Gary Dretzka
Leonard Klady
David Poland
Douglas Pratt
Ray Pride

WEEK ONE

Last year, the entire season felt like there was a surprise around every corner. The screener battle was raging by this time, the season was short for the first time in years and Harvey Weinstein's sure bet, Cold Mountain, was still the object of great expectations.

In the end, the Academy members did just what they felt like doing, which was to vote in the most unexpectedly eclectic group of nominees in years. The managed to find films like City of God, embraced Lost in Translation and throw a bunch of awards Lions Gate's way, while leaving Cold Mountain (not to mention The Last Samurai and 21 Grams) high and dry.

This year, the season is already pounding like the heart of a hummingbird in heat. Warner Bros. is in position to eat the awards season whole with three big awards contenders, plus an interest in The Aviator, and massive releases The Polar Express and Ocean's 12 still on the way in less than two months. In fact, the mystery of The Phantom of The Opera, Alexander, Million Dollar Baby and The Aviator are nearly all the mystery left… and it's just October 14. Columbia, which has "just" two big horses in the race, is also a short while from lifting the veil.

Those six films are all that is separating us from the first influential votes of the season. This is somehow both thrilling and terribly sad. With three months to go until Oscar nominations, it would be nice to have the sense that there is some time to breathe. But alas, no.

Sure there are plenty of delights to be looking forward to, from the new Wes Anderson to John Travolta playing age, but without a Lord of the Rings anywhere in sight, there will still be few objective markers after the unexpected failures are filed away and forgotten.

For as long as I can remember, the 25th of December was a key date in the season. Now, it is November 25. In fact, in the 23 days between November 2 and Thanksgiving, on November 25, the entire awards situation will be exposed, parsed and finally defined for this year. Of course, nothing is over until it is over and Academy voting doesn't close until mid-January, but campaigners have to worry about the tsunami that is coming.

The Independent Spirit Awards are now announcing nominations on November 30 because, apparently, being first is more important than anything else. The great unknown is the fiscal standard that the IFP ISAs is going to set for independence. With the highest profile indies costing more and more, the TV show, which seems to be taking on more importance than the support of the independent ideal, is in danger of losing its celebrity power. Last year, they awarded 21 Grams a special award, allowing an on-air celebration of Sean Penn and Naomi Watts and Benecio del Toro. This year, at least one major title has already started pretending that it cost $5 million less than it really cost in order to qualify.

Oscar campaigners have given up on the Golden Globes themselves, but still grasp for the importance of Golden Globe nominations. And, indeed, Alec Baldwin was probably helped by his Golden Globe nomination. But without the power of actual anointment and with ten - or even eleven last year - nominees in categories where the Oscars have five, missing so many Oscar nominations completely suggest a separation of thinking. And as much as the Golden Globes holds media sway now, the event is quickly becoming just another landmark in the season and not the critical moment it was once thought to be.

This year is a perfect example of where The Globes may mean very little in the end. Will it be considered a death blow for Sideways if it doesn't get a Best Picture - Musical or Comedy nod from the HFPA? Yes. But does being one of ten nominees guarantee anything? Obviously not… five will not make the cut. And if you are Keisha Castle-Hughes or Samantha Morton or Djimon Hounsou or City Of God, you have to laugh and wonder why the foreign press doesn't like foreigners.

National Board of Review will announce sometime… another landmark. Broadcast Film Critics announces its nominations on December 15 in anticipation of its first network televised awards show on January 9…. Two more key landmarks. New York Film Critics, L.A. Film Critics, Top Ten lists…

Chasing Oscar has become like marketing an art film. Little laurels litter the advertising, assuring quality by quantity of accolade, more so than selling the film itself. And the Oscar voter is the audience, grosses replaced by votes.

But not everyone sells indies the same way. Some films have enough saleable elements to just sell direct to the audience. Other films play every festival they can, but have to worry about shooting their entire load on free screenings, never getting people to cast their vote, even though the title is perceived as "well liked." Harvey Weinstein is known for his relentless selling, no matter how good, bad or mediocre the product. Focus consultant Michelle Robertson is known for figuring out the keys to their films and just riding the wave of the movie in a very laid back way, slow and steady. Universal/Disney Animation's Tony Angellotti is known for his patter, selling journalists and everyone else on his idea of the big picture, which his films just happen to fit perfectly into. Some studios use big stars as cudgels. And many use rolled eyes and sharp knives to try to slow the competition.

The biggest question this year is timing. When do you have to throw your movie to the awards wolves? A few weeks early can be deadly, especially if you have an audience film that critics will want to savage. On the other hand, too late is often too late. Cold Mountain was excused by its late date last year, but the truth was it got sampled and it got trampled. And the only way to handle that was rehabilitation, which Miramax simply didn't have the time to pull off.

Closer and The Aviator are the two titles that need to work that out this year. If they wait too long to start screening, their futures will be based on nothing but… gasp!... the movie and awards voters will decide for themselves. The thing is, no matter how great you feel your movie is, you never know exactly how it will be perceived. And, unlike opening movies, awards season is as much about managing reactions - fourth weekend audiences - as it is about the first blast.

In any case, the speculation will continue until official answers exist. But the narrowing of the field should be pretty extreme this year. If there are 50 films that had serious awards ambitions in May, we'll be down to 15 by December 1. And then all this effort and speculation and energy will be about such a small handful of films.

The charts, you will see, have expanded a bit, taking the Golden Globes possibilities into account. Please keep in mind that I am not trying to forecast the final result today. I don't consider that a worthy effort, especially before so many films have been seen. Each week, the charts will look at where we are today, including speculation, tracking that buzz day to day to day, screening by screening and political decision after political decision. Fahrenheit 9/11 will not be on any of my lists for the Great 8 categories if George W. Bush wins… that is simple. Reading the level of traction on a Sideways or a Million Dollar Baby, which has been set for December but is still a complete mystery, is another thing altogether. But I remind you, there is a reason why they run the entire race and not just the first quarter mile.

And they're off!!!

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October 14, 2004

- Email David Poland