.6 Days: 3.18.03
.2 Weeks: 3.13.03
.3 Weeks: 3.06.03
.4 Weeks: 2.27.03
.5 Weeks: 2.20.03
.6 Weeks: 2.13.03
.The Nominations
.Pre-Nominations
.7 Weeks: 2.06.03
.8 Weeks: 1.30.03
.9 Weeks: 1.23.03
.10 Weeks: 1.16.03
.11 Weeks: 1.9.03
.12 Weeks: 1.2.03
.13 Weeks:12.26.02
.14 Weeks: Part 2
.14 Weeks: Part I
.15 Weeks:12.12.02

..News
..Nominations
..Oscar Race Charts

..Gary Dretzka
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Ray Pride
..Patricia Vidal

..Scoreboard
..Charts

3 Days Away
March 20, 2003

Such a short period before the scheduled ceremony and still, so few answers. 

Sometime Friday, a final decision will be made about whether to move forward.  That decision could be changed based on some extreme event occurring.  But I think it is safe to say that if the show has not been re-scheduled by cocktail hour Friday, it’s 99.5 percent unlikely that it will be re-scheduled.

While all this is going on, the Independent Spirit Awards is going on, unabated, unashamed and red carpeted.  Dawn Hudson has basically taken the position that the ISAs are quite different than the Oscars and that rather than trying to keep things buttoned up, they will let it all hang out.  Even though I agree with the politics of many of the people who attend, I fear that the whole thing will roll over the edge from open and honest to smug and gloating.  There are few things less attractive than a tent full of people who all know how right they are… regardless of their politics.

Peter Jackson and Fran Walsh are staying in Wellington.  While rumors about Cate Blanchett and Nicole Kidman have circulated, both have confirmed their intention to appear.  But both have the left the door open to not making it due to scheduling conflicts.  Will Smith has quietly withdrawn. 

No one, except foreign language nominee Aki Kaurismaki, has gone on the record at this time and said, “I don’t approve.”  Instead, we are getting some new pins.  Ah, did you miss all the ribbons?   They’re back!  And of course, there will a press conference today to launch them.  What’s the point of doing anything if there isn’t a crowd? 

I have spent a lot of column inches in recent days on the issue of delaying the ceremony.  Here are a few more:

I do not buy the “don’t let the bad guys win by changing our daily lives” argument… the simple reality is that no one would be saying that about having the Oscars on September 15, 2001.  I am now on the borderline of insulting people for having an opinion, but I see so much of this as simple hypocrisy. 

First, America is the aggressor in this war.  Whether you agree with this action or not, you have to admit that our nation is invading a sovereign nation to enforce our will.  If these were the Iraqi Oscars, the argument might work.  I’m not sure we can attack a nation and then blame them for ruining our fun.

Shouldn’t we be even more sober, given that we are making the choice to take lives and to give up the lives of some of our own soldiers in, so the argument goes, an effort to keep even more innocents from losing their lives?   Doesn’t a parent have a responsibility to keep a straight face while taking a belt to their child?  Some believe all corporal punishment is wrong.  But if you choose that form of discipline, laughing at the child while they cry would probably be considered abusive by most people.

Secondly, if there were any action on American soil, you can be sure that these awards would be postponed.  Hundreds, if not thousands, of Iraqis will die at our nation’s hands this weekend.  Americans will also die on the battlefield.  The shadow hangs over us all.  But not like something happening at home.  If Americans believed that thousands of dead Americans would litter Iraq this weekend, there would be no show.  Nothing would really be different.  Except for the proximity.  “Out of sight, out of mind” is not a strong moral position.

Third, “you don’t have to watch it” is a terrible argument.  Right up there with “I don’t want to watch 24 hours a day of war coverage.”  Here’s an idea… rent some videos.  This issue is about whatever pretense to any morality is left in the Academy.  What do people say when you suggest such a thing?  “The Academy doesn’t know anything about morality.”  Well, for all of my shouting, I hate to think that.  I don’t want to believe that.  But the more this whole things seems hinged on celebrity willingness to self-exploit, the less the Academy has a chance to every be seen taking the high ground.  That makes me sad.

Finally, the thing that will make me saddest of all.  When this is all over… next Tuesday or Wednesday… no one will care. The Oscars will be just another television special top most people who are not hanging out on Oscarwatch.com.  The war will be just another inconvenience.  Mouthy liberals will still be mocked on O’Reilly.  Rare Hollywood conservatives will still be mocked in the New York Times.  Saddam Hussein will or will not be dead.  We will be on the road to forgetting the war is even happening. Two weeks max.  It will all be “In,” “Out,” and “So Two Weeks Ago.” Just another fad.  Just another bit of product.

The one good thing in all of this?  I have heard from some people who, agree with me or not, have had a lot of interesting things to say.  The passion of the discourse recognizes the glory of humanity.  One thing is clear – New Yorkers are more on edge than people from any other part of the country.  They are bracing for something really unpleasant to happen in their lives.  Let’s all hope and/or pray for that not to happen.  A column full of reader’s e-mails will be into today’s Hot Button.

My predictions:

Chicago
Rob Marshall
Jack Nicholson
Nicole Kidman
Christopher Walken
Catherine Zeta Jones
David Hare
Nia Vardalos
Lilo & Stitch
Bowling For Columbine (or Spellbound)
Nowhere In Africa
Art Direction – Gangs of New York
Cinematography – Conrad Hall
Editing – The Hours
Costume – Chicago
Make-Up – Frida
“I Move On”
John Williams
The Cathedral

Keep an eye out for updates.  These last few days could take on the tone of the last two minutes of a basketball game.

Email David Poland