..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Ray Pride
..Patricia Vidal

WEEK TWO

It's amazing what can happen in just one week without any screeners at all…

It's been one of those weeks where you realize just how "inside baseball" we can get and just how stupid we look. People keep referring to the screener ban as a publicity blunder. No one outside of the industry could give a damn about screeners. And, indeed, the industry pressure came most squarely from the only organization that actually has as many power players as the MPAA, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. They wanted their screeners. And if you think it was to support indie film, you are a jolly joker indeed.

In addition, the anti-screener-ban forces made the strategic error of emphasizing the alleged damage that would come of "indie" films having less of a chance at the benefits of Oscar nominations. And that's how the Academy got their screeners and the rest of us got bupkiss. Very few people outside of the 20,000 or so of us who got screeners each year cared about the screener ban. And now, absolutely no one has a shred of sympathy for the critics groups going without or the Academy members who are complaining about having to sign an agreement to protect their privilege.

(If you haven't read Armond White's exceptionally sharp look at the internal fight over screeners in New York, please do. I must say, reading this, it's hard to figure out who is angrier - Armond White stuck being Armond White at the NY Press, or Elvis Mitchell, who is stuck doing Armond White Lite at the NY Times.)

It's all over but the whining. And in all the hullabaloo, everyone forgot one little thing… the movies.

In just the last week… The Alamo has been overrun by 2004. In America got an overwhelming response from the junketing press last weekend and has increased its awards profile significantly. Master & Commander: The Far Side of The World was also well received by the media, though some questions about its Oscar viability came up. The rumor mill worked overtime, despite very limited evidence, covering The Last Samurai and Cold Mountain in all forms of slander. Sean Penn's people decided that he would run for Best Actor in both 21 Grams and Mystic River, possibly knocking him out of contention completely, even though both of his performances merit award nominations. And, as the screener wars settled down, the movement for early season movies like Whale Rider and Seabiscuit seems to have returned to their pre-screen ban levels.

The complexion of Oscars 2004 has changed, not because of screeners, but because of the quality and emotional depth of the films. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King remains the one true mortal lock of the season. People are so tired of being proven wrong by Miramax's Oscar savvy that as they start to mount a case against Cold Mountain, you can see the energy going out of them like withering balloon.

That leaves three slots. The only two films other than these two presumed nominees that have not been widely seen are Big Fish and The Last Samurai. The only "big" movies that have been seen and are still standing are Master & Commander and Seabiscuit. I expect Master & Commander to be better remembered than Seabiscuit, but I don't really believe in either as Oscar films. Not when there are so many high quality, high emotion dramas in the marketplace.

My bet is that either Big Fish or Last Samurai will make the grade. Neither making it is more likely then both of them making it. But that means that two or three of the following five should be there:

House Of Sand & Fog
In America
Lost In Translation
The Missing
Mystic River

You may have noticed that the five are in alphabetical order. That's because, even though I will quantify them on this week's charts, the distance between these five films is nearly impossible to read right now. Lost In Translation had the heat coming out of Toronto, but Mystic River sent many critics over the moon after the New York Film Festival. The other three films are all still weeks - months, in the case of Sand & Fog - from release. Fox Searchlight is pushing hard for In America. DreamWorks would like nothing better than to sneak up behind Cold Mountain and to garrote their Oscar chances. And The Missing has a lot of Oscar pedigree and both the benefit and distraction of dipping a western genre film into a vat of drama.

I could make a case for or against every one of these films and there really wouldn't be any wrong or right answer. I will get at least two phone calls today explaining otherwise. But that's how it goes.

In the next few weeks, Big Fish and The Last Samurai will be widely seen and that will be the next big moment of definition. Then the critics' awards start. And when LAFCA gives the final push to one of the deserving… oh… uh… nevermind.

GOLDEN GLOBES: It seems that as long as we are talking about the big show, we might as well lay out the little show now too. I expect that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will pick their 5 dramas from among my top 14. But then there is the Comedy/Musical category, which will keep hope alive - the living dead - for a few titles.

My current guess at the HFPA 5 in that category:

Calendar Girls
Finding Nemo
Love Actually
School of Rock
Something's Gotta Give

Also in play will be Bend It Like Beckham, Bruce Almighty and Pirates of the Caribbean. And the movie that could most benefit from one of those freakazoid HFPA category placement decisions is Lost In Translation, which is funny enough to be put in the comedy category, but would probably object to the designation.

But the most interesting thing about this is that there is no musical. The closest thing to a studio musical this year is Paramount Classics' The Singing Detective, which I suspect is an unlikely nominee. In spite of the success of Chicago last year, there remains a good chance that there will not be an awards candidate that can legitimately be called a musical even next year, as none of the various musicals on the boards have a start date yet. It's possible that someone will get something going by March, but it doesn't look like it.

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The Rankings

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20 Weeks To Oscar: Week One
21 Weeks To Oscar
23 Weeks To Oscar
29 Weeks to Oscar

- by David Poland