.6 Weeks: 2.13.03
.The Nominations
.Pre-Nominations
.7 Weeks: 2.06.03
.8 Weeks: 1.30.03
.9 Weeks: 1.23.03
.10 Weeks: 1.16.03
.11 Weeks: 1.9.03
.12 Weeks: 1.2.03
.13 Weeks:12.26.02
.14 Weeks: Part 2
.14 Weeks: Part I
.15 Weeks:12.12.02

..News
..Nominations
..Oscar Race Charts

..Gary Dretzka
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Ray Pride
..Patricia Vidal

..Scoreboard
..Charts

5 Weeks Away
February 20, 2003

These are the moments when The Academy’s date change makes a lot of sense to me.  Do we really need to wait another 32 days to find out who won the Oscar? 

Yes, I know that I have laid out the car wreck that The Academy’s move next year is likely to create.  But the truth is, we’ve on from The Great Settling to The Big Sleep.  Now is when the gremlins go to work.

The Latest Spin -

• The Harvey Backlash has begun.
• Martin Scorsese has campaigned himself out of an Oscar.
• It’s Chicago versus The Hours.
• Everyone hates The Hours.
• The predominantly jewish Academy will vote for The Pianist.
• The Pianist has no chance because of Polanski’s history.
• Catherine Zeta-Jones killed herself by allowing her team to position her as Best Actress at The Golden Globes.
• Meryl Streep would be the leading contender in Best Actress, but was killed by the goof up that made her ineligible for a SAG nomination for The Hours.
• Conrad Hall will get an Oscar for being dead.
• The Academy rarely awards people posthumously.

Sigh…

I’m sure there are more, but you get the idea. 

There is some room for change, but much of the jockeying for position is already done.  Will Sunday’s BAFTA Awards really mean anything?  No.  Will the SAG Awards mean much?  They could mean a little. 

But the truth is, Chicago is a box office success and except for Gangs of New York, which seems to be the most universally disliked 10 Nominee film ever, none of the other films really are.  The only film that I believe is in the running is still The Pianist, which needs to find some new life.  A bunch of journalist writing it will not make it so. 

This Saturday, the ACE gives out their Eddie Awards.  These awards have become pretty good about paving the way for the eventual Oscar winner in the editing category.  While you may not prioritize this, the final count at The Big Show could be affected by this award. 

Next weekend, the Producer’s Guild and the Director’s Guild step up.  The weekend after that, the SAGS.  The weekend after that, nothing.  And the nominations close a few days later.

Based on my current guesses, I think that the Oscar winners will be pretty well spread out. 

According to my latest guesses at who will win in 19 of the categories, Chicago could take the greatest number of Oscars with 4: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress, Best Costume Design and Best Original Song.  I see Gangs of New York with a second-best 3 wins, for Best Director, Cinematography and Art Design.  The Hours and Adaptation with 2 apiece; (Actress & Editing and Best Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, respectively)

Of course, Sound, Sound Editing and Make-Up can change the count even more than my missteps.  But I’m not even taking guesses on those at this point.  Indeed, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers could pull a Matrix and pick up 3 or 4 Oscars itself.  (My better guess would be 2.)

But it seems like the best that Chicago could do in a “sweep” would be six Oscars. 

There is only one mortal lock at this point, in my view… Chris Cooper in Adaptation.  It is the one performance that has gotten raves even from people who did not like the film in which it is contained.  Paul Newman is just too distant and Ed Harris’ make-up is a little too dramatic.  Walken and Reilly have roles that are just too light, in various ways. 

I also tend to feel that any winners in their categories who are not John Nicholson, Nicole Kidman & The Brothers Kaufman will be a real shock.  I just wish people would leave the nose thing alone already.  Nicole Kidman deserves more respect than that for her performance. 

In The “Brown Is The New Black” category, I expect nada.  (That’s “nothing” for those of you who are Spanish-challenged.)   Actually, Frida could pull down Best Make-Up, with only one other (really bad) film in competition.  But that and 3 bucks’ll buy you a burrito.

Chew on the new categories and feel free to chime in… anything to fight off The Big Sleep.

Email David Poland