfortable with.

In any case…

Munich seems like even more of a frontrunner now. It will debut in L.A. on December 5, amazingly, on the same day that Universal unveils King Kong… loooong day.

Walk The Line has to prove itself at the box office, so that will probably be the key event of the next week.

And in the five spot, you have to wonder. None of the "fun" contenders (like Mrs. Henderson Presents) seem to be in position to take the slot right now. The New World, which will finally be seen during the first week of December, could easily emerge to take it. Critical faves that had mixed box office success, The Constant Gardener and A History of Violence could be there. And there is always Crash, which has a lot of fans out there.

The pot continues to swirl. And while every film but Munich still feels vulnerable (and that, one has to acknowledge, hasn't been seen), yet the list of films with muscle seems to get shorter and shorter. (Still, before I would ever take Cinderella Man seriously, Munich would have to flame out.)

The funny thing about making a stew is that you put in all the right ingredients, but there is always one more you want to add at the last minute… a new flavor… a balance… And there are still more than a half-dozen that could step up and be the paprika.

Only one thing is sure. This is still The Year of The Actor. Pretty much every contender, except Munich, has the "It's really an actors' thing, isn't it?" attached to it. Actor soup.

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2004 Oscar Columns

- Email David Poland