..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Ray Pride
..Patricia Vidal

And so it begins…

The more things change, the more they stay the same. A date change. "New" rules. Yadda yadda yadda.

Looking at the line-up of product, I see the same old jam up - though this year it starts in earnest on November 14 with the release of Fox's Master & Commander and Focus' 21 Grams and continues apace for the next seven weeks as nine more serious contenders arrive and get graded and degraded. The only films that I consider to be contenders for a Best Picture nomination that aren't opening in this seven-week period are Finding Nemo and Seabiscuit… but not really.

What is different this year is that there seem to be very few surprises on the horizon. Cannes offered up a grand total of nothing in terms of American product that is in Oscar range. Toronto will be a launch pad again, but seems unlikely to launch any surprise contenders this year. Focus won't be sneaking up on anyone. And Miramax has really come down to one title… though I think they may have a second one up their sleeve.

I guess I should start with the quality titles (or presumed quality titles) that I do not believe will make a Best Picture ripple. Some are going to launch serious contenders in other categories. But these are really the Independent Spirit Award Best Picture contenders:

American Splendor
Casa de Los Babys
The Company
Elephant
The Human Stain
In The Cut
Lost In Translation
Pieces of April
The Singing Detective
The Station Agent
Sylvia
Thirteen
Wonderland

And here are the three foreign-made films that will stir Academy buzz:

Dirty Pretty Things
The Magdalene Sisters
Swimming Pool

There are eight major studio movies that I expect to get a lot of buzz - potentially even some major nominations - but to fall short of serious Best Picture contention. They are:

House of Sand & Fog - The Mystery Movie
Intolerable Cruelty - Coen Bros For Screenplay
Matchstick Men - Nicholas Griffin and Ted Griffin For Screenplay
Untitled Nancy Meyers Project - Jack Nicholson
Pirates of the Caribbean - Johnny Depp
Under The Tuscan Sun - Diane Lane
Veronica Guerin - Cate Blanchett
Calendar Girls - Helen Mirren, Julie Walters

You may be getting the sense of the spread between studios this year already. That's another thing that looks to make this year different than recent years. With the exception of MGM and Paramount, I expect every other studio and major mini-major to be in the game.

Another distinguishing factor this year is that so many major movie stars will be in play for real, not just as pipe dreams. Tom Cruise, Julia Roberts, Russell Crowe, Jack Nicholson, Bill Murray, Nicole Kidman, Tommy Lee Jones, Sean Penn and Albert Finney are just a part of the group. There are also the relative newcomers, like Benicio del Toro, Jude Law, Cate Blanchett, Renee Zellweger, Ewan McGregor, Samantha Morton, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Viggo Mortensen, Julia Stiles, Kirsten Dunst and Maggie Gyllenhaal in play. And there are the veterans - Ben Kingsley, Helen Mirren, Diane Keaton, Gwyneth Paltrow, Meg Ryan, Kevin Bacon, Helena Bonham Carter, Holly Hunter and Jessica Lange.

It's a formidable cluster. And almost any one of them could make a sudden leap into the heat of the game. You will not see a better performance by an actress this year than Holly Hunter's in Thirteen. But will it be there in the end? And how do you compare a raw, naturalistic performance like that to, say, Julia Roberts in a "classic old Hollywood" performance like the one she seems to have delivered in Mona Lisa Smile?

The Miramax potential pocket film I referred to is An Unfinished Life, which has been quietly moved into 2004 and which could suddenly turn up with Jennifer Lopez, Robert Redford and Miramax favorite Lasse Hallstrom at the helm. August reports have the film gearing up for an Oscar run next year. I am willing to believe that Miramax might sit on a film for that long. But production wrapped in June and five months of post for a simple drama doesn't seem terribly rushed. Then again… maybe not.

And now, The Best Picture List.

There are nine different studios represented among my 13 major contenders for this year's Best Picture race. The biggest surprise when putting the list together was one studio with three titles… two of which did not set a date until recent weeks.

I have come to believe that Oscar contenders create their place by becoming iconic. Just as Gladiator represented the "Classic Hollywood Epic," Chicago was "Most Liked" and A Beautiful Mind was "The Right Thing."

