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8 Weeks Away: 1.30.03 9 Weeks Away: 1.23.03 10 Weeks Away: 1.16.03 11 Weeks Away: 1.09.03 12 Weeks Away: 1.02.03 13 Weeks Away: 12.26.02 14 Weeks Away: Part 2 14 Weeks Away: Part I 15 Weeks Away: 12.12.02

February 6, 2002

7 Weeks Away

Four days and half a dozen hours from now, I’ll be able to write a real Oscar column again.  This week, as last, the wheels keep spinning. 

What’s been floating out there in front of me most often this last couple of weeks has been the box office issues around the Oscar-push films.  There was a series of pieces about the large number of limited releases in the awards marketplace this year.  Then, there was the run of “critics are out of touch” pieces.  And I suspect that the box office weakness of many of the wannabes could be the next story to show up before the nominations start a whole new news cycle.

There is only one film in serious contention that is currently over $100 million at the domestic box office as of this last weekend.  That’s Lord of The Rings: The Two Towers with $316 million.  The only other serious Oscar contender that seems likely to make it to $100 million is Chicago, which ended last weekend with a reported $51 million and the prospect of a 2000 screen expansion on the horizon. 

There were 23 films that passed $100 million last year and only Rings, Road to Perdition, My Big Fat Greek Wedding and Catch Me If You Can were ever seriously considered as Oscar possibles.  Only one is still legitimately in the race.  What does that say about Hollywood?

And what does it say that as many as three Best Picture nominees are unlikely to ever make it to $50 million, even after their nominations?

Last year, there were three films that had over $50 million in their domestic coffers the weekend before the nominations were announced.  And the other two, In The Bedroom and Gosford Park were at $19 million and $22 million.  But what there was not was this large number of films who have keyed their release plans to awards schedules. 

Of the nine still-serious contenders, six have never been on more than 650 screens, five weekends after 2002 came to a close.  Gangs of New York is the only film to date to really stretch out as wide as it is ever likely to stretch.  Antwone Fisher and About Schmidt have gone as wide as 1300 screens, but no wider.  Chicago is going wide this weekend. 

So where does that leave The Hours, Adaptation, Far From Heaven and The Pianist?  Good question. 

If it were just an issue of money, Frida would be in hot pursuit with $23 million in the domestic bank.  So would Bowling for Columbine, with its $18 million.  But of that Top Nine, which is the consensus pick to make the Best Picture list?  The lowest grosser to date of the group, The Pianist, with $8 million.  

Maybe all of these companies have been drawn to this strategy because last year, the five nominees added $136 million to their haul after nominations came out.  But unfortunately, $100 million of that money came from Rings and A Beautiful Mind, both of which were big box office hits already.  Moulin Rouge was long out of release.  And the two small films added $36 million.  Again, that’s not enough to make any of the five contending films with grosses currently under $20 million into $50 million movies, much less smash hits. 

So what’s the answer?  Only a couple films are going to make the awards-chasing platform release work.  Chicago is clearly the most significant of the group.  But determining success for the other two is more complicated.  Both The Hours and Adaptation could remain financial disappointments, even with nominations.  On the other hand, add $20 million in box office to Antwone Fisher, Far From Heaven or The Pianist and you push them into profit.

And on the next level of Oscar wannabes no longer considered contenders, Miramax did well with Frida and UA’s release of Bowling For Columbine has been a success.  But The 25^th Hour’s $11 million and Narc’s $ 10 million?  Not so great.  And Evelyn, Nicholas Nickelby and The Quiet American are all under $1.5 million.

And one of the most intriguing Oscar-related box office stories is in the Foreign Language category, where Mexico’s The Crime of Father Amaro has outgrossed Spain’s unnominated (because it didn’t need the help) Talk To Her, $5 million to $4 million.

THE WGA NOMINATIONS

Most of the WGA nominations were expected.  In the Adapted Screenplay category, there were two surprises, with the absence of The Pianist and Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.  That said, About A Boy is not only deserving, but also the beneficiary of a lot of hard work by Universal and Tony Angelotti. 

One prominent WGA member pointed out that only four films really pushed hard at the WGA this year: Antwone Fisher, About A Boy and DreamWorks’ Road to Perdition and Catch Me If You Can.  With a success rate of 50 percent for the post-Oscar deadline nominations, expect only three films to push hard next year.

The Originals were a bit odder, with the screenplay for a documentary (Bowling For Columbine) grabbing a nod, Oscar contenders Y tu Mama Tambien and Talk To Her disqualified for not being produced under WGA jurisdiction and all three non-original originals grabbing nods. 

The nominations, obviously, can have no direct effect on Oscar nominations… too late.  But there are some potential reflections.

The next edition of 15 Weeks to Oscar will appear next Thursday.

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