..Gary
Dretzka
..Noah
Forrest
..Leonard
Klady
..David
Poland
..Douglas
Pratt
..Ray
Pride
..Kim
Voynar
..Michael
Wilmington
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Week Six
Double your pleasure, double your fun…
Welcome to the first weekend of Summer 2003 that is making a serious run at double $100 million movies. It took until mid-June last year for the studios to get up the grit to take a serious shot at it, although it could be argued that Universal didn’t really expect The Bourne Identity to get all the way to $122 million when they release the film on June 14. Warner Bros. had a better idea of what they had in Scooby Doo.
In 2001, the double double-00s didn’t happen until June 22nd’s release of The Fast & The Furious and Dr. Dolittle 2. You could make an argument that studios were going for it on June 8 with the release of Swordfish and Evolution. But only before people saw Evolution.
In 2000, there was some effort to turn the trick in May, with Shanghai Noon joining Mission Impossible: 2 on Memorial Day weekend. But the kicky comedy was probably always headed towards the $70 million to $80 million mark at best. Once again, the first serious double $100 million effort was the Chicken Run/Me, Myself & Irene combo on June 23.
In 1999, it was Tarzan & The General’s Daughter on June 18. 1n 1998, Dr. Dolittle and Out of Sight. In 1997, Batman & Robin and my Best Friend’s Wedding on June 20. 1996, Eraser & The Hunchback of Notre Dame on June 21.
Seeing any trends?
The clearest one is the combination of a big “family” movie and a big “adult” movie… or at least an older teen movie. Scooby Doo, Dr. Dolittle 2, Chicken Run, Tarzan, Dr. Dolittle, Batman & Robin, The Hunchback of Notre Dame and so on.
So why are we getting the Finding Nemo/The Italian Job combo on the weekend after Memorial Day instead of late June? Blame Fox.
Last year, on the heels of Universal’s establishment of the first weekend of May as the start of summer with the Mummy franchise (Parts 1 & 2), Fox and LucasFilm decided to beat Memorial Weekend to the punch by releasing Star Wars: Episode Two – Attack of the Clones two weekends after Spider-Man. $110 million later, a new slot was launched.
This year, The Matrix Reloaded’s $134 million long weekend confirmed the value of the slot.
Even better, Daddy Day Care may have built a new family hammock in between the two May megaliths, grossing more on its own than the two wide releases in the second weekend slot (Unfaithful and The New Guy) from last year.
The added bait of Bruce Almighty may, however, be too much of a good thing. Three of the Top 11 openings of all time in one May. That is a big monkey for studios to start chasing. The question is, did the Bruce Almighty choice that didn’t give The Matrix Reloaded an “open” second weekend really cost Warner Bros. money? And how long before someone tries to mine a $60 million-plus opening in the second weekend of May?
The ultimate truth is, it is still the movie, not the slot. Slots offer specific opportunities. The first weekend offers the first “big” movie in months…a definite advantage. Memorial Day offers a long weekend and a movie going habit. But the “what ifs” have to be flying already?
What number could The Matrix Reloaded have done over a 5.2-day Memorial Day weekend? Should Finding Nemo have gone after the Daddy Day Care slot? How many massive openings can May hold? Does any film need more than one weekend to play out in the open anymore?
Next summer, the calendar will have more direct influence on the choices. Instead of a five-weekend May, it’s four weekends, with Universal’s Van Helsing leading the way on May 7, which I still say is a superstitious decision, as opposed to launching April 30. Nonetheless, there is nothing in the May 14 slot as of yet. (Shrek 2 has moved later into the summer.) Maybe if Miramax decides they love Ella Enchanted, they will make the move to the 14th. New Line could secure the slot by even hinting that they are sticking The Mask 2, which will probably skew younger than the original, in there. Or Fox could slip in with Garfield. On May 21, Joe Carnahan’s Mission Impossible:3 and Wolfgang Peterson’s Troy are both slotted… one will move. (It will be Troy, unless MI:3 doesn’t actually start in August because of script issues.) The month closes with Roland Emmerich’s return (and return to Fox), The Day After Tomorrow.
Four Fridays. Four big movies. Only one established franchise. But have no doubt, you will know more than you want to about Van Helsing by the time it rolls around next year. And in the “fifth” weekend, which will actually be in June? Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban. Oy.
But what of the first big 2003 double play? If Shrek stays on June 18, a combo with Troy could be “the one.”
I SEE SPOTS: The second weekend television spots for Bruce Almighty are amusing me. They have changed things up by using the song, “What If God Were One Of Us?,” which turns up in the movie. But still, we get the same old images that have been selling the movie so well, so far. Well… they did add a shot of Jennifer Aniston bobbling her own breasts… they seem bigger, you know?
Also, Fox’s spots for Wrong Turn have been turning up with greater regularity as the week has progressed. I’ll be in line, waiting, on Friday. And once I get to the front of the line and buy my popcorn, the three other paying customers and me will watch Wrong Turn.
.Summer Movie Chart
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