..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Ray Pride
..Patricia Vidal

No Virginia, there is no Toronto wave…

Twelve of the films in Toronto this year were arriving with some real Oscar race aspirations this year. The words "American Beauty" were passed about in hushed tones. But what we learned about these films was that pretty much every one was D.Q.ed in the first round.

The class of the lot - 21 Grams, Lost In Translation, Matchstick Men and Veronica Guerin - were well received and warmly reviewed. But each faced limitations. 21 Grams is a strong picture, but is very, very harsh and will clearly have trouble with the somewhat squeamish Academy membership. Lost In Translation was practically deified, but seems to be a bit too intimate to break through the pack in a year heavily dominated by studio supported titles. Matchstick Men has turned into a box office success ($25 million so far), but may be too early and again, too intimate, to get a lot of Oscar attention. And Veronica Guerin is well made and well acted, but the only person with a shot at Oscar traction is Cate Blanchett.

Faring significantly worse after some festive festival exposure were Girl With The Pearl Earring, The Human Stain, In The Cut and Wonderland. As a rule, reactions ranged from middling to negative on these pictures. Of course, each of them has its supporters. Girl With The Pearl Earring, in particular, won the "It looks good" award in the potential category, out "attractived" only by Spring, Summer, Winter, Fall … & Spring. But any hope that these titles had to find their way to bigger and better things were dashed.

Somewhere in the middle were four films - Dogville, Love Actually, Shattered Glass, The Station Agent - that got a nice reaction, but simply don't have the right stuff for Oscar.

OTHER SHIFTS: Columbia has shifted their Nov/Dec schedule around to give themselves a little more space for their long list of contending films. The commercial flick Radio moves to December, leaving a slot for Ron Howard's The Missing - a commercial movie with some real Oscar possibilities - to debut in limited release in November. Tim Burton's Big Fish, considered by most to be the central Oscar prospect for the studio, go limited on December 10, with Nancy Meyer's Something's Gotta Give going wide in search go mondo dollars on the 12th. Just a weekend later, Mike Newell's Mona Lisa Smile arrives with Julia Roberts and trio of young hard chargers - Kirsten Dunst, Maggie Gyllenhaal and Julia Stiles.

Disney's Calendar Girls and The Alamo remain on the 19th and 25th, respectively. I don't know about the rest of the industry, but Disney has convinced me that The Alamo is more than many are expecting. There is some footage on the web, but the kicker for me is that they are focused on the story of regular folks defending their territory until the end.

SCREENERS: The great debate of 2003 has begin. Much like the controversy over the Academy's shift to an earlier awards date, the potential end to Academy screeners has split the community.

Almost every discussion begins with the reminder that Miramax really created the screener habit a decade or so ago. But the reason was to get attention for their small films that just were not being seen. That use of screeners is still significant, very critical, I would say, to the success of The Pianist last year, for example.

A year that has a shorter season for the first time, combined with a heavy major studio awards slate for the first time in years, combined with no screeners, means that movies like 21 Grams are going to be right up against it.

And if this rule sticks, the marketing of Oscar films will once again shift, with a summer release becoming more of a priority as videos will actually be in regular release come the holidays.

YEAR OF THE ENSEMBLE: There are an unusual number of films this year that are facing choices about how to position their actors for awards consideration. I'm not talking about whether Scarlett Johansson should be pushed as a Supporting Actress. I think that's a pretty obvious "no."

I'm talking about Lord of the Ring: Return of the King, Seabiscuit, Big Fish, The Alamo, Mystic River, Love Actually, 21 Grams, Cold Mountain & Calendar Girls. Which of the three Seabiscuit leads is a lead and which one(s) is a supporting performance? Is Albert Finney the lead of Big Fish or is his younger self, played by Ewan McGregor? Is Naomi Watts a lead in 21 Grams? Is anyone a lead in Love Actually?

THE ODD THING: Six weeks after the first Oscar preview column, not a lot in the top group of potential nominees seems to have changed. Part of that is that we still have not seen a majority of the contenders. But some of the question marks are beginning to suggest that some openings may be turning back up. For instance, Seabiscuit is looking better with 21 Grams looking like a non-Oscar-starter, while historically based films like The Alamo, Cold Mountain, The Missing and The Last Samurai seeming to be covering similar demographic ground.

Single-title studio contenders like Miramax (Cold Mountain), Fox (Master & Commander), Fox Searchlight (In America) and New Line (LOTR:ROTK) can see their fates change in a single screening. While no one will entertain the idea that Miramax will not find a way to make Cold Mountain happen as an Oscar movie. On the other hand, suspicions will dog Master & Commander until people have facts to work with (like a screening) instead of unfounded rumor. All four of these films could get in… or as few as one. But the three of these pictures from majors own "immovable object" status until proven guilty.

Here are the Charts

- by David Poland