..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Ray Pride
..Patricia Vidal

WEEK EIGHT

I’m doing the column a day early this week because time is running out…

The campaigns that are going to fall short are coming into sharp perspective.

Last year. the Golden Globes actually gave out their awards – the winners – 11 days before the Academy balloting closed. This year, balloting closes 8 days before the Golden Globes ceremony. It is possible that there will some perceived significance to the winners of the Golden Globes this year, but I gotta tell you, once those Oscar nominees are set, the voters will get themselves to those movies and come up with their own conclusions.

Even last year’s Golden Globes winners only matched the Oscars in five of the top 12 film categories. The percentage jumps to 56% after giving the Globes credit for the three double categories (drama/comedy). Two of the winners in those categories didn’t even get Oscar nominations.

I was surprised to look back at my predictions from last year from 12 weeks out, much as we are this week… I averaged one missed nomination per major category, except Adapted Screenplay, where I was a complete mess… this far out. This is not about boasting, but about pointing out that things settled in pretty early last year. And while there is more room for flexibility in this year’s race, things should start settling out in earnest by next Thursday… eleven weeks out, the predicting community will probably have about 80% accuracy again.

Not everyone can be nominated. And many deserving films and personal efforts go unawarded every year.

There is another group of non-nominees who live within inches of deserved nominations, but just don’t get there. Last year, it was movies like Antwone Fisher, a Best Picture nod for multiple nominee Adaptation, various nominees that never happened from Far From Heaven, etc.

Like I said, not everyone can get in. And some small variation in strategy might not have done the trick. Far From Heaven may have had its fate sealed by its Independent Spirit Awards nominations. But no one would really prefer not to be so honored, would they?

NEAR PERFECT CANDIDATES DANGLING IN OSCAR PURGATORY RIGHT NOW ARE:

Johnny Depp – If there is a single performance this year that will be remembered lovingly by the most people, it is Depp’s turn as Captain Jack Sparrow. Highbrows and lowbrows alike agreed that he was the best thing to happen at the movies all summer long. Yet, it doesn’t look good at this point for an Oscar nomination. And if Disney is waiting for a Comedy Actor nomination from the Golden Globes, that’s all well and good, but even if he wins, Oscar nominations will have long since closed. I have a bad feeling that it is already too late for Depp. But with the DVD on the street and setting sales records, one hard shove could do the job. Of course, Depp has to agree to be a part of that effort.

Holly Hunter – A special performance by an Oscar-beloved actress. Fox Searchlight’s enthusiasm for Thirteen and Hunter has been a little lukewarm for a while now, so no one can suggest that some revenge for Peter Levy-Hite’s abuse of his friendship with Peter Rice is in play. Thirteen, which was pushed hard before release, never quite caught on as a phenomenon, as was expected. It made some big city op-eds, but the issues in the film never quite shocked Middle America into playing along. Now, Holly Hunter, who is not a big campaigner, is on the outside looking in as new Oscar players like Melissa Leo and Shohreh Aghdashloo get a lot more attention.

William H. Macy – He was the best thing in Seabiscuit, enjoyed even by those of us who felt like we had spent 2 hours-plus in a glue factory while watching the movie. But was it enough to get him where he is going? And is Universal’s focus on Seabiscuit spread too thin between its three lead actors to really make the push for Bill Macy? Right now, it looks like Best Supporting Actor will be dominated by three performances that could have qualified as leads, in 21 Grams, Big Fish and Mystic River. But there is still room for Macy… if his candidacy finds a voice after months of quiet.

Bill Murray – If Johnny Depp was seen and loved by the most people, Bill Murray was loved the most deeply by the people who saw his work. A classic Oscar performance, a movie star breaking with his history a little, humor, drama and even a slightly off-key bit of romance. By all rights, Best Actor should be a battle between Murray and Sean Penn in Mystic River. But Murray has been rather low key so far and while a bunch of critics awards seem inevitable, a guy who has said he doesn’t care about Oscars in the past needs to signal the Academy that he wants to be in the club this year… something Sean Penn has subtly been doing for months. Come on, Bill… lip those Oscars.

Bill Nighy – One of the great characters in character acting today. Heck, he almost made Underworld tolerable as he shook off decades of death as the king of the vampires under pounds of make-up. In Love Actually, he is priceless. Every move he makes gets the audience rolling like no one else in the film. But Bill’s been on stage in London lately and not here in L.A. winning over converts. This guy is a gem and we all should be hearing “Christmas’ All Around” on the radio here, just like they are as it rolls up the chart in England.

