..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

Week Five
Enough Counter-Programming To Choke On

Perspective is a fascinating thing.  Do you remember what opened against Star Wars: Week 2 – Attack Of The Grosses and Spider-Man: Weekend Four?  Do you remember anything important about last May’s movie line-up other than those two films?

Insomnia, $26 million.  Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron, $23 million. Enough, $17 million.

That’s a lot of moolah, even over four days and even against the two megaliths. 

This year, there are only two major films arriving for the holiday; Bruce Almighty and The In-Laws.  Next week, there are there big films coming out: Finding Nemo, The Italian Job and Fox’s publicity-retarded thriller, Wrong Turn.  (Did Fox pick that up just to try and beat Lion’s Gate’s Cabin Fever to the market with the added drawing power of Eliza Dushku?  Hmmm…) 

That is the inverse of last year, when the three films arrived for Memorial Day and two opened the weekend after  (Sum of All Fears, $31 million and Undercover Brother, $12 million.)   

Let’s tally – One comedy last year, but it didn’t open.   Two this year, but one with a big smooookin’ gun and the other looking to be slotted for Undercover Brother-Ville (even if the film is vastly inferior).  The thing is, Universal is not going to be satisfied with an opening this weekend as big as the biggest of last years players, $31 million.  The good news is that X2 is not nearly as strong going into this weekend as Spider-Man was last year.  It is a non-issue, except for screen count.  But The Matrix Reloaded will probably be bigger in its second weekend than Clones was last year.  So there seems to be room for a $40 million-plus opening…

Two pocket thrillers last year, Insomnia and Enough, opened pretty well, with $43 million between them.  But we’ll have to wait until next weekend to see what The Italian Job does.  It’s a better movie than The Sum of All Fears and a lot more accessible than Insomnia, but it doesn’t have the names to assure a huge start.  Paramount has a hit in its hands, I believe.  But they should have pushed for this weekend, in my opinion.  They are not going to have a huge opening.  But they will have legs.  And my guess is that an $18 million start over this weekend would have led to the same $15 million weekend they are likely to have next week… only with a head start.

Finding Nemo vs. Spirit is no contest.    Monster’s Inc opened to a monster $63 million on a non-holiday weekend two Novembers ago.  The question is, would there be enough screens on the planet for a weekend of Reloaded, Bruce and Nemo (which features a shark named Bruce, btw)?  My guess is that Universal would have gone with Bruce on the 30^th had Nemo hit this weekend.  But that’s water under the obvious pun. 

Over the two weekends last year, opening totals of $109 million.  This year, no less than $130 million.  Maybe as much as $150 million. 

All this number noodling is not terribly focused.  But a theme I believe in does emerge.  It’s the movies, stupid.

People are always trying to ride a trend.  But Jim Carrey beats the Jack Ryan franchise or Robin Williams and Al Pacino.  Pixar films released by Disney beat any other animated films.  And the rest get to clean up the crumbs.  Should Warner Bros. have let The In-Laws find a safer slot? Probably.  Is Fox just pissing in the water with Wrong Turn?  Probably.  Will The Italian Job be The Bourne Identity of 2003, opening almost anywhere and legging out $100 million?  Probably. 

The Hulk is less than a month away.  There is a lot of money on the table between now and then.  The only real mystery is whether any of the June 13 films will emerge, and how the battle will go between the three little angels and the big bad boy in green on the 27^th. 

Of course, we haven’t gotten to the scariest stretch of the summer yet.  July 2 – 18: T3, Legally Blonde 2, Sinbad, Pirates of the Caribbean, The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen and Bad Boys II represent roughly $740 million of production costs going into release in 16 days, pre-P&A.  That’s going to be over $1 billion in play after the season’s two likely $300 million movies (The Matrix Reloaded/The Hulk), a third highly possible $300 million film (Finding Nemo) and a $200 million movie (X2) have already feasted.  And that’s not even taking Johnny English, Universal’s Rowan Atkinson comedy that has been a massive success in Europe, into account, since it is a lot cheaper than any other major release in those 16 days. 

If I were Fox and DreamWorks, I’d be looking to move.  Something has to give and no matter how good their titles might turn out to be, they have the hardest sells in this period.  Sinbad could ride what is looking like a nice wake from Pirates, which was being beaten severely all last year and is beginning to smell big.  August 1 looks awfully open for an action movie about now.  Move The League.  Unless Pirates is a disaster, this is not going to be pretty. 

RELOADED:  Weekday grosses on The Matrix Reloaded are running about 10 to 15 percent behind Spider-Man’s opening week last year.  If that translates to the weekend, we’re looking at a four-day weekend for Reloaded about 35 percent behind last weekend or about $59 million.  That would put the film at around $225 million by Monday night. 

Daddy Cay Care will be looking to be pushing $70 million by the end of this weekend, but Bruce could do some damage.  Sony started running some more DDC spots, including on the pricey American Idol.  Gotta get as much as they can before Nemo crests.

X2: X Men United is looking like it’s going to have to crawl past $200 million, despite the $86 million start.  $190 million is within reach this weekend.  $210 is looking like the final, a 35 percent improvement on the original.  The question Fox has to ask itself now is whether a third film can rise again to the $250 million range or whether they’ve maxed out their X-Men audience. 

. Summer Movie Chart
. Boxoffice
. Buzz
. Quality
. Profitability

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