Gary Dretzka
Leonard Klady
Emanuel Levy
David Poland
Douglas Pratt
Ray Pride

SEVENTEEN WEEKS TO GO

A lot of hard core lefties have to be thanking the red states, privately and through tightly gritted teeth. Ding Dong, Fahrenheit 9/11 is dead… at least as far as Oscar goes. Some people will theorize that Bush backlash could inspire a nomination, but I don't imagine there is that kind of fight in enough Academy members to nominate out of spite.

But what also hit me, on the other end of the political spectrum, is that Bush's victory probably ends any hope The Passion of The Christ had for a Best Picture nod. As described in last week's column, the numbers for The Passion were already quite challenging. But with a Bush win, the emotional need for "Secret Blue Hollywood" to strike back has surely dissipated. Jim Caviezal would still not be a shock as a SAG nominee and that actor support always leaves a door open to an Oscar nod. But one nomination seems like the only possibility… and even that has become remote.

We are still in a holding pattern with a few key movies… but only for another week or so. This week on the charts, Ray got a double bump, a slot opening thanks to the election and a strong opening that has people getting big box office stars in their eyes. I do think that it is easy to be overwhelmed by the percentage of positive reviews while disregarding the intensity. Still, I believe that if Ray can get to $80 million domestic, it signals that the film has taken firm hold as more than just any movie… and with Angellotti holding the whip, it becomes an Oscar lock… especially with F9/11 losing its slot. If the film stalls around $60 million, it is still well in the race… but the other titles coming up in the next week or two will have a lot to say about it.

Also getting a boost from the Michael Moore boot is Kinsey, which is finally turning up in national spots that emphasize the central couple in the film and don't press the cameos. Interesting choice. At some point, they'll need to let people know that there are lots and lots of familiar faces in the film… the Mystic River effect. But I was surprised by the tactic in these spots and I kinda like it.

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, The Motorcycle Diaries, The Sea Inside, Vera Drake and Hotel Rwanda all have to be heartened by the available slot, an added motivation to step things up again. Finding Neverland should get even more brazen in the weeks to come. And Sideways is now looking like it has secured its spot in the Final Five as The Critics' Choice with this extra working room.

George W. Bush, Hero of the Indie World… go figure.

AT THIS MOMENT, things are remarkably still for a moment this late in the awards season. Remember, in six weeks, the first round of bullets - the nominations, except for Oscar - will all have been fired. But, unlike last year when Cold Mountain was slotted in until the very last minutes of the pre-game shows, no one seems comfortable enough to make the assumption that The Aviator and Closer are locked in, they are still tapping around The Phantom of the Opera and the title Spanglish still garners a load of blank looks. Million Dollar Baby? No trailer and a one-sheet is being circulated on the web that I haven't been able to confirm is the real one-sheet as of this writing. Warner Bros' Academy screening schedule says that the film will start screening on November 22. Late.

As I wrote before, the first real wave of Kinsey selling is coming, Finding Neverland, A Very Long Engagement and Sideways will both go wide this month. Focus is revving things back up for The Motorcycle Diaries and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. And major numbers of industry folks are about to see the big titles that will finally lock or unload.

SMALL WONDERS

A few category possibilities that may need a little pointing out at this point…

The Score of The Incredibles - Michael Giacchino's first studio feature score is a thing of beauty. Giacchino is best know for his TV work on Alias and Lost and a bunch of videogames… and this score is derivative. But damned, does it kick ass!!! People sit still during credits, not only enjoying the concept art, but the grooving music.

Lynn Redgrave and William Sadler - They give brief, home run performances as people having their sex histories taken in Kinsey. People keep mentioning Judi Dench's turn in Shakespeare in Love as a point of reference for Redgrave's Oscar chances.

The Production Design on Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - I saw some clips from the film last week and the visual intensity of Rick Heinrichs' design is overwhelming.

Dion Beebe & Paul Cameron broke down new digital walls with their photographic work on Collateral, a movie that already has a unique place in film history.

Paz Vega in Spanglish - If the film does find its way, word is that she really owns this movie. Early word was Cloris Leachman, but if the film threatens for Best Picture, Ms. Vega could well come along.

This Week's Charts
Picture | Director | Actor/Supporting Actor | Actress/Supporting Actress
Screenplay/Adapted Screenplay

Previous Columns:
Week Two: October 28, 2004
Week Two: October 21, 2004
Week One: October 14, 2004
23 Weeks To Oscar: September 23, 2004
Oscar Preview: August 4, 2004

- br David Poland