Gary Dretzka
Leonard Klady
David Poland
Douglas Pratt
Ray Pride

FOUR DAYS LATER

Is that all there is, is that all there is
If that's all there is my friends, then let's keep dancing
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX- Leiber & Stoller

It seems that a big ol' Quaalude was in every goodie bag given out last weekend because The Big Sleep is upon us. Business goes on, but people can't seem to get excited about box office surprises like Big Momma's Got A Gun or whatever the hell that thing is called.

I've already beaten next year's Best Picture race into the ground. (Che, by the way, is already looking like it won't make the year-end.) I am a bit shocked by the early resistance to The Producers, but I think that has a lot to do with the first time director and questions about whether the score is powerful enough. And I think that they are dead wrong. It can always go bad, but a show like Hairspray has a lot tougher road to hoe… the songs are fun, but the things that drove it as an indie film and as a stage show are very tough to translate… especially to an older audience. On the other hand, Dreamgirls should be nearly impossible to beat in 2007. It has real drama that is more than just "theater" drama, a really fine performance director who knows his way around a musical book and songs that are just waiting to draw kids to Broadway musicals again.

So the early line has the cast of Avenue Q hosting the Oscars next year…

It's really silly to start laying bets on performances at this early date, but…

Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix for Walk The Line vs. Russell Crowe for Cinderella Man vs. Sean Penn for All The Kings Men vs. Jake Gyllenhaal for Jarhead.

Best Actress - Annette Bening for Running With Scissors vs. Cameron Diaz for In Her Shoes

Best Supporting Actor - Matthew Broderick for The Producers vs. Jude Law for All The Kings Men vs. Someone from the Spielberg movie that may be called Vengence. (Watch for Heath Ledger as the shocker of a candidate - whether he makes it or not - for his "comeback" performance in Lords of Dogtown.)

Best Supporting Actress - Uma Thurman for The Producers (if she does her own singing and does it well) vs Pocahontas (Q'Orianka Kilcher) vs. Judy Greer for Elizabethtown vs. Idina Menzel for Rent/Ask The Dust vs. Michelle Yeoh for Memoirs of a Geisha

Okay!!!! Enough already!

But while I'm thinking of Vengence, I guess it is time for someone to suggest that Universal and DreamWorks do what Graham King did last year, shifting The Aviator to Miramax when he saw that Warner Bros, which was supposed to release the film, had too many films to sell in a short period of time. Universal can market the eyes out of many films, but with Jarhead, The Producers and King Kong already on the late in the last two months of the year, how can they handle an early Oscar favorite... one which legitimately threatens two other serious early candidates that they are releasing? It seems like a set-up for, at the very least, a lot of jockeying for position by very powerful industry players.

This ain't Searchlight, juggling David Russell, Bill Condon and Alexander Payne. This is Oscar winner Sam Mendes, Oscar winner Mel Brooks and Oscar winner Peter Jackson making three potentially highly commercial films (King Kong will surely outgross all three of Searchlight's arty trio within its first 10 days.) Maybe Vengeance and King can junket together.

I am struck more and more by the arguments out there that there is too much peripheral action around events like the Oscars and Sundance. But the experience is what you make it in both cases. All of those sooooo distracted by the froo-froo are probably a lot more interested in the froo-froo than in the art. Just a guess…

No, I didn't forget that Bill Condon has an Oscar... not the point...

Isn't it kind of amusing/scary that the Academy is happy to have dropped in the ratings by only single digits?

By the way, The NY Observer's Jake Brooks was kind enough to credit the MCN charts that showed who predicted what this year in the Oscar race, but he and you all should know that the biggest bite of credit due in that project belongs to Laura Rooney, MCN's Managing Editor and in-house Magellan.

Besides the shift to bigger movies next year, the other huge story for insiders will be the shift of Oscar consultants and the creation of at least a couple of new specifically-Oscar pros who will be held up as critical puzzle pieces in much the same way that Tony "Best Actor 2005" Angellotti and Michelle "Best Actress 2005" Robertson are now. The evolution of the Weinsteins is leaving some really fine Oscar publicists loose on the market and there are already some trememdous full service marketers floating around. Look for a few of the more competitive studios to make moves much sooner than later to secure the talent that they want for the season...

We'll be 20 Weeks To Oscar in just 31 weeks... see you then!

My Final Ballot

Last Week 's Charts
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor/Supporting Actor
Best Actress/Supporting Actress
Original Screenplay/Adapted Screenplay

Previous Columns:
February 24, 2005
February 17, 2005
February 10, 2005
The Case for Sideways
The Case for Million Dollar Baby
The Case for The Aviator
February 3, 2005
January 27, 2005
The Post Nominations
January 20, 2004
January 13, 2004
January 6, 2004
December 30, 2004
December 23, 2004
December 16, 2004
December 9, 2004
December 2, 2004
November 25, 2004
November 18, 2004
November 11, 2004
November 4, 2004
October 28, 2004
October 21, 2004
October 14, 2004
23 Weeks To Oscar: September 23, 2004
Oscar Preview: August 4, 2004

- br David Poland