Charlize Theron – Ms. Theron’s performance in Monster is this year’s unstoppable Oscar winner. It’s over. The one true lock. And yet, she is being threatened right now by missing the nominations completely. It’s real simple… not enough people have seen the movie. Screeners should have been out to everyone weeks ago, before Thanksgiving. After all, Newmarket is not an MPAA signatory or dependent. And with due respect to the writer/director of the movie, this is one of those films that voters may not watch all the way through at home… but 10 minutes of Theron’s work here will put her on the top of the list for a major percentage of voters in any awards group. All she needs is BFCA or LAFCA or NYFCC or NSFC on top of an HFPA nomination and he meaningless NBR win to get over the top. But these groups have had a hard time getting to see her work. She’ll probably be there. But the movie needs to be seen… now.

Big Fish – A wonderful movie that is really the pinnacle of Tim Burton’s career, mixing the text/subtext of The Wizard of Oz with the emotional weight of an Ordinary People. But somehow, it is getting to the station a little too late. Not everyone loves this film as I do. But even those of use who do don’t find it pushed to the front of our minds all the time. I’m not quite sure how Sony can fix the problem, but the clock is ticking. And Albert Finney really deserves an Oscar for his work here…

The Cooler – Lion’s Gate has worked this film like Miramax on speed. I mean, they have spent a full year fighting the good fight. But in the end, Bill Macy’s sex habits just aren’t going to end up in the Kodak Theater. Alec Baldwin got a little traction with the National Board of Review, but Baldwin’s big lug over Finney or Del Toro or Robbins? Really?

Dirty Pretty Things – A great movie that got a little lost in the summer and never re-emerged as the powerful social-commentary inside-a-thriller that it is. It certainly should be a serious Original Screenplay candidate, but someone has to remind someone of just how brilliant it is.

House of Sand & Fog – It’s a tough movie and looking more and more like this year’s Oscar answer to Adaptation… two or three acting nominations and no Best Picture or Best Director. DreamWorks has been hard to read on this one. The thing is, they have to know that even if they got a nomination, they can’t win with this film. So their enthusiasm seems to shift like the sand and float like the fog… sometimes it’s thick… sometimes it’s wet… and sometimes they make pretty castles with it and start selling Win A Date With Tad Hamilton, where the real money is at.

In America – My personal beloved, I believe that if the film is nominated, it is the only title that can actually threaten Lord of the Rings. However, Searchlight has to keep pushing that ball up the mountain. It’s hard work. And they’ve been at it for a while. If it gets nominated, it’s all downhill from there. The movie will do all the work for them that can be done. I’m already wondering whether alphabetizing means that In America gets put with the “A”s or the “I”s… in other words, if it isn’t announced first, can it still be alive after they say “Cold Mountain.” My blood pressure will depend on getting an answer for that before January 27.

ALREADY IN HELL

Frances McDormand – McDormand’s sterling work in Something’s Gotta Give is just the lift she needs to get some real heat going around her show-stopping turn in Laurel Canyon. Just one problem… Sony Classics seems to have forgotten that Laurel Canyon was on their schedule this year. I mean, nothing.. zip…crickets!

City of God – The great film of last year’s foreign language race is now lost at sea between people who think of it as a 2002 title and those who see it as a 2003 title. The film should have been Oscar qualified (non-foreign) last year and it would have been on so many critics lists that it may well have been a serious candidate in a number of categories. Instead, it feels like a ghost of its self.

Whale Rider – Newmarket may have shipped DVDs to the Academy before last week, but critics groups waited until last week to have the opportunity to reflect on a film that many, many people adored. I don’t know what happened. Maybe the money dried up. But whatever chance Niki Caro, Keisha Castle-Hughes and this film had just a few months ago is now gone with the whales.

I can only say, “sorry” to anyone whose toes feel stepped on by these assessments, but the fact that your film was mentioned is a compliment. It means that not only do you have something of quality to sell, but also that you have something that Oscar voters should be drawn to in large numbers. As I wrote earlier, not everyone can get there and the Oscars are not the defining arbiter of quality, but a race amongst a very specific group of industry insiders. But you know you want it… and it’s within your reach. Try a bigger ladder.

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The Rankings

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20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Seven
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Six
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Five
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Four
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Three
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Two
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week One
21 Weeks To Oscar
23 Weeks To Oscar
29 Weeks to Oscar

- by David Poland