..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

Week Three

The focus on May is becoming crystal clear while the rest of summer remains a little murky. 

The clearest unavoidable trend item is the repeated confirmation of the value of that first weekend in May.  Paramount & DreamWorks kind of created the slot with Deep Impact’s $41 million start in 1998.  In 1999, it was Universal and The Mummy scoring $43 million.  DreamWorks’ Gladiator took $35 million in the slot in 2000, which represented a dip, even though Gladiator would leg its way to $188 million and a Best Picture Oscar.

But it was 2001 that marked the start of something truly remarkable.  The Mummy Returns’ $68 million was the then second highest opening of all time, a 58% increase in the opening from the original and ultimately, a 30% increase in domestic box office over the original.  Not only did this fuel the excitement about the first weekend in May, but it prompted a wave of sequels that for the first time saw improving on the original’s numbers as a real possibility. 

Spider-Man’s $115 million start in the slot last year reigns as the biggest ever, likely to stay on top for a while.  And X2: X-Men United’s $86 million start represented a 57% improvement on the original’s opening, almost exactly what happened with The Mummy Returns.  If the rest of that box office logic follows, X2 will top out at around $205 million domestic. 

And X2 was not the only winner last weekend.  The Lizzie Maguire Movie opened to a somewhat stunning $17 million. Considering that the demo for the film is about 20 percent of the demo for X-Men, it is an amazing feat. 

And don’t expect the trend to stop anytime soon.  Universal already has one of the major buzz titles of 2004, Van Helsing, lined up for May 7.  The only question for The U is whether Friday, April 30 is off limits for any reason other than superstition. 

THIS WEEKEND, Daddy Day Care goes out in more than 3200 venues with God knows how many prints.  Interestingly, you have to go back to 1996, when the second weekend of May was still “the start of summer” and Twister did $41 million to find a major opening in that second weekend.  The tradition has become that the third weekend of the month is where the “second blockbuster” lives, beating Memorial Day Weekend by a week.  Eddie Murphy’s best start so far was the $42 million kick-off of Nutty Professor 2: The Klumps in 2000.  As amazing as it feels to be saying it, I imagine that Daddy Day Care is likely to be Murphy’s new top opener. 

THE MATRIX RELOADED is all the talk of the moment, with Time Magazine’s “non-review” rape under Richard Corliss’ byline this week, and a planned review by Richard Schickel next week, six full days before the alleged review embargo date.  (Coverage in USA Today  and my own Hot Button column, not just once but twice kicked things off.) But swimming a little under the radar is Disney/Pixar’s Finding Nemo, which has a real shot at becoming the second highest grossing Disney animated film of all time behind The Lion King. 

BRUCE ALMIGHTY is not getting that kind of buzz.  Nor is Down With Love.  The dueling duo of comedies (releasing on the 23^rd and the 16^th, respectively) each take on The Matrix Reloaded, albeit with very different tools.  But both films could end up eclipsed by the May 30 releases of Finding Nemo and The Italian Job, both of which could turn out to be among the leggiest films of the summer.  That said, Bruce Almighty not only boasts Jim Carrey, but also director Tom Shadyac, whose much maligned Patch Adams still did $135 million, more than five times its $25 million opening, so maybe Bruce Almighty could turn out to be leggier than anyone expects right now. 

Does anyone else think it is a coincidence that McG’s Charlie’s Angels 2 and a flesh-eating zombie movie (28 Days Later) are arriving on the same day? As Reloaded might suggest, cause and effect.

I might have to recuse myself on How To Deal.  I went to high school with the screenwriter and have seen the director in her bathing suit.  Sigh…

The biggest mysteries of the summer remain in August releases Uptown Girls, The Fighting Temptations and Matchstick Men.  Uptown Girls smells of danger, with the ever-bizarre Brittany Murphy as a down-on-her-luck rich girl who takes on a pre-teen cutie.  Meanwhile, The Fighting Temptations’ director, Jonathan Lynn, can bring the hammer to a comedy.  It reads like Sweet Home Alabama meets Sister Act… this time, Cuba Gooding, Jr. doesn’t end up in drag.  But is this a hit or a whole different kind of drag?  Finally, Matchstick Men has every element you could ask for – Ridley Scott, Nic Cage, con men, a cute kid (Uptown Girls’ Dakota Fanning) and a script from the guy who did the highly underrated Best Laid Plans.  But still…

What kind of “film critic” leads his story with quotes from someone he claims not to respect?  Could it be the same kind of hack who adds dirty language to his middle-aged prose to try to keep up with his new  Maxim-ized editors?  You decide for yourself.  Here is the piece.

. Summer Movie Chart
. Boxoffice
. Buzz
. Quality
. Profitability

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