..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Ray Pride
..Patricia Vidal

Special Edition
A CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS RESPONSE

You really wouldn't be too surprised if every winner at the BFCA Awards also won the Oscar, would you?

It was a lovely night at the BFCA Awards. My favorite moment of the night, when I watched the show via Tivo later this evening, was when the Best Ensemble Awards was given and a total of 5 actors from the three films that were not Mystic River (that number includes Laura Linney for Love Actually) were in the room and the only E! shot that had any actors in it was of Harry Shearer and Fred Willard from A Mighty Wind. The grand and glorious Bill Nighy was in the house, but we never got to see him. We did see tables full of publicists though. and while many of the publicists were babe-alicious and/or dashingly handsome this night, it was not the point.

Don't get me wrong. The turnout for the show was quite good, less than 10 no-shows ultimately. And only one won (Keisha Castle-Hughes, who lives in New Zealand). But it did point up two of the things that are so odd about this year's awards season… the lack of star power and the large number of international casts that just can't get to the shows often enough.

The event should be important for a number of people seeking Oscar attention. This was the first televised win for Charlize Theron and her grace in her speech continues her status as the prohibitive favorite to win Best Actress. Diane Keaton's best chance to make headway would have been to have presented something and been giddily charming. Didn't happen.

Supporting Actress remains one of the most unsettled categories in the race. Holly Hunter's breathtaking performance in Thirteen was acknowledged with a nomination and then snubbed. Even more surprisingly, Scarlet Johansson, who was really the lead in Lost In Translation, came in third in the voting, behind Patricia Clarkson and w winner Renee Zellweger. Whoever dressed Johansson for the awards did a good job of making her look like an Oscar worthy actress. Unfortunately, her read of the prompter when presenting did not. My guess is that Zellweger, Marcia Gay Harden and Ms. Hunter will be more competitive with one another on Oscar night.

The In America win for Screenplay surely locks the expected Oscar nod for the script. And it should indicate to whatever Oscar voters who still have their ballots just how much love there is for this film out there, with the Sheridans taking a full 35% of the vote. The question of the screenplay's Oscar battle with Lost In Translation is still unresolved, the two will go head-to-head, with three new titles, in the Original Screenplay category. I suspect the only other major vote-getter will be Love Actually. So it will be interesting.

The Sheridan family (which now seems to include Emma and Sarah Bolger, who interact with Jim and Naomi and Kirsten and Fran and Tess and Djimon and Samantha as though they were their immediate family) had a lovely night and made a good showing. Samantha Morton was breathtaking - even more so in real life than on TV, where her eye-color and inherent peacefulness don't quite come across - in an elegant black dress. And Djimon Hounsou, who was given an old and mediocre joke to tell, made the scene with his mom, who made it clear where Djimon's elegance and physical beauty come from.

Andrew Jarecki, who took Best Doc for Capturing The Friedmans, surely turned some heads with a speech that was humble and spoke to his singular passion for the clearing of Jesse Friedman's name. When I spoke to him during the evening, he was anxious to continue the conversation about Jesse. But there was something else that was touching. He included his young son Maxon in each conversation as people came up to see him, making it subtly clear just how much his family matters to him in a real way.

Johnny Depp did well on stage, but shined even more brightly off-screen, as he was absolutely available and charming in the room, even while greeting a star struck (and fearless) Emma Bolger or a camera-bearing Maria Salas.

Sadly, this evening did nothing further the cause of Lost In Translation and if anything, it hurt. Sofia Coppola was damaged by E!'s inability to produce a top-line television product and looked lost indeed when turning up on the monitor from New York. A good TV show would have had Coppola and Scarlet Johansson present an award together instead of leaving Ms. Coppola in a colorless box to try to look focused when there was nothing to focus on. Bill Murray's no-show, particularly in light of Johnny Depp and Sean Penn being in the house, probably won't keep him from an Oscar nomination. But a bad signal was sent and I don't think it's changing anytime soon, much to my dismay. It shouldn't be about that… but for many, it is.

Of course, the big winner was Lord of the Rings: Return of the King and the juggernaut is now officially launched. Rings was one of only two films to win more than one award. The other was Mystic River with 2 wins, for Penn and Robbins, both of whom seem to be likely locks for Academy Awards.

134 of 183 BFCA members voted. (Why 27% of the membership failed to vote is beyond my compression.) None of Rings' four wins - in every category for which it got nominated - carried less than 30% of the vote and Peter Jackson's directing win took a whopping 60% of the vote.

For those counting at home, the Academy method of counting nomination votes (which I got quite wrong in Friday's THB), adapted to the BFCA membership size, would require 36 votes to reach the 20% level necessary to nominate in the first round. These are BFCA finals, but essentially, they are the same as #1 votes in the Oscar nominations process. Every winner would be a first-round nominee. Only City of God, in Foreign Language, would grab a nomination in addition to its category's winner by that standard. The other second place finishers that got close (30 votes or better) were Bill Murray, Ken Watanabe, Alec Baldwin, the song "School of Rock" and Danny Elfman's Big Fish score.

Turning up in the "danger zone," which is less than 10% of the votes, were Russell Crowe, Naomi Watts, Jennifer Connelly, Samantha Morton, Nicole Kidman, Paul Bettany, Marcia Gay Harden, Tim Burton, Jim Sheridan, Brother Bear and all the Best Picture nominees other than Rings, Mystic River and In America.

Obviously, four of six Best Actress nominees being "in danger" will not be clearly reflected in the Oscar nominations. There will be five nominations out of these six names. But it is a good indication of where Charlize Theron will be on Oscar night. And I am not saying that In America should be considered the #3 film in the Best Picture race. Just food for thought.

Cold Mountain and Master & Commander did not have great nights.

The other big Oscar-related wins, besides Peter Jackson and Ms. Theron, were Finding Nemo with 85% of the vote, Capturing The Friedmans with 46% of the vote and Renee Zellweger with 37% of the vote.

For the record, I do not think that BFCA should print the full results. It is a somewhat classless move. I suspect that studios would be thrilled to get these details if the info was not made public.

Some have said that the Oscars may be quite boring this year, with set wins in a lot of slots. Rings is fairly sure to win Picture and Director. Penn vs. Murray could be competitive enough to let Ben Kingsley slip in for the win, but Penn wil probably take it going away from the missing Murray. Charlize will win. Tim Robbins will win. If anything can be read into Scarlet Johansson's poor showing at BFCA, Renee Zellweger may get her Chicago Oscar for Cold Mountain. The screenplay battles will be real. Nemo will win. Capturing The Friedmans has to get nominated, but if it is, it will win.

The real race in this year's Oscar race will be the honor of getting nominated. Will Cold Mountain get dumped? Can in America get a Best Picture nod? Will Seabiscuit close from behind? Have Academy members embraced Lost In Translation and Master & Commander?

The race is really on now… and it essentially ends in a week.

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The Rankings: January 6, 2003

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20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Eleven
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Ten
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Nine
20 Weeks To Oscar: Critics Week Special
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Seven
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Six
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Five
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Four
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Three
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Two
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week One
21 Weeks To Oscar
23 Weeks To Oscar
29 Weeks to Oscar

- by David Poland