Last year, there was no "Heart" film. It simply never showed up. This year, we're gagging on them. This is challenging for me, as one of my most beloved films of any year, In America, may not make the final cut because it simply faces too many other heart tuggers in competition. After all, 21 Grams is the weight of the human soul, Love actually makes people crazy, a big tale of a Big Fish might take us all home and that Mona Lisa Smile can sure warm you up in a cold winter.

Okay... enough teasing…

THE LOCKS

1. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - NL
2. Master & Commander - Fox
3. 21 Grams - Focus

Return of the King is not even a rhetorical question. Last year, New Line barely campaigned for the second Rings film and it got nominated for Best Picture. The most asked question of this year's Oscar race is already, "Is it a lock to win best Picture?"

Fox is hardcore about Master & Commander and I will give them the benefit of the doubt here. There were some successful test screenings back east. It has been seen internally at Fox and the support is strong. Plus, it's Peter Weir… who is at his best when navigating deep emotion.

I'm locking in 21 Grams sight unseen and when I come back from Toronto and do the next Oscar column (24 Weeks To Oscar), it will either be cemented in or kicked to the curb. I have a lot of faith in Inarritu and this has the feel of an Academy corrective… where the maker of an overlooked film (Amores Perros) that was just too distant comes back and throws one that Academy members can really connect with. We'll see.

THE CATEGORY BATTLES

Here is where I see the slotting sensibility really coming into play. I see two slots for five possible films in two different categories.

4. The Missing vs. Cold Mountain - Ron Howard and Anthony Minghella both head to the mountains. I can't imagine both of them coming out. (The Alamo has already fallen from the list of likelies for most people.) But one surely will. Cold Mountain is set at the end of the American Civil War, around 1865, and The Missing is set in 1886. Miramax has a whole lot riding on their film, while Ron Howard's got the lower key approach, which may well serve him very well in this year of reflected tension from last Oscar season.

5. Love Actually vs Mona Lisa Smile vs Big Fish - The battle of lovely, gentle movies that could "just" be hits or could be nominees. All three titles seem to share the gift of pedigree. Love Actually is the directorial debut of screenwriter Richard Curtis, whose Four Weddings & A Funeral shocked many by being nominated for Best Picture in 1994. Ironically, the director of Four Weddings, Mike Newell, is behind the camera for Mona Lisa Smile, which also has the Goodbye, Mr. Chips/Dead Poets Society thing going for it. And Big Fish is clearly its own unique animal, directed by Tim Burton, but as warm and lovely as a good story well told by a loved one. If 21 Grams falters, there could be two nominees from this group or even my beloved In America, which is a great tale of love for America at a time when we aren't feeling loved by the world.

THE OTHERS

Finding Nemo - Disney
In America - Searchlight
The Last Samurai - WB
Mystic River - WB
Seabiscuit - U

It would be disingenuous to just throw Seabiscuit and Finding Nemo out of the Best Picture race now. But unless seven other pictures fail to be good enough to find two or three slots, it ain't gonna happen. Finding Nemo will surely be nominated for Best Picture by The Broadcast Film Critics and will no doubt take a slot in the comedy category at the Golden Globes. It deserves every accolade it gets. But in the end, it is a fish in a tank. Sorry. And the horse is lame. Road To Horsey Perdition.

The Warner Bros. duo of The Last Samurai and Mystic River should both be taken very seriously. Samurai seems to offer Cruise the chance to give one of his patented performances with the added benefit of historical awards legitimacy. On the other hand, Ed Zwick has been an award bridesmaid after many expectations that he would be a full-fledged bride. Eastwood's Mystic River boasts a parade of great talent and a great source book.

In America is as emotional a movie as I have seen in years. The question remains, how many movies will The Academy fall in love with? I pray for In America. But I can't say that it is one of the surer bets on board.

I'll leave the rest to The Rankings charts. Remember, the lists are still warm Jello being put in the refrigerator for the first time. There is certainly more room to wiggle in the various categories other than Best Picture. And at this time of the year… well…. I always know that I'm missing something.

Regardless… it's time to get in the gate…

- by David Poland