..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Ray Pride
..Patricia Vidal

WEEK FOUR

It seemed like last week, everyone who was going to speak up about early Oscar guessing decided it was the week. Unfortunately, too many of these predictions were taken too seriously, as there are still four major steps before we can really get down to clear predictions… which in a year like this is more important than usual.

1. See The Movies – There was a reason why no one seemed to see past Seabiscuit and Finding Nemo in the summer Oscar advance pieces. And now, there is a reason why you keep hearing Mystic River and Master & Commander. Not enough people have really seen the rest of the relevant movies to get a buzz going on them. So you get your Lord of The Rings and your Cold Mountain and stuff that’s already taken a beachhead. This is not to say that M&C and Mystic will not be there in the end. Just that the prognosticators are working in some degree of blindness.

2. Have Others Start To See The Movies In Larger Numbers – We don’t have to wait, as most critics will do, until December 26 to know where House of Sand & Fog sits. But there do need to be some Academy and guild screenings. The list of movies that are backed by majors and are actually quite good is formidable this year. We are all making a lot of assumptions about how these movies are going to be received. And below, I will go over the smaller movies and lay out their pros & cons. (That feels likes something someone else has done, but what the heck!) We won’t honestly know where a movie like The Missing stands until it starts to play in theaters. People often discount the financial results for films as insignificant in this game. But it’s not. Films can be too successful and not successful enough. That number tends to shift a lot. It is a balancing act. And there will be a good film or two that gets branded as “a commercial movie,” which is code for “not an Oscar movie.”

3. The Critics Speak - L.A. and Chicago will clam up, but National Board of Review, the New York Film Critics Circle, BFCA, HFPA and NSFC will all speak, amongst many others. It is unknown how things will be for the Golden Globes people (HFPA) this year, since they will not give out their awards until after Oscar nominations have gone in and the question of how influential their nominations will be in defining the playing field is unanswered. Meanwhile, BFCA has its ceremony before Oscar nominations for the very first time, setting the organization up to influence the Oscar nominations. Interestingly, how the nominees and winners behave on live TV may mean more than wins and losses. But the January 10 show date is actually weeks after the “prediction solidification date” I am focused on in the column today.

4. The Great Settling – Coined by one boy genius long ago, The Great Settling describes the period when the media battle quiets down and Oscar voters start to see films at their own pace, discussing their feelings among themselves and getting a handle – taa dah! – on which screeners they have to watch. Normally, this takes place in mid-January. But I suspect that there will be two settlings this year. One in December and another in late January, early February.

Be clear. There are no more surprises coming. By Monday, there will be exactly two seriously contending films that are still being held back, Lord of the Rings and Cold Mountain. Truth be told, it seems that Miramax, ever the clever ones, have decided late in the game to be tighter with Cold Mountain access than originally planned, perhaps realizing that they were being held as one of the Oscar nomination locks in every story while showing the thing to almost no one.

I have 10 films on my list that are fighting for their Best Picture life. There is only one in the group that I haven’t seen. In fact, it is the only one I haven’t seen at least twice.

I’m breaking the 10 into two groups. One is for bigger movies and one is for the real underdogs.

BIGGER

The Last Samurai – The unseen film. Rumors aplenty, but the play is the thing. Historically, Ed Zwick films have come up short. But who knows?

Master & Commander – Lots of prognosticators are putting this film into the “lock” category. We’ll see. It is an excellent film and it is loaded with things we’ve never seen on a big screen. But it’s going to have to do at least $75 million at the box office and there is the question of how emotional a film it is in a year of emotional films in the underdog slot.

The Missing – I think this film is really special. It is a John Ford movie and a great personal drama all in one. But it needs to find that voice with awards voters. The Great Cate is going to get there. But Revolution and Columbia have a lot of work to do to get voters to see this as a classic western.

Seabiscuit – The Biscuit passed the financial test of the summer. It certainly does have a core in the youth-challenged segment that makes up a majority of the Academy. But will they remember the film fondly enough, when faced with some significantly better films?

UNDERDOGS

21 Grams – A powerful film from a highly respected new director, but is it too dark for Academy voters? Probably. That said, the Sean Penn-Benicio del Toro-Naomi Watts-Melissa Leo acting group may power the film up with the biggest group of Oscar voters, the acting branch.

Big Fish – The maturity of Tim Burton is undeniable. The third act of the film is one of the most powerful of the year. The danger is people seeing it as “A Tim Burton Movie.” It is something else all together. It is a movie about the love of family, about the vision we have of our loved ones and about the vision we have of ourselves. There is no one who can’t relate to that. Comparisons to Edward Scissorhands are specious. That was a fairy tale. This is not.

House of Sand & Fog – A brilliant directorial debut… but a debut nonetheless. Vadim Perelman has no equity built up. Ben Kingsley will be nominated. Jennifer Connelly may be. Shohreh Aghdashloo should be. But with a story this dark, it may well be the unfunny Adaptation of this year’s race, scoring some acting nods, but not Best Picture.

In America – I have made no bones about it. I adore this film. There is no more powerful story about love and family and redemption in this year’s race. But the actors are little known, they have accents and Fox Searchlight has to keep the steady stream of viewers heading to the theaters to see the movie.

Lost In Translation – The first “complicated” film out of the gate. It seemed unstoppable coming out of Toronto, but then Mystic River became the flavor of the week. (Master & Commander is the flavah right now.) Bill Murray seems obvious, but he’s going to have to show up to kiss some tuchus. And then, the Academy is going to have to act on its desperation to find a comedy to nominate. The lighter parts of Big Fish could fill that void. But we’ll see.

Mystic River – It’s hot right now and Clint Eastwood is Clint Eastwood. But can this small artistic effort hold on? The “I’m not so sure about the ending” talk has already begun. And the first four films on this list still haven’t really been exposed to a wide, wide range of voters.

When looking at these two groups, the three remaining slots - assuming Rings and Mountain will be in - could go virtually any way. One of the underdogs is pretty much assured of getting in. But two would not be a surprise and three is not a completely insane idea. Of course, three of the bigger films could make it too. The reason I would bet on the smaller films is that Rings and Mountain represent two huge films. So do Academy voters need another epic and will they go for more emotional films to change the pace?

The most amazing thing about this year is that, for me, only one film would disappoint me were it to be nominated. The movies are really good this year.

The last time I felt this strongly about as many as four Best Picture nominees was a decade ago, when Schindler’s List, The Fugitive, In The Name of The Father, The Piano and Remains of the Day made the cut. One big studio movie, one big art film and three little movies. Let’s say that Rings is the big studio movie, Cold Mountain is the big art film… and then… hmmm…

______

The Rankings

______

20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Three
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Two
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week One
21 Weeks To Oscar
23 Weeks To Oscar
29 Weeks to Oscar

- by David Poland