Gary Dretzka
Leonard Klady
David Poland
Douglas Pratt
Ray Pride

WEEK ONE

Every summer has its own quirks. This year, we are in a near-permanent state of déjà vu.

... Aeon Flux
... Bad News Bears
... Batman
... Bewitched
... Charlie & The Chocolate Factory
... The Dukes of Hazard
... Herbie, The Love Bug
... The Honeymooners
... House of Wax
... The Longest Yard
... The Lords of Dogtown
... The Pink Panther
... War of The Worlds

And that's just the franchise makeovers.

We also have sequels (xXx2 and Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo), the sequel that is also part of a franchise makeover, with the return of classic characters (Star Wars III), the major book adaptations (Fantastic Four, The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Universe and Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants) and the video game adaptation (Doom). Plus there is a historical drama (Cinderella Man - aka Ringbiscuit), the CG animated comedy (Madagascar), Michael Bay, Tony Scott, Robert Rodriguez and… dear God, even Jane Fonda!!!

Fully sixteen of the twenty-nine films I am projecting to gross over $50 million this summer are in the Land of Déjà vu. Only seven of the other twenty-one titles that make up the Top 50 Estimated Box Office Chart are in that category… which shows you how much more potent financially I (and the industry) see(s) those franchised pictures as being.

Still, the truth is that once I get past the first four titles (Star Wars, War of the Worlds, Madagascar and Batman), I'm really open to a lot of arguing. Charlie & The Chocolate Factory could turn out to be great for kids and smash my estimate… or it could be attacked by the conservatives for male make-up use and fail to break 100. Who knows? Could The Island be a really big film? Will the Duke Boys turn out to find a way? Will Josh Lucas accelerate into stardom or remain Stealth?

Wonder of wonders, I think that "Old Paramount" will be a huge winner this summer, scoring three of the top dozen grossers this summer. Two are remakes of great 70s comedy titles, the third a Spielberg/Cruise. This seems to happen every time a change that really was appropriate happens. Geez, Columbia lived on Mark Canton's slate for almost two years when Calley & Pascal came in. The first Brad Grey summer will be next summer.

Also surprising is, I think, New Line's summer. Domino is probably my biggest leap in the top dozen. Interestingly, this is not right in the NL marketing wheelhouse. The teen boys will probably come running for Keira with a gun, but Tony Scott usually draws more urbane adult audiences. Scott's last film, Man on Fire, probably came up tens of millions short because the geeky boys were busy with Kill Bill, Volume 2. I'm thinking this one can combine the two groups… if the movie is up to it, of course. On the other hand, The Wedding Crashers has become one of the summer's 400 pound gorillas (the 800 pounders are further up the food chain). Dodgeball & Hutch meet The Notebook queen with Will Ferrell, Chris Walken, Jane Seymour, and Ellen Albertini Dow as a grandmother with a mouth that's gonna get quoted all August.

Fox's summer looks a lot like last year's, without the big weather show. All three summer releases could open to $20 million. But I don't expect, unlike last year, any of the titles to crack $100 million.

Four of the twelve $100 million titles are comedies… and it's about time. Adam Sandler's film looks like the top breakout, but anything can happen. Will Ferrell has three films this summer, including his Wedding Crashers cameo, and while I expect Kicking & Screaming to be weak, it is the first comedy of the season… good placement means a lot. Bewitched, on the other hand, could be one of the Irwin Allen moments of the summer. The trailers, which focus on the meta aspect of the script, have none of the fun of the old series, with the exception of Michael Caine's magical moments. When are the characters we all knew and loved? Maybe they'll escape in the next run of creative and it will all make sense… maybe not.

It's funny. I put less stock in my $50 million - $100 million group breaking out and shocking the world than I do in the Under $50 million group. Titles like Lords of Dogtown and 40 Year Old Virgin or Sky High could be real surprises if they catch the right wave, whereas a Dark Water or Rebound could do more (or less) at the box office, but don't feel like they are in any position to, say, double my estimates.

And so it begins…

CAREER KILLERS: Fantastic Four, Bewitched, The Brothers Grimm, The Pink Panther

DARK HORSES: Domino, Dark Water, The Honeymooners, Mad Hot Ballroom

WINNING NAMES: Orlando Bloom, Keira Knightley, Cedric The Entertainer, Heath Ledger, Terrence Howard

MISSING IN SUMMER ACTION: Tom Hanks, Harrison Ford, George Clooney, Bruce Willis, Jim Carrey, Eddie Murphy, Julia Roberts, Robin Williams, Mel Gibson, Cameron Diaz, Keanu Reeves, Will Smith

THE CHART

- Email David Poland