..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

BEST ACTRESS
Actress - Film	Comment
If I Had To Pick 5 Today
Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line	She sangs, she twangs, she goes to the Kodak
Dame Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents	This is an easy call. An Academy favorite in the role of a strong, funny woman with a cause
Diane Keaton - The Family Stone	Another legend takes on motherhood with warmth and great humor
Charlize Theron - North Country	No one can question her acting skills anymore... North Country gives her no fewer than five scenes to campaign on
Either Q'orianka Kilcher - The New World or Zhang Ziyi - Memoirs of a Geisha	Either "newcomer" could rise or fall, depending on the film. If either of their movies makes Best Picture, she's a good bet. If not, a decent but not shockingly good perfomance could open the door to one of those on the nex list. Both could make HFPA drama.
The Next Group (in order of likelihood)
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica	Solid performance by a well-liked actress in a bad movie that digresses into sitcom-ese. But look for The Weinstein Company to push HFPA hard to put her in drama.
Joan Allen - The Upside of Anger	She's one of the greats, but needs long memories
Julianne Moore - Freedomland	Another walkin' legend could emerge as HFPA trawls for drama nominees
Gwyneth Paltrow - Proof	The movie died, but in a small field anything is possible and HFPA has a drama slot open
Rosario Dawson - Rent	I'm not even sure that Rosario will be in this slot, but if so, could make HFPA musical
Keira Knightly - Pride & Prejudice	No chance ofr Oscar, but HFPA comedy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Actress - Film	Comment
If I Had To Pick 5 Today
Uma Thurman - The Producers	I haven't seen even the movie, but based on test screening hum, her red carpet perfection, a remarkably open and loving appearance on Oprah (one of the great actor's appearances I have ever seen in any forum), and the homerun that the Ulla role is, she is already both the most likely nominee, but the most likely winner.
Scarlett Johnasson - Match Point	Girl, you are a woman now. She has one great scene in the film, talking about the pain of auditioning. May be one of just two nods
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain	A great performance, the most emotional of the film - that should be taken seriously
Either Michelle Yeoh - Memoirs of a Geisha or Gong Li - Memoirs of a Geisha	Word was Yeoh, but then Gong Li started a press run. We'll know soon enough
Shirley MacLaine - In Her Shoes	The one high-profile veteran in the race is one sharp cookie and unless one of the "next group" really finds a wave, the door is open.
The Next Group (in order of likelihood)
Sarah Jessica Parker - The Family Stone	A nice turn from Sex & The City and a rangey performance. If hubby gets a Producers nod, the he/she pitch could drive her in
Either Patricia Clarkson - All The King's Men or Kate Winslet - All The King's Men	Two great, loved actresses. But the film needs to be strong enough.
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener	Great, daring performance... is it her time?
Catherine Keener - Capote	Probably too small and inaccessible a character, but taut and brilliant against type
Maria Bello - A History Of Violence	A knock-out role, but voters have to be convinced that the movie is serious (which is most certainly is)
Frances Mc Dormand - North Country	One of our great actresses... but her tough performance doesn't get to many shades
Amy Adams - Junebug	One of this year's breakouts... but hard to get out of Indie Spirits...
And...
Toni Collette- In Her Shoes	The central performance, pushed aside. Always great, but this is not the role.
Ginnifer Goodwin - Walk The Line	Too many tears.
Idina Menzel - Rent	This Tony queen could surprise.
Marie-Josée Croze - Munich	A reach from the big mystery title.
Meryl Streep - Prime	She won't fight for it and it's a comedy.
Rachel McAdams - The Family Stone	Tough get for a comedy role.

 

,, Charts - 23 Weeks To Oscar Picture .. | ..Director.. | ..Actor.. | ..Actress.. | ..Screenplay ,,

 

October 13, 2005
- by David Poland