..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

Week Two

The train leaves the station just after midnight tonight.

It is going to be a fascinating summer.  X2: X-Men United has become a rather bizarre landmark by no fault of Fox.  People seem to have this rather misguided idea that last year’s $115 million opening for Spider-Man is going to be duplicated again soon.

I guess that these are many of the same people who thought that Spider-Man was going to threaten the record worldwide box office of Titanic.  They were only off by a little more than a billion dollars.  In fact, there still has not been a title other than Titanic to pass $1 billion worldwide, no matter how huge the opening weekends get. 

Spider-Man’s opening last year was not only a record breaker.  It was a record smasher.  It was the biggest first weekend by $25 million, a 27% increase over the previous record holder, Harry Potter 1.   It was the biggest per-screen average for a 200+ screen release in history by over $6000 per screen over the three days… or a 25% increase over the next highest per-screen (Attack of the Clones).   

Of course, the venue count versus the number of prints actually in release is a part of this game.  And Fox will be releasing prints in almost double the number that they will admit in their screen count.   But if X2 scores the second highest opening on the first weekend of May, it will have more than $68 million in the (gross) bank by Monday.  And in what lunatic world could that be a disappointment?

Interestingly, only one film that opened with over $59 million has ever missed the $200 million mark.  That was Fox’s Planet of the Apes remake.  On the other hand, the next closest to missing was Universal’s The Mummy Returns, the current #2 best opener in that slot, with only $202 million domestic.

The reality for X2 is as simple as it will be for any film this year.  People like the film.  It has a niche appeal.  It will open.  These are all the things we said about the first X-Men movie. 

Clones opened 25% better than Phantom Menace.  Two Towers opened 32% better than Fellowship.   The Mummy Returns opened 58% better than The Mummy.  So the range of possibilities is wide.  A 30% increase for X-Men is a $70 million opening.  If it happens, champagne should pop at Fox.  Period.

ANOTHER PHENOMENON this year is that industry watchers all appear to have a couple of titles that they think will flop.  But no one seems to have a much deeper list than that.  And everyone seems to have a large number of titles that they think will do well, even if there are a limited number of films that these same people are anxious to see. 

The other big conversation seems to be a divide between people who believe that the R rating won’t slow down The Matrix Reloaded at all and others who believe that the film will easily be the summer’s biggest smash. 

The evidence is not conclusive.  Hannibal was a “hard” R and managed a $58 million opening two years ago outside of the summer season.  The Matrix opened out of season to $28 million and hit $150 million in 8 weekends.  Is there any reason to doubt that The Matrix Reloaded will not double both figures?

THE FIRST CASUALTY of the summer is Warner Bros’ Exorcist: The Beginning, which was moved out of the summer to an unknown fall date. 

ON THE CHARTS, the films that have most quickly moved up are Terminator 3, Daddy Day Care and The Italian Job.  Because these charts are so new, most of the downward motion is settling and not a sign of films losing steam in any way.  But these three films do see to be picking up steam with the chattering class. 

The film that seems to be losing traction, much to my surprise, is Legally Blonde 2.  Yet, at the same time, everyone seems to be on Reese Witherspoon’s bandwagon.  Go figure.

This summer seems to be shaping up as a good one for a number of stars who some in the media have written off.  Arnold Schwarzenegger, Eddie Murphy, Mark Wahlberg, Will Smith, Johnny Depp, John Singleton and Angelina Jolie all have movies coming out that hope to make a lot of money.

AS OF TONIGHT, the only May movies that will not have started screening for much of the press corps are The In Laws, Bruce Almighty and the Fox pick-up, Wrong Turn.  Make of this what you will. 

LIZZIE MAGUIRE is coming at the same time as X2.  The film may well turn out to be a significant profit center for Disney.  Though it could reasonably be called Cute American Teen Goes To Europe, Part 2 (the first was What A Girl Wants), this inoffensive fluff ball is going to be catnip to young girls and not stomach churning for adults and teen boy dates.  With a budget under $20 million, Lizzie is virtually in profit already, given ancillaries.  People are worried about “reality movies,” but these low-priced niche films are never far away and, while they won’t make anyone retirement wealthy, they are the front line soldiers in any studio schedule.

   

. Summer Movie Chart
. Boxoffice
. Buzz
. Quality
. Profitability

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