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7 Weeks Away: 2.06.03 8 Weeks Away: 1.30.03 9 Weeks Away: 1.23.03 10 Weeks Away: 1.16.03 11 Weeks Away: 1.09.03 12 Weeks Away: 1.02.03 13 Weeks Away: 12.26.02 14 Weeks Away: Part 2 14 Weeks Away: Part I 15 Weeks Away: 12.12.02

February 10, 2002

Special Pre-Nomimation Edition

I am amazed - and a little disgusted - with all of the
Oscar prediction pieces popping up today (Monday),
with just one day to wait until we actually know. Why is
this happening? Because, as the old Lotto jingle went,
you have to be in it to win it.

In a year in which the nominations process has become more of a dog and pony show than ever, where humanity has been reduced to marketing and whatever tiny illusions were left have been torn asunder, I continue to argue that we don't have all the answers. And I pray to God that we don't. Because if the current consensus line-up of Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Hours, The Lord of The Rings: The Two Towers and The Pianist is the line-up, then the dark side of the force will have won out.

And I'm not talking about Harvey Weinstein… for a change.

Even in that group of five, there would be rule-breakers. Miramax was thought to be in an either-Gangs-or-Chicago situation. The Two Towers could never happen, because the Academy hates fantasy films and it's a middle film. And The Pianist has not done great business, plus Polanski has been unavailable to promote the film, whether by choice or legal requirement.

That said, pray for some variation or it will get even worse next year as early frontrunner Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King becomes Harvey Weinstein's favorite target, despite his financial interest in the film. (Can he get Guys & Dolls to the screen by next Christmas to join Cold Mountain on Miramax's Oscar slate? We'll see.)

I feel compelled to make some dramatic last-ditch predictions, just like the other kids. But first, a little factual information. This came from Sasha Stone's Oscarwatch.com:

AMPAS Breakdown:
5,739 Total voters
1,315 Actors
459 Producers
430 Executives
409 Writers
409 Sound
368 Public relations
364 Art directors
364 Directors
362 Members-at-large
299 Shorts
247 Music composers, lyricists
217 Visual effects
216 Film editors
170Cinematographers
110 Documentarians

So, if every single Director's Branch voter was to go to one director and they also voted that film for Best Picture, it would not necessarily get a nomination. Likewise, with writers, editors, cinematographers and musicians. The one group that is large enough to secure a Best Picture nomination for a film in a block vote - although it is never that simple - are the actors.

So here are my predictions for tomorrow -

Chicago will receive a load of nominations.

If Nic Cage is nominated for Best Actor and the presumed nods for Meryl Streep and Chris Cooper happen, Adaptation will be nominated for Best Picture.

If Cameron Diaz is nominated as Best Supporting Actress for Gangs of New York, the film will also get a Best Picture nomination.

If Derek Luke gets a Best Actor nomination or Denzel Washington gets a Best Director nomination, Antwone Fisher will have a 90% chance of getting a Best Picture nomination. If both get nominated, the film will be nominated and everyone will be shocked.

No one will have a clue whether Lord of The Rings: The Two Towers is getting nominated for Best Picture until that category is announced.

If Alexander Payne is nominated for Best Director, About Schmidt is in for Best Picture. This goes against my normal system of Oscar belief, but allow me my quirks.

Far From Heaven gets a Best Picture nod only if Julianne Moore, Dennis Quaid and director Todd Haynes are nominated.

The Pianist could be nominated for Best Actor (Adrien Brody) and Best Director (Roman Polanski) and still not get a Best Picture nomination.

Frida could be nominated for Best Actress (Salma Hayak) and Best Supporting Actor (Alfred Molina) and not Best Picture.

The surprises of the day could include Paul Newman not getting nominated and perhaps not a single "person of color" (including blacks and hispanics/latinos) being nominated in the top eight categories, the one with the best shot being Antwone Fisher for his screenplay. Don't be surprised if the Adapted Screenplay for About A Boy pushes one major player out of the category.

That's it. No specifics. Because what's the point? Everyone is predicting from the same pool of eight Best Picture movies and most of the nominations flow from there. More tomorrow.

The next edition of 15 Weeks to Oscar will appear on Thursday.

Email David Poland