.5 Weeks: 2.20.03
.6 Weeks: 2.13.03
.The Nominations
.Pre-Nominations
.7 Weeks: 2.06.03
.8 Weeks: 1.30.03
.9 Weeks: 1.23.03
.10 Weeks: 1.16.03
.11 Weeks: 1.9.03
.12 Weeks: 1.2.03
.13 Weeks:12.26.02
.14 Weeks: Part 2
.14 Weeks: Part I
.15 Weeks:12.12.02

..News
..Nominations
..Oscar Race Charts

..Gary Dretzka
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Ray Pride
..Patricia Vidal

..Scoreboard
..Charts

4 Weeks Away
February 27, 2003

The Big Sleep had a bucket of cold water thrown in it this week as Roman Polanski’s victim, Samantha Geimer showed up all over the place, blonde and giggly and full of life, declaring herself to be no victim at all.

I have detailed this issue to some degree in my Tuesday column at The Hot Button.  But the issue for the purpose of this column today is that it is now time for The Second Great Settling, which is to say that no one yet knows how these events are going settle in with the Academy voters.  Anyone who says they know is just playing the odds. 

The odds are, as they were a week ago, that Chicago will remain out front, musical and pleasant, the easiest answer amongst five pictures with question marks.  Writing The Pianist and Polanski off is a fairly safe bet.  I feel now as I felt before that The Pianist is the only film that can beat the Big C.  But the odds are still against it.

While The Golden Globes have become a primary for the Oscars, try as it might the BAFTA Awards are not.  However, I find myself in the unusual position of not being able to argue against a single choice that I wish to mock.  I believe that The Pianist deserves Best Picture and Best Director.  I am happy with Daniel Day Lewis, Nicole Kidman, Catherine Zeta Jones and Christopher Walken taking home prizes, even if they aren’t all my ultimate choices, they are all deserving.  Adaptation and Talk To Her are two wonderful, smart, unique screenplays.  Some hate Phillip Glass’ score for The Hours, but the film wouldn’t work with that emotional metronome.  I can’t argue against the Production Design or Cinematography of Road to Perdition, even if I would probably give both awards to Minority Report first.  City of God’s editing is spectacular and this win is another reason for me to rage against Miramax for not allowing the film to qualify for any nominations other than Best Foreign Language Film.  Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers’ visual effects and costumes are wonderful.  And the make-up in Frida is, with the exception of the jumping eyebrows, excellent. 

I just hope the Academy is so true.

ALSO:  What was clearly the worst news for an Oscar nominee this week?  It has to be Original Screenplay nominee Nia Vardalos, a player that Academy voters seemed likely to want to reward for the enjoyment she brought this year, even if it was lightweight. But the premiere of her CBS sitcom, My Big Fat Greek Family, probably ended her chances of winning in its very first very highly rated, but painfully lacking scene. 

Despite this week’s huge sampling, there is little doubt now that the sitcom from the movie is in deep, deep trouble.  And so, failure is snatched from the jaws of victory.  One thing has always been true of the Academy… they don’t vote for losers. 

And who is the biggest winner in this year’s Academy Award race?  Joe Carnahan.  He didn’t get dick.  But he’s gone from a $3 million feature to one that could cost as much as $150 million, taking the helm of Mission: Impossible 3.  And I have more news for you… Carnahan is the kind of guy who might wake former Oscar winner Robert Towne up and get him to make some real 70s style magic in the third film of the trilogy.  The idea of a director who is not a hyperstylist kind of thrills me here. 

THE BIG MOVE:  20^th Century Fox made a move this week that they hope will cause a strong case of déjà vu.  The last time they had a film shot in the water tank in Baja, Mexico and delayed it from summer to the holidays, they had a minor success called Titanic.  You may have heard of it.  Besides winning Best Picture, its best ever worldwide gross of $1.84 BILLION is almost double the Number Two film, Harry Potter and The Sorcerer’s Stone. 

Fox’s move was for Peter Weir’s Master & Commander, which Fox was calling an Oscar movie over a month ago.  Not surprisingly, there are similar negative rumors out there about this film as there were about Titanic, albeit not as rabid. Likewise, there are those who simply spin the whole thing into Weir being a slow cutter.  My belief is that there is no up side for Fox in pushing the film to November if they don’t believe in it’s potential.  There is Thanksgiving money being freshly re-minted with Harry Potter out of the way for the first time in three years.  But if they thought the film wasn’t special, they can just look at the numbers I Spy put up and know that they could be in harm’s way. 

The 10 films that Peter Weir has made since turning up on the world map as a force with Picnic At Hanging Rock have all be worthwhile. For me, Gallipoli, The Year of Living Dangerously, Witness, The Mosquito Coast, Dead Poet’s Society and Fearless stand as the most remarkable run of films to deeply examine the psyche of men in the modern era of film.  Green Card was a freak.  And The Truman Show, sadly, became a bit unbalanced by Jim Carrey’s stardom.  But Weir is a very special filmmaker and I hope that Master & Commander is worth the wait.

MEANWHILE:  A front-runner to become Miramax’s #2 Oscar film next year, next to Cold Mountain, has emerged.  It’s not Guys & Dolls, which is likely to be a 2004 release, but the now renamed J.M. Barrie’s Neverland.  The film is loaded with Oscar faves and is expected to take Monster’s Ball director Marc Forster to yet a higher level. 

Email David Poland