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Week 15:
Ten Lessons of Summer 2003

As it turns out, summer really needs 17 weeks to play out.  On the other hand, it seems that 15 weeks will actually fill the bill, in terms of real summer stories.   

With due respect to some of the long delayed crappy studio product (Marci X and My Boss’ Daughter), the second tier studio hopefuls (The Medallion and The Battle of Shaker Heights), one of the most powerful indie films you will see this year (Thirteen), and a few other quality indie titles (Stoked, Dust, Civil Brand), summer is really over with Freaky Friday, S.W.A.T. and Le Divorce next weekend. 

I will do a set of wrap-up charts around Labor Day, just to finalize the numbers.  (They won’t really be final… but we’ll know.)  On November 20, 15 Weeks To Oscar will begin its second season.  Before that, there will be three 15 Weeks to Oscar previews; next week, late September and late October. 

And thanks to the popularity of the Buzz Chart in 15 Weeks of Summer, I’ll be doing a weekly Buzz Chart every Thursday that will go beyond the movies of the moment and attempt to lay out the Wide, Wide World of Buzz.  Wish me luck.

Now that we’re done with the housekeeping…

There has been a huge disconnect this summer.  It’s the kind of thing few journalists will write about but that will surely affect the industry in ways that are not so obvious at first.  This summer was hugely, unusually loaded with success.  The first six weeks looks a lot better than the second six weeks.  But at least half of the $100 million grossing movies this summer have been held up for ridicule and abuse as “failures” by the media.  And amazingly, these are not the films that are going to bleed red ink. 

I certainly do not have all the answers. But I have a lot of the questions.  Here are my TEN LESSONS OF SUMMER 2003:

BUDGETS COUNT – Five of the twelve films that will gross more than $100 million domestic this summer cost over $100 million to produce.  The first thing you realize is that six of them cost under $100 million.  Those are the six you want. 

The others are a tough group in terms of teaching a lesson.  Three of the five $200 million movies cost over $100 million (Matrix Reloaded, X2, Pirates of the Caribbean), so that would seem to encourage the go-for-broke mentality… especially when you consider that the two films that were cheaper had major franchises behind them – Pixar/Disney and Jim Carrey/Tom Shadyac. 

The middle group, seven films that made between $100 million and $200 million, had three over $100 million in budget and four under.  And indeed, the three most expensive films (T3, The Hulk and Bad Boys II) will be on the higher end of the chart, but none is likely to break the $165 million mark.  So, are those gambles as good?  The most profitable film in the group will likely be Spy Kids 3D, followed by Daddy Day Care and The Italian Job. 

The bottom line is that there were nine movies that cost more than $100 million to produce this summer.  Only the three that broke $200 million will gross more in domestic theatrical than the cost of production and P&A.  And even those three will not be in profit based on domestic theatrical alone.  As you all must know, breaking even based on domestic theatrical rentals is no longer a necessity or even an expectation for studios. 

But there seems to be a simple lesson that can be learned here.  Even among the most successful dozen films, only three will be in profit before including foreign or home entertainment dollars.  All three of those films – Finding Nemo, Bruce Almighty and Spy Kids 3D – cost less than $100 million. 

YOU CAN’T RELY ON DVD FOREVER – Do you remember a time, a long, long time ago, when the video business was the savior of the film industry?  Do you remember when it crashed and burned?  Do you remember why Disney ended up abandoning the hyper-praised 7-year release schedule for classic product and went the opposite direction, bastardizing its most precious titles with second-level sequels that were really intended to go straight to video?

Has it occurred to anyone that the novelty of owning DVDs will eventually wear off and that “eventually” is not a very long time in this business? 

Sure, films like Terminator 3 and Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle and The Hulk have a legitimate shot at black ink thanks to the precocious DVD sell-thru market.  But is that the business that studios want to be in?  

Back in the video boom days, people used to say, “You can’t lose money making these pictures at this price.”  We’re hearing the same thing these days.  But not only can you lose money… the costs are getting so high that someone is eventually going to lose a fortune. 

MAY IS MONEY, THE REST IS UNKNOWN – There are no dates that scream success outside of the first week of May anymore.  But the rest of the month, this year, was also pretty amazing in terms of opening movies.  I’m not sure the summer ever quite recovered from the four $67 million-plus openings this May.  Of the group of four, I believe that only two (Matrix Reloaded and Finding Nemo) would open to similar numbers later in the summer.  But even then, the two would probably open a little less brightly.  I generally believe that a great movie will open on any date, established or not.  Indeed, the three top performers of this summer have opened on “off” dates, a week before Memorial Day, a weekend after Memorial Day and the weekend after July 4 weekend. 

