Gary Dretzka
Leonard Klady
David Poland
Ray Pride

50 Movies go into the summer… less than half will emerge happy…

At the time we first had a summer with two $300 million grossers (1994’s The Lion King and Forrest Gump), the only prior summer movies to make $300 million summer were E.T. and Jurassic Park. In both 2001 and 2003, we had two $300 million summer movies in each year. In between, only ID4 and The Phantom Menace were able to turn the trick. And we should be in another summer without any films hitting that mark this year.

It’s not because there aren’t movies that will be vastly popular. But the most intensely packed summer yet, combined with a still-growing home entertainment business, should keep the films from getting the second wind that is so critical for passing that milestone. Of course, not every film is chasing that huge number. Many films would be thrilled to gross $50 million.

The bloodiest dates on the schedule are once again in June, both on the 11th and the 25th. June 11 offers three major studio films. They are all targeting different demos, but every marketer hopes to find a bigger room for their product. And the opportunity isn’t there. Same with the 25th, where six movies, every one with a question mark, compete for dollars.

The chart below is about money. There is no way of really judging anything else at this point (and barely that, really) because we haven’t seen most of the films. But this is my best educated guess. In a few weeks, 15 Weeks of Summer will begin and the charts surely will change. What will the surprise hit be… the surprise failure? Let me know what you think…. As though I could stop you.

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