..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Ray Pride
..Patricia Vidal

Week Nine
30 Days To The Close Of Nominations

I was talking to a friend this morning and remembered a time about 25 years ago when my father was looking for an investment and some guys came to him with the idea of a dog toilet. It was basically a fiberglass box with some slats that turned when the dog walked off the thing, the slats turned and some water jets cleaned the excretion away and flushed it to wherever.

My dog was the test subject for the investment. He wouldn't get on the thing. And these two grown men, trying to get money from my dad, wearing their suits in the Miami sun, sat in my backyard for weeks trying to get this dog to get into their contraption and take a dump. They chased him around the yard. They picked him up and put him on the slats… causing him to bolt as soon as he could. They moved his daring doo from the ground to the machine and tried to convince us that he had used the machine on his own.

Ah, the joy when he finally did try the thing out. And then, before he stepped off the slats, they started turning, he got stuck, his legs got cleaned, he barked a lot and the test was essentially over.

That's kind of how I felt watching the Golden Globe nominations this morning.

All this hullabaloo… grown professionals… important businesspeople… all trying to get this dog to take a dump in the "right" place.

Don't get me wrong. Congratulations to the nominees and all that.

Every year, people make fun of the "Musical/Comedy" nominees, as though even the HFPA would have given Billy Bob Thornton a nomination if they were limiting themselves to five. I'm kinda glad that there is a category for the Billy Bob performances in the year. It's a bit of a ghetto, but the comedy performances deserve recognition.

But who was the biggest winner at the Golden Globe nominations this year?

Peter Bart.

The only truly significant thing coming out of these nominations is something that was already becoming quite clear. Lost in Translation is probably going to be more than an Independent Spirit Award movie. But we knew that before today. Look at the Critics Awards Scoreboard and you'll find that Translation already has 33 critics awards and nominations in the bank, way ahead of the current runner-up, Mystic River, which has 18.

Beyond that, it's caviar wishes and champagne dreams to every studio in town 29 films represented in 63 film nominations. That includes expanded groups of six in the Best Actress Drama and both Supporting Actor and Actress categories. All that and still no room for 21 Grams or Paul Giamatti or Djimon Hounsou or Sean Astin or Shohreh Aghdashloo or Bill Nighy or Toni Collette or Eugene Levy or Frances McDormand or Tony Cox and on and on and on.

It feels like they were selling tables and filling them with every movie star they could find. And yet, Supporting Actress feels like an IFP ballot.

This conversation can be heard in hallways all over Hollywoodland today:

Person 1: Can you believe those nominations today?

Person 2: Really!

Person 1: Those *#($*&s at Miramax really pulled it out of the hat this time!

Person 2: Do you think Harvey actually wipes their asses, literally?

Person 1: Ha! Those foreigners can't make their mind up about anything.

Person 2: Except that they love Harvey, Tony Angelotti and Ronni Chasen!

Person 1: A joke. Seabiscuit! Two for Love Actually! Tony could sell saltpeter to Colin Farrell's penis!

Person 2: So true. Uma Thurman… my oh my!

Person 1: And those nominations we got…. really important!

Person 2: We're back in the race!!!

(They high five and go into a marketing meeting where another couple million will be thrown on the Oscar marketing fire.)

The question of the moment should be… does this matter at all?

Of course it matters. You'll never hear the end of it from the Miramax marketing machine, as they continue to attempt to position Cold Mountain as the only film that can challenge Lord of the Rings: Return of the King. (Or as one wise man/wise guy commented this morning, "Now you know why they needed the crisis manager!")

But what everyone seems to forget as they raise the Globes flag high… this is the one and only time we will hear from the Globes people until a week after the Oscar nominations are locked in. That's a whole month from now.

Will these nominations get Oscar voters who haven't cracked the seal on their DVD collection from Lions Gate to go to it? Yes… most likely.

Will it continue the growing perception that Lost In Translation is worthy of serious consideration? And will it allow Bill Murray to remain elusive and still get Oscar nominated? Definitely and probably.

Will Finding Nemo launch the Best Picture campaign Pixar always dreamed of and secure their relationship with Oscar glory? Uh… focus on beating Triplets of Belleville… that's no lock, kids.

The Globes could have had an impact today. I guess they could have killed off Cold Mountain… but that was never in the cards. They could have had a real positive effect on a few films that were wavering. But in the end, the top four nomination-getters this morning are likely to be four of the Best Picture Oscar films… same as they were before this morning.

And then, there are the runners-up. Big Fish, Master & Commander, The Last Samurai all remain hopelessly and hopefully in the hunt. Of the seven films that are duel Globes nominees, I would still contend that In America is the only one with a shot at Best Picture in the big show. And in the single nominee group - 16 films in all - House of Sand & Fog remains the only film with an outside shot. In other words… the same nine pictures on my predictions list before these nominations were announced.

It's not vanity. It's just what we've all known for a long time. Lost in Translation probably should have moved up from 9 when I did the list last night, but I was being stubborn - and now I accept.

The battle over the next 30 days will be for Focus to get some traction on their actors in 21 Grams again. The truth is, they probably peaked a little too early with the media. New Line has to get a handle on just what one or two acting nominations they feel they can push, push, push and grab at least one now-surprise nomination. (Sean Astin deserves an award for working every morning show today, even after he didn't get a Globes nomination.) Warner Bros. has to pull a Regan McNeil and spin their heads, trying to pull Last Samurai out of the awards toilet using Ken Watanabe as bait to get Tom Cruise back in the game. Searchlight needs to take a deep breath and get ready to unleash hell if In America is going to make it. And Fox needs new daddies Russell Crowe and Paul Bettany to come to town early and often to give an emotional face to Master & Commander.

The Golden Globes? They have made themselves more irrelevant more quickly than I ever could have imagined. But it'll be a fun party. And Peter Bart will be sure to wear a gold tuxedo, as the HFPA has given him the ultimate Christmas present.

Ho Ho Ho!

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The Rankings: Post Globes
The Rankings: Pre Globes

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20 Weeks To Oscar: Critics Week Special
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Seven
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Six
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Five
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Four
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Three
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Two
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week One
21 Weeks To Oscar
23 Weeks To Oscar
29 Weeks to Oscar

- by David Poland