FATIGUE DOES HAPPEN – If there is one real mystery this summer that has to be solved by the brightest minds, it is The Fatigue of Summer 2003.  It’s not just a second-weekend drop issue.  It’s opening weekend.  It’s weekend three.  It’s the whole kit and caboodle.  It’s real clear… we haven’t seen an opening over $50 million since The Hulk, half a summer ago.  I’d love to believe that it was the films.  But that’s a sucker bet. 

I’m not saying that there is no solution or that films, like Pirates, cannot overcome the ennui.  But the films that are the most successful do not make the season.  Limiting the losses on the failures and maximizing the mid-range successes is, for studios releasing a full slate of films, critical.  The Lizzie Maguire Movie and Freaky Friday are both going to be major cash cows for Disney, not as impressive as Nemo and Pirates, but would be enough on their own to turn around the perception of the season for a few of this summer’s less successful studios. 

What did happen to Tomb Raider 2?  “No one really liked the first one” is not a sufficient answer.  Would the film have opened to less than $35 million in May?  Might it have opened to over $50 million by coming out before The Angels? 

MOVIES NEED TO BE READY EARLIER – It seems like 80 percent of the big studio movies this summer were not ready to be screened until the very last minute…. the last minute in Hollywood time. 

The result has been a number of overlong, overindulgent films that were close to being good enough to please audiences as intended.  It also precluded the proper care and feeding of the media by studios that know better.  (Not all of them do.) 

Entertainment journalism is not a confrontational forum, as a rule.  Yet, as films are held more precious, more tightly, more arrogantly, the result was and will always be backlash. 

Studios acted much like they thought Lara Croft did in her greatly misunderstood sequel (tee-hee!), cutting herself so her blood would attract the shark, then punching him in the nose and riding him to the surface.  It was only a movie, guys!  A bad movie!  In real life, the shark eats the bleeder.   Yum, Reloaded.  Yum, Hulk.  Yum, T3.  Only the Pirates knew how to kill the shark… blast them with an undeniable movie.  Not everyone stocks that kind of cannonball.

$200 MILLION IS THE NEW $100 MILLION – Remember when $100 million was a big deal?  This year, there will be eight $200 million movies.  A decade ago, there were eight $100 million movies.  Funny how that works, huh?  The only films that I project profits for of over $100 million (all in), all grossed over $200 million domestic.

You can gross $100 million and lose money.   You can gross $150 million and worry about when you will hit black.  $200 million… a definite winner… a blockbuster… the standard.  

SEQUELS DO WORK/BAD SEQUELS ARE BAD – Critics can complain all they like, sequels still get “product” in the game and five of this summer’s twelve $100 million domestic grosser were sequels.  And for all the sequelitis hypemesiters, there were four $100 millionaires last year and five the year before. 

It is more than a sequel issue.  Only five of the 20 most profitable films this summer (Pirates of the Caribbean, Daddy Day Care, 28 Days Later, Johnny English and Bend It Like Beckham) can be considered original in any way.  Only two of the titles are from this country.  And one of them originated from a theme park ride.

What the studios need to get a hold of are sequels that do not work.  Why?  They do not work.  The era of sequels assured of passing by the grosses of the original are over.  It can go either way now.  And if you’re spending a load to get the elements back in place, you might well be putting a gun to your own head without any real upside.  Image is great.  The ability to make people money always makes you more popular.

THE R IS BACK – Three of the twelve $100 million movies this summer were rated R.  Last year, there was only 1 film that got to $100 million with an R… and it needed Tom Hanks to do it. 

As with so many things, the answer is that all that matters is the film itself.  It should be noted that all three R rated hits – Matrix Reloaded, T3 and Bad Boys II – were sequels with major elements to sell.  I guess we’ll be waiting on the original that breaks the tape. 

SEEMS LIKE OLD TIMES - So, Harrison Ford did not take off playing against type.  But Eddie Murphy, Johnny Depp, Jim Carrey and Arnold Schwarzenegger all had strong box office performances this summer.  John Singleton made his return to the high-B/low-A list of film directors.  And through the rest of the year, Steve Martin and Jack Nicholson also got boosts, with Bill Murray heading right at us.

Thanks for joining me for the last 15 weeks…. See you as the Oscar parade begins in earnest.

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