..Gary
Dretzka
..Noah
Forrest
..Leonard
Klady
..David
Poland
..Douglas
Pratt
..Ray
Pride
..Kim
Voynar
..Michael
Wilmington
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Week 10: Season's ChangeSeasons change. But in Hollywood, seasons change within seasons.
Universal Studios has been dominant in the last six weeks with a record three $50 million openings in a row and, in turn, three $100 million-plus movies in a row. But it has been a good summer for almost everyone. Disney/Pixar has been over the moon about being under the sea. Eddie Murphy is taking Revolution/Columbia to $100 million. Fox won big by pushing X2 out early.
And now, The Jerry Bruckheimer period of summer. Once we get past the Full Throttle Lobotomy and The (Potential) Governor Goes Wild, Jerry goes back to back at two different studios, with Pirates of The Caribbean at Disney and Bad Boys II at Columbia. The buzz on both films is good.
Universal gets a few weeks of quiet before going back-to-back-to-back with Johnny English, Seabiscuit and American Wedding. This studio is reminding me of my college days, trying to jam every class in the same day so I could have the rest of the week off. Phew.
You may not have noticed, but Disney’s summer is pretty Disney-like for a change. There is all the controversy (zzzzz) about releasing a PG-13 under the Disney banner. But Disney has an all-kids’ summer. Lizzie Maguire, Nemo, Pirates and Freaky Friday. And the kid’s product is pretty much their big guns for the year, with the exception of The Alamo at Christmas. But even that project was taken out of Ron Howards’ hands when he wanted it to be R rated and Disney wanted a PG-13 film. The studio has some nice arty films in the fall, including the Bruckheimer produced drama, Veronica Guerin. But it’s a small world after all at the mouse house.
Warner Bros. is The Gun Club with Matrix Reloaded and T3. They’ve squirted out a few little guppies. Late in the summer, they will try to separate Church and Skate, with Charlotte Church in I’ll Be There and the boarder epic, Grind.
Columbia seems to have been infected by being on the old MGM lot. Their summer is all about stars. Eddie Murphy, Harrison Ford, CamDrewLucy, Will Smith, Martin Lawrence, Jen-U-Fleck, Colin Farrell and Samuel L. Jackson.
And while 20th Century Fox is hoping that The League will be a successful bookend to X2, after they took a Wrong Turn From Justin To Kelly Who Were Down With Love. Fox Searchlight is working hard to rock the world with 28 Days Later. They know that they have a great audience film… of only they can rise above the noise. The 1258 screen opening this week is very, very unusual for the studio that usually opens very carefully.
Paramount and MGM are practically one-woman studios, with Legally Blonde 2 leading the lion and Lara Croft going up the mountain. But Paramount’s summer memory that will linger is probably The Italian Job.
DreamWorks is having a barely there summer, with Sinbad and, uh… well, the DreamWorks release I am excited about is their Shrek & Fiona Honeymoon Storybook, which is being given away to ticket buyers for Sinbad. Let’s just hope that the storybook is not more fun than the movie.
And New Line asked the question, which is dumb and which is dumberer: The Real Cancun of Dumb & Dumberer? Neither film worked out very well, but they close with Freddy, Jason and someone named Mandy Moore. Unless she’s James Bond’s daughter, fuggedaboudit.
NEW CHARTS!!!
After weeks and weeks and weeks of not sticking my neck too far out, the chopping block calls. Maybe it’s the Independence Day thing. But I finally decided to move forward with the Profit Projection chart that, as it turns out, brings the whole thing together. Or at least it does for me.
The methodology is not really defined on the page. The better to cover my ass, my dears. But basically, it’s production costs, marketing costs and major points players versus estimated rentals, home video/DVD rental and sales, foreign box office calculated to a percentage specific to each film and other estimated ancillaries. Of course, there is a coarseness to it all. And with the co-production deals that rule the business today, breaking down profit for each different pocket is near impossible. But I still decided to take a shot at it.
Once specific clarification… the estimated domestic gross for profit is divined by working backwards from the various profit centers. When you see something like a $0 note for EDGP, it is a theoretical. Of course, Whale Rider, as a for instance, would not generate millions in domestic video if it didn’t do some theatrical business. But I am projecting that Newmarket will cover their relatively modest costs of acquisition and distribution on this picture in video, given the profile of the film, which should help convince Blockbuster and major retailers to push the film when it arrives for home consumption.
Please keep in mind that this is the first week of profit estimates and there may be some adjustments in next week’s column. Let me know if you have any issues… calmly.
.Summer Movie Chart
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