..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Ray Pride
..Patricia Vidal

7 Weeks To Go
2 Days To The Close Of Nominations
by David Poland

What's the use of wonderin'?

The SAG nominations came out this morning and it clarified the entire Oscar race with great precision… nobody has the slightest idea of what's going to happen once you get past Lord of the Rings: Return of the King and Mystic River.

As usual, I have to clarify here that just because I think that a set of nominations doesn't mean much does not mean that I am showing a lack of respect or enthusiasm for the nominees.

But these SAG nominations are, as usual, an iffy proposition. First, the likelihood is that less than 10% of ballots that will be sent in to the Academy are still out (perhaps less than 5%), so the role of being a persuader is virtually non-existent. Second, even though the Academy is dominated by actors, the voting for SAG often shows odd biases that do not show up in the Oscar nominations.

For instance, I can understand why Lord of the Rings got an ensemble nomination and nothing else. But the only other film to do the same, In America, doesn't make as much sense, as the film is a more a series of individual performances than a classic ensemble - like Mystic River, for instance. SAG's support of The Station Agent is lovely, but is it anything more than an actors' movie?

Rays of hope have been given to deserving performers like Holly Hunter, Evan Rachel Wood, Chris Cooper (who could not care less) and Patricia Clarkson, who is two weeks away from an Entertainment Weekly story on which actors were unfairly overlooked by Oscar this year. (Personally, I disagree. Love Clarkson… loved her before High Art… but these are not among her best performances, mostly because they are not really great characters or given time to become as complex as they want us to feel they are.)

I've been dragging my feet on Alec Baldwin as a Supporting Actor candidate - and I still don't see it for a TV level role - but he may be the one candidate who has a real shot that has not been given a lot of respect.

Perhaps the greatest surprise on the lists is that American Splendor's Paul Giamatti and Hope Davis were both overlooked. I mean, Peter Dinklage was terrific in his role, but Giamatti… wow… such a performance! Johnny Depp was a surprise, but not really. Don't be surprised if he gets an Oscar nod. It was, indisputably, the most talked about performance of 2003. It wasn't as poignant as Sean Penn in Mystic River or even Bill Murray in Lost In Translation… but everyone who saw Pirates (aka everybody) talked about Depp.

All that said… blah, blah, blah… the SAG nods mean virtually nothing this year. The story of this year's awards season is the learning curve - as influencers of the past become much less influential as nominations don't have the impact of wins. If Peter Dinklage won a SAG award two weeks ago, you can bet that he had a real chance of getting an Oscar nod. But a nomination today is very Wimpy… I would gladly pay you a week from Tuesday for a SAG award today.

And don't get too excited about the latest bad sign for Cold Mountain. Anyone who ever bought the "it's a race between Cold Mountain and Rings for Best Picture" fertilizer deserves what they get. Yes, there is a very real possibility that Cold Mountain will go without an Oscar nomination for Best Picture this year. But not because of SAG or BFCA or anything but the simple question of whether 20% of Oscar voters put the film 1, 2 or 3 on their list.

The bottom line is: Cold Mountain has lost some status, but remains one of five or six pictures that remain mystery dates for the Academy Awards. We can all claim to have this insight or that, but the truth is that Cold Mountain, In America, Lost in Translation, Master & Commander and Seabiscuit are all as likely as not to make the cut as the third, fourth and fifth film. And if Academy members find another film for the five slot, like The Last Samurai, that wouldn't shock me either.

One note - just because I now consider Mystic River a lock does not mean that I see it as the main competition for Return of the King. I don't think that Mystic River can win Best Picture. Clint could possibly upset Peter Jackson, though I doubt it. But the second great lesson of this year is that the race for the win is quite different than the race for nominations. It is not a simple continuation of the process…. especially in a year like this one where there are so many major contenders with so much studio money behind them.

And there is the irony… the three movies that need Academy nominations more than the others - in order to support the idea that such films should exist in this marketplace - are not mostly small films, but Master & Commander, Cold Mountain and In America.

But my cynical heart feels a ray of hope. Once you get over the truth, which is that the Academy is not the true arbiter of what is best but the arbiter of what a certain demographic feels is best, it seems that 2004 will be the Oscar year most based on the actual films and not just the hype. The short season has, miraculously, given control back to the movies. Marketers can lead the horse to water but they don't have enough time anymore to make them think.

Next year, the battles will start in earnest in October. Yikes!

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The Rankings: January 15, 2003

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20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Twelve
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Eleven
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Ten
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Nine
20 Weeks To Oscar: Critics Week Special
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Seven
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Six
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Five
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Four
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Three
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Two
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week One
21 Weeks To Oscar
23 Weeks To Oscar
29 Weeks to Oscar

- by David Poland