Gary Dretzka
Leonard
Klady
David Poland
Douglas Pratt
Ray Pride
WEEK NINETEEN:
What Does It All Mean?Oh what a indecipherable web we weave when we the numbers attempt to retrieve...
If you look only at the top movies - films grossing over $140 million - this year has done better than last year, grossing $1.837 billion vs $1.572 billion last year. But that is, in great part, because there were nine such films this summer, as opposed to six last year.
That's the positive news. But there was an entire middle class between $85 million and $140 million last year that didn't exist this summer. Last year, there were eight films in that range. This year there were none.
Using that $85 million as a base, last summer zooms ahead of this summer, $2.354 billion to just $1.837 billion. The average gross of this summer's "over-85s" is almost $30 million higher per film.
But here's another interesting perspective… half of last summer's $100 million grossers made more than 30% of their eventual total gross in the opening weekend. This year, that group was reduced to one-third. In the process, the average percentage of the total made on opening weekend was 4% lower this year in this highly successful group than it was last year. Longer legs. And the percentage this year will continue to drop, however slightly, as their totals get higher.
Another trend that has continued over the last two years is the reduction of the number of $100 million grossers. The summer of 2003 set the record high with eighteen $100 million movies. Last year, the highest grossing summer (and year) ever, had only twelve $100 million movies, the fewest in this decade. Well… at least until this summer, which has had only nine this summer.
Of course, this information is conflicted. The Top Three movies of Summer 2004 (Shrek 2, Spider-Man 2 and Harry Potter 3) are $255 million ahead of the Top Three summer movies of 2005 (Star Wars 3, War of the Worlds and Batman Begins). That represents 80% of the current $317 million deficit this summer compared to last..
On the other hand, this summer's four-to-ten went a long way towards catching up with Top Ten, the deficit Top Ten vs Top Ten was down to "just" $163 million.
But then, when you compare Top 20s, the differential expands again to a massive $436 million. That number will decrease as films like Dukes of Hazzard keep earning and potentially as The 40 Year Old Virgin and Red Eye pass the $40 million mark. But still…
It can drive a person looking for some sort of logic to it all crazy.
More big movies, but the huge movies aren't as huge. Fewer $100 million grossers, but longer legs for the most successful films.
How do you really start to compare? Anchorman made $23 million more Bewitched, but it also opened to $8 million more. Both films did almost exactly the same multiple. Yet one was amusing - at least to its constituency - and the other just plain sucked. So what lesson is there to learn? Would making Bewitched better really have mattered? Did two Will Ferrell movies in a season poison the well? And why am I giving so much credit to Farrell when Nicole Kidman opened The Stepford Wives to $21 million last summer?
The top film last summer was a sequel, same as last summer. But there were four true sequels in the top twenty last summer - all three of the top draws, plus #13, The Princess Diaries 2 - and only the one (Star Wars) this summer. Was that a business mistake? Do people actually want to see more sequels?
The only sequel other than Star Wars all summer was Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo. A bit of a flop. Read that!
The big name, sell-the-movie-based-on-them stars in the Top Twenty of 2004 were Will Smith, Brad Pitt, Vaughn/Stiller, Cruise, Will Farrell, Hanks, Washington and Kidman. This summer? Cruise, Depp, Pitt/Jolie, Vaughn/Wilson, Sandler, Lopez/Fonda, Lohan, Farrell/Kidman, Crowe, Will Farrell, Orlando Bloom and a penguin to be named later. That's 8 of 20 last year and 11 of 20 (I'm not counting the penguin) this summer.
What does it mean? Will Smith was missed, but he already contributed the shockingly successful Hitch earlier this year. Did we really miss Tom Hanks and Denzel Washington that much when their films last year were a little soft?
Is The Fantastic Four this year's The Day After Tomorrow? Well, one hopes to be a franchise and had a lot more goodwill going in from the comic book.
Is Monster In Law this year's White Chicks? Well, they really spoke to different demographics.
Are The Island & Stealth this year's The Village? Well, The Village almost doubled the domestic gross of those two combined.
Charlie & The Chocolate Factory is going to get to $200 million, making Warner Bros only the second studio in history to have two $200 million movies in one summer. So, does this make Charlie inferior to Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban, which will outgross Charlie by more than $40 million? Or does it make Charlie a massive success, second only to Batman on Burton's resume and to Pirates on Depp's?
Stealth and The Island will both end up behind last summer's The Chronicles of Riddick by about $20 million domestically. Is their ignominy much worse than Riddick's? Or is Riddick's greater because it actually opened to $24 million?
Want to know the real truth? People in this industry love the idea of a trend because it gives them the freedom not to know. But the reality we all have to live with is that Bill Goldman was right and right and right and right. There is no answer. There are no locks but Spider-Man 3 and The Hobbit. Can The Da Vinci Code do $275 million? Sure. Can The Da Vinci Code do $85 million? Yup.
This summer didn't suck at the box office. Madagascar wasn't Shrek 2 and War of the Worlds wasn't Spider-Man 2. Is that really a trend?
No.
And as for all the rest... hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
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20 Weeks of Summer Archive
August 4 , 2005
July 28 , 2005
July 21 , 2005
July 14 , 2005
July 7 , 2005
June 30, 2005
June 26, 2005
June 16, 2005
June 9 , 2005
May 26, 2005
May 13, 2005
May 5, 2005
April 28, 2005
April 21, 2005
April 14, 2005The Summer Chart - June 16, 2005
The Summer Chart - May 26, 2005The Quality Chart
Boxoffice Chart - April 14, 2005
Boxoffice Chart - May 12, 2005
