..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Ray Pride
..Patricia Vidal

8 Weeks To Go
8 Days To The Close Of Nominations

The National Society of Film Critics and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association’s support of American Splendor should have a significant impact… on the Independent Spirit Awards.

Huzzah to the groups for voting for whatever they wanted to vote for, but I guess someone has to point out the irony of it all… the only two films that hadn’t been in release or were not being screened endlessly in the month of November that either of these groups awarded were Monster and Lord of the Rings. Monster premiered at the AFI Film Festival on November 16 and was not overscreened in the following weeks, though screenings were available. Rings had a well-attended LAFCA screening on December 1, just days after the first DGA screening, to which LAFCA members were invited.

Monster was sent out on DVD in December. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King was not sent out and will not be sent out to anyone other than the Academy… and only after the film is nominated.

In other words, the screener ban had no effect on either of these awards… whether the ban or the overturning of the ban.

The same is true of the New York Film Critics Circle. Of the three groups, a total of six awards were given to December releases out of a total possible 45 awards, including runners up. And only three films are represented: Rings, Monster and House of Sand & Fog.

But they did better than the “true indies,” who got only four awards from these three groups, one each for Lions Gate’s Shattered Glass (Peter Sargaard) and Girl With A Pearl Earring (cinematographer Eduardo Serra) and two for Manhattan Pictures’ The Secret Lives of Dentists (Hope Davis and Screenplay).

There were 10 films in contention this awards season from the companies that fought the screener ban in court. Five got awards from these three groups, including the split award for Patricia Clarkson’s performances in The Station Agent and Pieces of April. The third film, 21 Grams, got one award for Naomi Watts by LAFCA. Thirteen, Laurel Canyon, The Safety of Objects, Party Monster and The Company all went without any wins. And 10 of the 12 total awards to these films were evenly split between Lost In Translation and American Splendor… even though American Splendor never sent out a screener, even after the ban was overturned.

Was there a single vote of these 12 that had anything at all to do with seeing movies on screeners? Maybe the Girl With A Pearl Earring cinematography award… but what would that say about the valuation of cinematography? Overall, I doubt it. Maybe someone in one of these groups will disagree.

What impact will critics have on this year’s Academy Awards? There are two clear likelihoods coming out of these top critics’ groups. One is a Best Adapted Screenplay nod to Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini for American Splendor… which has been on my charts since October 23, moved into 6th place from the first week I numbered past the five spot on November 6, and settled into the Top Five as of November 20, and has not been out of that group since. In other words… before any critics group said “boo.” The point is not to tell you how clever I am, but to suggest that the critics helped confirm what was already in the air by November. Likewise, most everyone who saw House of Sand & Fog was taken with the performance of Shohreh Aghdashloo. And maybe she would have made it without getting nods from both New York and Los Angeles. But maybe not. (Btw, she also took her place in the Top 5 in her category on November 20.)

The anomaly of 2003 seems to be that the clear top three choices of the critics – Lost in Translation, Lord of the Rings: Return of the King and Mystic River – also seem destined to be three of the top five choices of The Academy. In a massive change of roles, the Academy Awards seem destined to strongly influence the Independent Spirit Awards, which offered up their nominations a breathtaking three months ahead of their awards event. If Lost in Translation gets a Best Picture nod and Bill and Sofia and Scarlett and Sofia again, all of which is looking pretty likely right now, look for American Splendor to be the ISA pick of the year.

I went into the PGA & DGA on Tuesday. But, again, Mystic River and Lord of the Rings both got double dips. The Japanese made low-budget Lost in Translation “only” got DGA, making Sofia just the fifth woman ever to get it. Master & Commander (#8 on the cumulative critics list) and Seabiscuit (#20) are the other two double dippers, but both are a long way from those top three.

The rather shocking answer remains… every group seems to be somewhat in agreement on the top three and pretty much in agreement about the next four or five.

The irony is that the fourth and fifth slots will provide, with the possible exception of Bill Murray, the only real excitement on Oscar night. Whose speech are you looking forward to, Sofia’s or Clint’s or Peter’s? Scarlet Johansson is lovely and talented, but I’ve already been through one of her acceptance speeches and… oy. Who will work harder to blend into the scenery, Sean Penn or Bill Murray?

Ben Kingsley, Charlize Theron, Johnny Depp, Diane Keaton, Benicio del Toro, Shohreh Aghdashloo and Melissa Leo… we need the spice in the Oscar stew. You want a great talker for director? Jim Sheridan. You want some fun with the screenplay race? John August will rock your perceptions. And don’t forget Nikki “I’m back in ninth grade” Reed. You want real drama? Bring Susan Tom and her family on stage to accept Best Documentary. Want to change the world? Give it to The Triplets of Belleville instead of the magnificent, but more traditional, Finding Nemo.

Watching Mystic, Translation and Rings on the awards circuit is like watching a game of too-cool volleyball. Rings wants to grovel, but they’re too busy counting money and no one can really decide on which actor to back all the way. Mystic wants to win, but they are playing it Eastwood cool. And Translation’s crew has been lost on the way to the brightly lit stage.

And have I mentioned… those last two slots… still up for grabs… let’s hope they’re fun.

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The Rankings: January 8, 2003

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20 Weeks To Oscar: Special Post DGA & PGA
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Eleven
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Ten
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Nine
20 Weeks To Oscar: Critics Week Special
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Seven
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Six
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Five
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Four
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Three
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Two
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week One
21 Weeks To Oscar
23 Weeks To Oscar
29 Weeks to Oscar

- by David Poland