..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

23 WEEKS TO OSCAR

Here is where it starts getting interesting. Every step is examined. Every piece written is scrutinized. One or two missteps can eliminate a film, even if the public hasn't had a chance to see the movie yet. And magic can happen… though we don't seem to be seeing much of that this year.

Imagine a mailroom where 100 people are trying to sort mail into 20 boxes, but the boxes keep moving every 10 seconds or so. And as the season progresses, the number of sorters decreases and the boxes start switching less frequently. Eventually, a few of the sorters get so focused that they never miss the right box. And Mr. Weinstein just shoves whoever is in the way of his sorting out of the way… which in an surprisingly polite dance between people who will eventually rely on people they are battling today for a job tomorrow, is shyly admired, even if spat through clenched teeth.

Toronto didn't change much this year. There were some small gambles, but not a lot of high stakes dice rolling.

The hard-charging newcomer to the game was Mrs. Henderson Presents. The defeated hero was Cameron Crowe's Elizabethtown.

Brokeback Mountain, Capote, and Breakfast On Pluto were pretty universally praised, though when it comes to the Oscar season, all three will need a lot of critical support and a split between the three amongst critics could lead all three into a dangerous place. The gay content in Capote is the least evident and the film will probably end up in more direct competition with Good Night, And Good Luck - which was not in Toronto - because they feel more of a similar time and place and spirit… though Capote is far more accessible with more of a story and less of a pre-ordained conclusion than GN,AGL.

But let's not get carried away, kids.

The miracle movie of 2004 was Sideways, which was not only the best-reviewed film in Toronto, but virtually swept the critics awards. The critics' fervor was intense enough that the studio was able to change release strategies mid-stream and take the film to much greater heights in January.

The three other indie-feel films in the last five years were Gosford Park (still a mystery to me), Lost in Translation (that year's critics' darling), and Finding Neverland, which was brilliantly positioned by Miramax starting in the spring, six months before release.

This year's small films came out of Toronto with great heat, but not unanimity and not singularity. It is possible for multiple small films to be there. But it is a tough get. Sophie's Choice.

Away from Toronto, an international trailers of The Producers and a TV spot that was trailer length for All The King's Men turned up this week. Neither quite hit it out of the park. The Jarhead trailer has a strong following among younger men, but doesn't seem to have reached Academy aged people. And Memoirs of A Geisha is out in force, tough rumor mongering perhaps a way of bringing down a competitor… or perhaps there are some problems. There is no way of knowing until we see it.

Munich, The New World & Syriana remain the biggest titles with the least hint of what we will be getting.

And A History of Violence and The Constant Gardener have gotten great critical support form most quarters, but both went for a commercial release first and hope to double back for awards season. Both have real upside, but both studios have major Nov/Dec releases that will be heavily campaigned and they have to decide just how hard they want to fight for these titles. Again, Capote kind of fits into this camp as well, though it has a more auspicious release pattern for an awards push.

The reality is, a lot of hungry film writers descended upon Toronto this year, desperate to be dazzled. And they were fed a lot of comfort food. Some was more nutritious than other offerings. But remembering the last great meal you had gets harder in time. And by late November - no matter how much we bitched and moaned all spring and summer - we are all big, fat hogs heading to the slaughter. There are too many options. And timing is far too important. And politics are far too important. (This is one reason why the early December voting has really damaged the legitimacy of critics groups. Even the most sincere groups are signing on to being part of a system that is not about perspective and real insight.)

And one of my favorite films of the year, The Family Stone, finally turned out its materials this week… and it turns out that Fox wants to sell it as a broad comedy instead of a very warm, very smart family comedy with real dramatic moments. And so we must look again at whether marketing can kill a great movie. It is much the same question facing Cinderella Man, where the studio basically called the film a high-quality bust last July. Can the film survive that kind of media lockstep?

The great thing about Toronto is that it is, for the most part, really about the movies. And the scary part… we have to come back to reality. You can come home again… but not if you want to wear the latest fashions.

Oscar Charts
Picture
Director
Actor/Supporting Actor
Actress/Supporting Actress
Original/Adapted Screenplay

31 Weeks To Oscar
2004 Oscar Columns

- Email David Poland