..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

Week 8: At The Hump

It’s an odd thing, reaching the middle of the summer when so many major films have yet to show themselves.  Big Green is really the Hump Boy of Summer 2003.  Ironic, considering that ILM decided not to do a nude scene, a la Terminator. 

Fully aware that this upcoming weekend is a clearing of the summer throat, seven weeks in there are seven films – maybe only six – that are or are going to be $100 million movies.  There have been only five additional major studio releases in those seven weeks, none of the added five expected to be $100 million movies, though the two young teen focused films, Lizzie Maguire and Holes, have done quite well for themselves. 

Starting with The Hulk, I count 10 second-half films that are serious about the $100 million mark:

American Wedding
Bad Boys II
Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle
League of Extraordinary Gentlemen
Legally Blonde 2
Pirates of the Caribbean
SWAT
Terminator 3
Tomb Raider 2  

I count another 4 that are dead serious about doing as well as Holes ($60 million to date) or better:

Freaky Friday
Seabiscuit
Sinbad
Spy Kids 3-D

There are 4 wildcards out there, that could catch on, but probably have some limitations, the most likely financial breakout being Johnny English and the most likely critical breakout being Matchstick Men:

Gigli
How To Deal
Johnny English
Matchstick Men

At to that another 8 major arthouse releases:

28 Days Later
Camp
Dirty Pretty Things
Garage Days
Le Divorce
Magdalene Sisters
Shaolin Soccer
Swimming Pool

That’s a crowded parade.

The tale of two summers is a very real phenomenon, now more than ever.  It wasn’t long ago that the Memorial Day Weekend movie seemed to set the tone for the entire summer.  Now, besides the traditional MDW movie consistently moving a week earlier, all the May hype seems to be settled out by the end of June. 

Last year, Spider-Man and Star Wars remained strong memories of the summer, but Men in Black II and XXX and eventually Signs.  There was also the phenomenon of My Big Fat Greek Wedding, rising up to keep things interesting, especially as MiBII and XXX ended up being so disappointing for so many.  Goldmember was this massive hit, yet seems like a faint experience.  XXX and Road to Perdition did okay, but seemed to fade. 

The second half of Summer 2003 seems sure to be defined by surprises, even if the closest thing to an original major, major release is The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, which is being targeted as one of the few expected bombs of the season.  The real underdogs of the Second Half are Pirates of the Caribbean, Bad Boys II and S.W.A.T., which probably works great for Columbia after a summer of overdogs. 

But there is some bad news, much of which I went into in Monday’s Special Edition column.  But in the first seven weekends of last summer, there were four $160 million-plus weekends.  After that, none.  In spite of a $52 million start for Men in Black II, a $60 million start for Signs and a $72 million start for Goldmember, no cigar.

But the tone will be set by more than money. 

Will The Hulk overcome the negativity and break out?  Will America fall back in love with Will Smith?  Will Terminator 3 compliment or conflict with The Matrix Reloaded?  Are high seas movies going to be a new trend, with Master & Commander still due for the holidays? 

Will Seabiscuit become a beloved movie with the legs – ha ha – to make a run all the way to Oscar?  Will one of the art films, like 28 Days Later, break out and go mainstream?  Will one of the kids films become a phenom?  Is 3-D back?  And have we seen Charlie’s Angels in the commercials and trailers or is there more to chew on in the full movie? 

There is still a lot of room for magic… where we find it, we’ll never know.

It’s going to be a long second half.  Pack a lunch.

. Summer Movie Chart
. Boxoffice
. Buzz
. Quality
. Profitability

Email David Poland