..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Ray Pride
..Patricia Vidal

10 Days To Go
5 Days Until Voting Closes

It’s funny. At this point in the game, there's a sense that the shortened Oscar season is not only a success, but a triumph. Even more so, that it could be a week or two shorter for most people.

Perhaps it's because the closest thing to a real fight in the final round is Jackson, New Line & Co. fighting not to start gloating before the envelopes are actually open and the words “And The Oscar Goes To Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” four or five or six times. But I think it is more than that. For better of for worse, the real race was the race to be nominated. And by the time the next round of ballots went out, voters had seen the films and made up their minds.

And isn’t that the way it should be?

Let me throw this suggested wrinkle into the process. My vote for next year would be to ban all screeners to all groups until December 10. This way, everyone would be encouraged to fight the fight in movie theaters for most of the race. I hate the idea of going back to having a living room full of screeners before Thanksgiving next year. The massive number of screenings and effort put forth by the studios this year was wonderful. The LAFCA complaint about the excessive load of December movies will be solved this year by the marketplace, as it should be. And by allowing screeners to go out on December 10, you give Oscar voters and others a full month to watch screeners as necessary… a convenience, but no longer a crutch.

Also, by setting a late release date for screener shipping, you set up a greater equality between studios, many of whom feel hamstrung by the idea of sending out tapes even before their theatrical releases.

Finally, speaking to the piracy issue, this would allow almost every movie to at least get close to a formal release date before sending out tapes. I predict that there will be just one or two real contenders this year that come out after December 10.

This might also inspire some groups to move their awards processes a little later in the year, to be sure that they’ll get all the tapes. And for the awards line-up to start a little later in December wouldn’t be such a bad thing.

WILL & SHOULD

This year, I am finding myself more turned off than usual about the whole “Will & Should” game played in so many media outlets. I guess that people understand that it is really a “Will & I Like This Best” thing. But there is something about the word “should” that is becoming less and less appealing to me.

For instance, Tim Robbins is going to win Best Supporting Actor. It is a spectacular performance. On the other hand, I have been wishing that Djimon Hounsou could get his due for the performance in In America since the first time I saw the film. But do I really think that Djimon “should” beat Tim? I can’t really say that. They are such different performances in completely opposite styles, Robbins getting small and Djimon stretching out to his full regality. And then there is Benicio del Toro’s act of perfection in 21 Grams… a perfect (and really lead) performance in a difficult film.

Can we really begin to compare Peter Jackson’s work on Lord of the Rings to Sofia Coppola’s Lost in Translation? Does the work of adapting a monster like Return of the King compare to paring down Mystic River or creating a new form out of a few old ones with American Splendor?

There is not a category this year about which I would complain if either of two (or more) nominees won. Honestly, of the five director nominees, I would be happy with any of them. I am thrilled for Peter Jackson and all, but if Sofia or Fernando or Clint or The Great Weir won, I would still be pretty happy.

Even though I am not a Cold Mountain fan, I thought Jude Law was wonderful in the movie and if he or any of the other four nominees win, I’m happy for them. I want to hear Bill Murray or Johnny Depp’s speeches, but these are five tremendous performances.

THE BIG UPSET

People keep asking where the night’s big surprise will come. I don’t consider Shohreh Aghdashloo a big surprise anymore, so it comes down to two. Johnny Depp as Best Actor and Gary Ross for Best Adapted Screenplay.

I think Bill Murray has helped himself immeasurably with his Golden Globes speech and, as the race closes, with his faxed BFCA speech, read by Sofia Coppola. (The same gambit didn’t win Charlie Kaufman his shoulda-won Oscar last year for Adaptation.) But he is still not an industry beloved and neither is Sean Penn. Depp is shockingly well-liked.

Seabiscuit is quite well liked and there is little other opportunity to reward Gary Ross. The film could surprise in costume or cinematography, but this is their chance to give it to the guy who really made it all happen. So it might happen.

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The Rankings: February 19, 2003

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20 Weeks To Oscar: February 12
20 Weeks To Oscar: February 4
20 Weeks To Oscar: January 29
20 Weeks To Oscar: January 22
20 Weeks To Oscar: January 16
20 Weeks To Oscar: January 11
20 Weeks To Oscar: January 4
20 Weeks To Oscar: December 26
20 Weeks To Oscar: December 19
20 Weeks To Oscar: Critics Week Special
20 Weeks To Oscar: December 11
20 Weeks To Oscar: December 4
20 Weeks To Oscar: November 27
20 Weeks To Oscar: November 20
20 Weeks To Oscar: November 13
20 Weeks To Oscar: November 6
20 Weeks To Oscar: October 30
20 Weeks To Oscar: October 23
21 Weeks To Oscar
23 Weeks To Oscar
29 Weeks to Oscar

- by David Poland