Gary Dretzka
Leonard Klady
David Poland
Ray Pride







PictureX Director
xxActor/Supporting ActorXXActress/Supporting Actress
xScreenplay/Adapted Screenplay

BEST PICTURE
Picture - Studio
Comment
Over $40 Million Budget  
The Aviator - Miramax
Still the great mystery... Said to be working its way back to 2 hours 30 minutes... who will be left at Miramax to do the heavy lifting?
Alexander - Warner Bros. Oliver Stone's epic has been delayed by a few weeks, but there is no hiding
Closer - Columbia Negative buzz on this one probably a good sign (added note on comment)
The Phantom Of The Opera - Warner Bros The dark horse for 800 lb. gorilla of the season
Rope Burns - Warner Bros Will Eastwood get out of the gate early for a run?
Spanglish - Columbia Jim Brooks took on Adam Sandler baggage, but has worked and succeeded with a lot less
 
Under $40 Million Budget
Beyond The Sea - Lions Gate I'm not a fan of the film, but I'm not a retired industry professional either
Kinsey - Fox Searchlight Smart & sophistcated, Bill Condon's film is more than the sum of your assumptions
The Motorcycle Diaries - Focus Features Some are gearing up to attack this coming of age film politically and because it was at Sundance, Toronto Fest was too quiet, but a terrific movie...

The Sea Inside - New Line

De quién vida es él, de todas formas? Bardem is a lock, but this imtimate drama has a hard road
The Passion Of The Christ - Newmarket
$370 million and people are embarrassed to embrace it in Hollywood... but there are a lot of closet fans who get to vote
Ray - Universal Toronto was a boon for Jamie Foxx and a bit of a drag for this quality musical biopic... that is just too long
Sideways - Fox Searchlight A film so small that it didn't seem possible to mention in the same breath as "Oscar." We'll see if Searchlight can maintain the overwhelming Toronto buzz.
A Very Long Engagement - Warner Indie The first WIP film that Mark Gill had a hand in from the start
 
Moved Out Of Season Since August
Dear Frankie - Miramax Miramax just can't jiggle more than a cople of balls right now
In Her Shoes - Fox was never really in 2004
Millions - Fox Searchlight a nice little movie that wants more word of mouth before it opens
An Unfinished Life - Miramax an unfinished life on the shelf
The Weatherman - Paramount too late for 2004
 
Other Possibles - By Studio
Disney
The Life Aquatic With Steve Zissou Could be a hit but too off-beat for Oscar
DreamWorks
Collateral
The quietest $100 million movie of the summer will have to kill for a nomination
Shrek 2 Won the cash crown... look to animation
Focus
The Door In The Floor It's hard to get attention for a good movie that bombs
Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind
Is $35m domestic enough to make peoiple think "hit" instead of "miss"withoiut brainwashing?
Fox Searchlight
I Heart Huckabee's Almost as confusing to Academy voters as the new coded DVD players
Lions Gate
Fahrenheit 9/11 Bush is ahead in the polls... F9/11 falls behind
Stage Beauty A variation of Shakespeare In Love... but not quite as smooth
MGM
De-Lovely It's De-Over...
Miramax
Proof Another tear-jerking theatrical adaptation... they show, we'll know...
Finding Neverland Might be too small to take hold
New Line
The Notebook It built all summer, but now, too commercial
The Upside Of Anger A performance-driven think-y
Paramount
Alfie Feels very commercial, no?
Lemony Snicket's A Series Of Unfortunate Events You're so money! But will you respect me in the voting?
The Manchurian Candidate The film became a summer afterthought
Sony
A Love Song For Bobby Long John Travolta could be making a late seasonn run at acting.
Spider-Man 2 Swinging into tech categories near you
Sony Pictures Classics
Being Julia A bit too stiff... though Bening is hot
Bad Education Almodovar bends another genre over a chair
House Of Flying Daggers All chop, all socky, all Zhang Ziyi
Twentieth Century Fox
Stay Is this Forster film really coming out?
Universal
Bridget Jones: Edge Of Reason You had me at the original
Synergy The mighty Weitz show rolls on
Warner Bros
The Polar Express What will Zemeckis leave under the tree?
Warner Indie
We Don't Live Here Anymore
Very dramatic, but can WIP sell a soft performer?

30 Weeks To Oscar Charts
Picture ||..Directorx|xActor/Supporting Actor ||..|Actress/Supporting Actress
xScreenplay/Adapted Screenplay


September 23, 2004

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